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屈庆:当央行重提防风险,货币政策的宽松周期可能已经结束

2019-04-16     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来源微信公众号“ 屈庆债券论坛”,作者江海证券首席经济学家屈庆。主要内容一、利率市场展望:当央行重提防风险,货币政策的宽松周期可能已经结束利率债投资策略:随着经济基本面企稳由预期走向现实,央行货币政策也将作出相应调整,过于宽松的货币政策….

benwenlaiyuanweixingongzhonghao“ 屈quqingzhaiquanluntan”,作zuozhejianghaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejiaquqing

zhuyaoneirong

yi、利lilvshichangzhanwang:当dangyangxingzhongtifangfengxian,货huobizhengcedekuansongzhouqikenengyijingjieshu

lilvzhaitouzicelue:随suizhuojingjijibenmianqiwenyouyuqizouxiangxianshi,央yangxinghuobizhengceyejiangzuochuxiangyingdiaozheng,过guoyukuansongdehuobizhengcejidiaoheliudongxinghuanjingxianranjiangmianlinshoujinyali。从congyijiduhuobizhengcelihuichuandachulaidezhengcexinhaokan,货huobizhengcedeshoujinyijingzailushang,降jiangzhun、降jiangxiduanqineijiangnanmizongying,资zijinmianguodukuansongdejieduanhuojiangyiqubufufan

zhouyiwanjian,央yangxingwangzhanfabuliaoshangzhouwuzhaokaideyijiduhuobizhengcelihuixinwen稿gao。从congzhecishanshanlaichideyijidulihuizhong,我womensihuxiudaoliaoyixiebutongxunchangdehuobizhengcefengxiangbianhua

shouxian,对duijingjidekanfakaishizhuanxiangjiji。与yuquniansijidulihuixinwen稿gaodecuocixiangbi,一yijidulihuiduidangqianjingjidekanfacong“我woguojingjibaochipingwenfazhan”改gaiwei“我woguojingjichengxianjiankangfazhan”,看kanfamingxianquyuleguan。其qici,未weilaihuobizhengcejidiaochuxianbianjishoujinjixiang。(1)对duinizhouqidiaojiedecuocifangmian,逆nizhouqidiaojiezhongyaoxingyousuojiangdi。(2)对duihuobizhengcejidiaodecuocifangmian,边bianjishoujinyituyiyueranzhishang。(3)金jinronggaigefangmian,进jinyibuqiangdiaoshuangxiangkaifanghefuwushiti

yijiduhuobizhengcelihuichuandachuliaoduijingjiquyuleguan,货huobizhengcequyushoujindezhengceyitu,与yuciqianshichangyizhiyuqidehuobizhengceyanxukuansongxiangbi,政zhengcejidiaomingxianzhuanbian,出chuxianliaoxianzhudeyuqicha。在zaipianjindehuobizhengcejidiaozhiyinxia,央yangxingduanqineijiangzhundekenengxingyijingxianzhujiangdi,短duanqijichuhuobiquekoujiangdagailvcaiyongOMO+MLF(TMLF)的defangshijinxingduichong,基jichuhuobichengbenmingxiantaisheng,7天tianzijinlilvchixudiyugongkaishichanglilvdeguodukuansongzhuangtaiduanqineijiangnanyizaixian

er、信xinyongshichangzhanwang:期qixianlichahuoxiaxing,但danbuyidafulachangjiuqi

xinyongzhaitouzicelue:受shouqujindezijinhegaokaidegushiyingxiang,周zhouyixinyongzhaijiaotouqingdan,各gedengjizhaiquanyouqishigaodengjizhaidechengjiaoliangjunchuxianmingxianxiahua。成chengjiaojiagefangmian,产chanyezhaibiaoxianyouyuchengtou,1年nianqiqiyezhaishouyilvxiaxing1bp左zuoyou,而erqitaqixianqiyezhaijisuoyouqixiandechengtoushouyilvpubianshangxing3-6bp。对duiyuhouqi,我womenrenweixuyaoguanzhu:期qixianlichahuoxiaxing,但dankaolvdaolilvfengxian,不buyidafulachangjiuqi

conglishishujukan,高gaopingjixinyongzhaideqixianyijiayulilvzhaijibenyizhi,低dipingjiqixianlichazhengtigaoyulilvzhai,期qixianyuechang,差chajuyueda,但danzoushirengbijiaoxiangsi。以yi3年nianqihe5年nianqiweidaibiao,尤youqishi2015年nianyilai,3年nianqiAAA级jixinyongzhaideqixianlichayuguozhaiqixianlichazoushigaoduyizhi,3年nianqiAA级jiji5年nianqiAAA级jixinyongzhaideqixianlichaluegaoyuguozhaideqixianlichadanchajubuda,5年nianqiAA级jixinyongzhaiqixianlichazhengtishuipinghebodongfudujundayuguozhaiqixianlicha

shouxian,利lilvzhaideqixianlichaqujueyujuedingduanqililvdehuobizhengcehejuedingchangqililvdeshichangyuqi。从congshijianlaikan,相xiangbishichangyuqi,短duanqililvduiqixianlichadeyingxianggengqiang,两liangzhechengxianchuxianzhudefuxiangguanxing。也yejiushishuo,利lilvzhaideqixianlichazhuyaoqujueyuduanqililvdezoushi。其qici,信xinyongzhaiqixianlichayulilvzhaidequbiehuoxuyuliudongxinghefengxianchayiyouguan,期qixianyueduandezhaiquanliudongxingyueqiang、风fengxianyuedi,因yincixiangbi5年nianqizhaiquan,市shichangdui3年nianqixinyongzhaidepianhaojiaoqiang,其qiqixianlichayulilvzhaidechajuyejiaoxiao。在zaizheliangzhezhong,风fengxianchayimingxianqidaoliaogengweizhongyaodezuoyong。最zuihou,从congmuqianlaikan,年nianchuyilaisuizhuosherongdezhubugaishan、地difangzhengfuzhaijiasufaxing、减jianshuijiangfeidengzhengcebuduanchutaihezhongmeimaoyitanpanbuduanchuanchuleguanxinhao,3月yuePMI、净jingchukou、社sherongjunchaoyuqifandan,虽suiranzaizheqizhongyouchunjieyinsuderaodong,但danzongtilaishuojingjiqiwendeyuqizaibuduanqianghua,货huobizhengcejinyibufangsongdekenengxingjiaoxiao,短duanqililvyishangnanxia,信xinyongzhaiqixianlichadagailvxiaxing。在zaicijichushang,低dipingji、长changjiuqixinyongzhaideqixianlichaxiaxingfudukenenggengda。虽suiranruci,投touzizherengxujingtililvshangxingzhouqilachangjiuqidailaidelilvfengxian

yixiaweiquanwen

yi、利lilvshichangzhanwang:当dangyangxingzhongtifangfengxian,货huobizhengcedekuansongzhouqikenengyijingjieshu

zhouyizaopanshoushangzhouwuwaimaohejinrongshujudafuchaoyuqiyingxiang,利lilvjixudafuchonggao,10年nianguokaihuoyuequanyidujiaoshangzhouwushoupanshangxing4.5bp。午wuhoushougushichonggaohuiluozhuandieyingxiang,利lilvyousuoxiaxing。全quantianlaikan,长changduanhuoyuequanpubianshangxing2-3bp,非feiguokai3-5年nianbufenpinzhongshangxingfudushenzhichaoguo10bp。国债期货dafudikaihoudiefuhuanmanshouzhai,全quantianyirandafushoudie。后houqiwomenguanzhu

diyi,当dangyangxingzhongtifangfengxian,货huobizhengcedekuansongzhouqikenengyijingjieshu。周zhouyiwanjian,央yangxingwangzhanfabuliaoshangzhouwuzhaokaideyijiduhuobizhengcelihuixinwen稿gao。从congzhecishanshanlaichideyijidulihuizhong,我womensihuxiudaoliaoyixiebutongxunchangdehuobizhengcefengxiangbianhua

shouxian,对duijingjidekanfakaishizhuanxiangjiji。与yuquniansijidulihuixinwen稿gaodecuocixiangbi,一yijidulihuiduidangqianjingjidekanfacong“我woguojingjibaochipingwenfazhan”改gaiwei“我woguojingjichengxianjiankangfazhan”,看kanfamingxianquyuleguan。对duidangqianhuobizhengcedekanfayou“稳wenjianzhongxingdehuobizhengcequdeliaojiaohaochengxiao”改gaiwei“稳wenjiandehuobizhengcetixianliaonizhouqidiaojiedeyaoqiu”,体tixianchuyangxingrenweimuqianpiansongdehuobizhengceshinizhouqidiaojiedexuyao,而erfeiyangxingyouyifangshui。对duiwaibuhuanjingdebiaoshuyou“国guojijingjijinrongxingshigengjiacuozongfuza,面mianlingengjiayanjundetiaozhan”改gaiwei“国guojijingjijinrongxingshicuozongfuza,不buquedingxingrengranjiaoduo”,措cuocimingxianquyuhuanhe,反fanyingchusuizhuozhongmeimaoyitanpanbuduanhuodejijijinzhan,外waibufengxianyousuojianqing

qici,未weilaihuobizhengcejidiaochuxianbianjishoujinjixiang。在zaizhanwangweilaiyiduanshijianhuobizhengcefangxiangshi,一yijidulihuidecuociyuquniansijiduxiangbichuxianliaobushaoweimiaobianhua

(1)对duinizhouqidiaojiedecuocifangmian,逆nizhouqidiaojiezhongyaoxingyousuojiangdi。“加jiadanizhouqidiaojiedelidu,提tigaohuobizhengceqianzhanxing、灵linghuoxinghezhenduixing”改gaiwei“保baochizhanluedingli,坚jianchinizhouqidiaojie,进jinyibujiaqianghuobi、财caizhengyuqitazhengcezhijiandexiediao,适shishiyudiaoweidiao,注zhuzhongzaiwenzengchangdejichushangfangfengxian”。逆nizhouqidiaojieliduyou“加jiada”变bianwei“坚jianchi”,删shanchu“提tigaohuobizhengceqianzhanxing、灵linghuoxinghezhenduixing”的debiaoshu,预yushizhuoweilaiyiduanshijiannizhouqidiaojielidujiangyousuojianqing,货huobizhengcewenzengchangzhongyaoxingjianruo;新xinzeng“加jiaqianghuobi、财caizhengyuqitazhengcezhijiandexiediao”的debiaoshu,预yushizhuozhengcefangsongsuqiujianruo,政zhengcexiediaoshiweilaiyiduanshijianzhengcezhujidiao,财caizheng、货huobizhengceduanshijianneijinyibufangsongdekenengxingduyousuojianruo;新xinzeng“保baochizhanluedingli”和he“注zhuzhongzaiwenzengchangdejichushangfangfengxian”,或huoxuyiweizhuowenzengchangdebiyaoxingbianjishangjiangyousuoxiajiang,保baochidinglifangfengxiandezhongyaoxingbianjishangyousuoshangsheng

(2)对duihuobizhengcejidiaodecuocifangmian,边bianjishoujinyituyiyueranzhishang。由you“稳wenjiandehuobizhengceyaogengjiazhuzhongsongjinshidu,保baochiliudongxinghelichongyu,保baochihuobixindaijishehuirongziguimohelizengchang”改gaiwei“稳wenjiandehuobizhengceyaosongjinshidu,把bahaohuobigonggeizongzhamen,不bugao‘大dashuimanguan’,同tongshibaochiliudongxinghelichongyu,广guangyihuobiM2和heshehuirongziguimozengsuyaoyuguoneishengchanzongzhimingyizengsuxiangpipei”。一yifangmian,货huobizhengcesongjinshidudezhongyaoxingxiajiang,言yanxiazhiyiziranshihuobizhengcededanxingkeyishidangjiada,目muqianpiansongdehuobizhengcecunzaishidushoujindekongjian;另lingyifangmian,重zhongti“把bahaohuobigonggeizongzhamen,不bugao‘大dashuimanguan’”,显xianranyezhixiangliaomuqiandehuobizhengcepiansong,未weilaijiangshidushoujin。更gengzhideguanzhudeshixinzengliao“广guangyihuobiM2和heshehuirongziguimozengsuyaoyuguoneishengchanzongzhimingyizengsuxiangpipei”的debiaotai,众zhongsuozhouzhimuqiansherongzengsuyidafuhuishengzhi10.7%,如ruguosherongzengsuyaoyumingyiGDP增zengsupipei,要yaomeyiweizhuoyangxingyuqishijiGDP增zengsuhetongzhangjiangdafushangxing,要yaomeyiweizhuoyangxingrenweimuqiansherongzengsupiangao,未weilaixuyaoshidushoujinyingen。无wuluncongnagejiaodulailijie,对duizhaishisihudubutaiyouli

(3)金jinronggaigefangmian,进jinyibuqiangdiaoshuangxiangkaifanghefuwushiti。一yijiduxinzeng“按anzhaoshenhuajinronggonggeicejiegouxinggaigedeyaoqiu,以yijinrongtixijiegoudiaozhengyouhuaweizhongdian”、“改gaijinxiaoweiqiyehe‘三sannong’金jinrongfuwu”、“进jinyibukuodajinronggaoshuipingshuangxiangkaifang,提tigaokaifangtiaojianxiajingjijinrongguanlinenglihefangkongfengxiannengli,提tigaocanyuguojijinrongzhilinengli”、“着zhuolijifaweiguanzhutihuoli”等dengcuoci,一yifangmianjinyibuqianghuajinrongtixijiegoudiaozheng,增zengqiangfuwu“三sannong”小xiaoweidengshitijingjinengli,另lingyifangmianyouqiangdiaojinrongduiwaikaifangzhuanxiangqiangdiaoshuangxiangkaifang,对duijinrongzouchuqudesuqiujinyibuzengqiang

zongshangsuoshu,一yijiduhuobizhengcelihuichuandachuliaoduijingjiquyuleguan,货huobizhengcequyushoujindezhengceyitu,与yuciqianshichangyizhiyuqidehuobizhengceyanxukuansongxiangbi,政zhengcejidiaomingxianzhuanbian,出chuxianliaoxianzhudeyuqicha。在zaipianjindehuobizhengcejidiaozhiyinxia,央yangxingduanqineijiangzhundekenengxingyijingxianzhujiangdi,短duanqijichuhuobiquekoujiangdagailvcaiyongOMO+MLF(TMLF)的defangshijinxingduichong,基jichuhuobichengbenmingxiantaisheng,7天tianzijinlilvchixudiyugongkaishichanglilvdeguodukuansongzhuangtaiduanqineijiangnanyizaixian

er、信xinyongshichangzhanwang:期qixianlichahuoxiaxing,但danbuyidafulachangjiuqi

shouqujindezijinhegaokaidegushiyingxiang,周zhouyixinyongzhaijiaotouqingdan,各gedengjizhaiquanyouqishigaodengjizhaidechengjiaoliangjunmingxianxiahua。成chengjiaojiagefangmian,产chanyezhaibiaoxianyouyuchengtou,1年nianqiqiyezhaishouyilvxiaxing1bp左zuoyou,而erqitaqixianqiyezhaijisuoyouqixiandechengtoushouyilvpubianshangxing3-6bp。信xinyonglichafangmian,产chanyezhaixinyonglichaxiaxing1-2bp;除chu7年nianqiluexiaxingwai,城chengtoulichashangxing1-5BP不budeng。对duiyuhouqi,我womenrenweixuyaoguanzhu:期qixianlichahuoxiaxing,但dankaolvdaolilvfengxian,不buyidafulachangjiuqi

gaopingjixinyongzhaideqixianyijiayulilvzhaijibenyizhi,低dipingjiqixianlichazhengtigaoyulilvzhai,期qixianyuechang,差chajuyueda,但danzoushirengbijiaoxiangsi。以yi3年nianqihe5年nianqiweidaibiao,尤youqishi2015年nianyilai,3年nianqiAAA级jixinyongzhaideqixianlichayuguozhaiqixianlichazoushigaoduyizhi,3年nianqiAA级jiji5年nianqiAAA级jixinyongzhaideqixianlichaluegaoyuguozhaideqixianlichadanchajubuda,5年nianqiAA级jixinyongzhaiqixianlichazhengtishuipinghebodongfudujundayuguozhaiqixianlicha

shouxian,如ruhelijielilvzhaideqixianlicha,即jiduanqiwufengxianlilvyuchangqiwufengxianlilvzhijiandeguanxishishime?分fenbielaikanliangzhedeyingxiangyinsu,短duanqililvjibenyouhuobizhengcejueding,一yigejiandandelizhengshi7天tiantongyechaijielilv(可keshiweihuobishichangshouyilv)与yu1年nianqiguozhaishouyilvzoushigaoduyizhi;而erchangqililvzeshizaixianyouduanqililvdejichushangdiejiashichangduiweilaiduanqililvdeyuqi(预yuqililun)。因yinci,在zaijingjihehuobizhengcezhouqidebutongjieduan,会huixingchengniuping、牛niudou、熊xiongping、熊xiongdoudengbutongdelilvqu线xianbianhua。比biruhuobizhengcebaochizhongxingdeshiqi,如ruguojingjiyuqigaishan,那namechangqililvjianghuishangxing,导daozhiqixianlichazoukuo。从congshijianlaikan,相xiangbishichangyuqi,短duanqililvduiqixianlichadeyingxianggengqiang,两liangzhechengxianchuxianzhudefuxiangguanxing。也yejiushishuo,利lilvzhaideqixianlichazhuyaoqujueyuduanqililvdezoushi

qici,如ruhelijiexinyongzhaiqixianlichayulilvzhaiqixianlichadechayi,即jiruhejieshibutongqixian、风fengxianchayiduiqixianlichadeyingxiang?这zhehuoxuyuliudongxinghefengxianchayiyouguan(类leisiliudongxingpianhaolilun),期qixianyueduandezhaiquanliudongxingyueqiang、风fengxianyuedi,因yincixiangbi5年nianqizhaiquan,市shichangdui3年nianqixinyongzhaidepianhaojiaoqiang,其qiqixianlichayulilvzhaidechajuyejiaoxiao。在zaizheliangzhezhong,风fengxianchayimingxianqidaoliaogengweizhongyaodezuoyong,3年nianqihe5年nianqiAA级jixinyongzhaideqixianlichadumingxiangaoyulilvzhai,而erAAA级jixinyongzhaiqixianlichayulilvzhaimeiyoumingxiandechayi

zuihou,未weilaixinyongzhaiqixianlichadezoushiruhe?信xinyongzhaiqixianlichadejichushililvzhaideqixianlicha,而erlilvzhaiqixianlichayouqujueyuhuobizhengcedezoushi。从congmuqianlaikan,年nianchuyilaisuizhuosherongdezhubugaishan、地difangzhengfuzhaijiasufaxing、减jianshuijiangfeidengzhengcebuduanchutaihezhongmeimaoyitanpanbuduanchuanchuleguanxinhao,3月yuePMI、净jingchukou、社sherongjunchaoyuqifandan,虽suiranzaizheqizhongyouchunjieyinsuderaodong,但danzongtilaishuojingjiqiwendeyuqizaibuduanqianghua,货huobizhengcejinyibufangsongdekenengxingjiaoxiao,短duanqililvyishangnanxia,即jixinyongzhaideqixianlichadagailvxiaxing。在zaicijichushang,低dipingji、长changjiuqixinyongzhaideqixianlichaxiaxingfudukenenggengda。虽suiranruci,投touzizherengxujingtililvshangxingzhouqilachangjiuqidailaidelilvfengxian。(编bianji:刘liurui)

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