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国金证券:特别的新东方在线(01797),焦虑的在线教育

2019-04-16     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自“国金证券”,作者为吴劲草、郑慧琳,本文观点不代表智通财经观点。摘要2019年3月38日,新东方在线(01797)上市,成为港股在线教育第一股,本篇报告探讨了四个问题:(1)新东方在线与其他在线教育公司不一样的地方在哪里?(2)未来新东方在线的增长点在….

benwenlaizi“国guojinzhengquan”,作zuozheweiwujincao、郑zhenghuilin,本benwenguandianbudaibiaozhitongcaijingguandian

zhaiyao

2019年nian3月yue38日ri,新xindongfangzai线xian(01797)上shangshi,成chengwei港股zai线xianjiaoyudiyigu,本benpianbaogaotantaoliaosigewenti:(1)新xindongfangzai线xianyuqitazai线xianjiaoyugongsibuyiyangdedifangzainali?(2)未weilaixindongfangzai线xiandezengchangdianzainali?(3)未weilaixindongfangzai线xiandeyinglinenglihuishoudaonaxieyinsudeyingxiang?(4)未weilaixuyaoguanzhuxindongfangzai线xiannaxieguanjianzhibiao?

xindongfangzai线xianzhuyaoyewuweizhibo&录lubodengfangshidezai线xianjiaoyu,涵hangaiquannianlingduanduofangmianjiaoyuneirong。新xindongfangzai线xianqixiapingtaibaokuoxindongfangzai线xian(2005)、多duona(2012)、酷kuxueyingyu(2014)、东dongfangyoubo(2017)等dengpingtai,提tigongdaxuejiaoyu(大daxuekaoshi,海haiwaikaoshi,英yingyuxuexideng)、K12教jiaoyu、学xueqianjiaoyudengduofangmianyewu

yuqitazai线xianjiaoyugongsiyouhebutong? 新xindongfangzai线xianbeikaoxindongfang(54.7%)&腾tengxun(9.9%)两liangzuodashan,股gudongchanyezibenweizhu,而erfeicaiwuziben。我womenduibiliaoxindongfangzai线xianheqitawujiazai线xianjiaoyugongsidecaiwujijingyingshuju,发faxianqicaiwushujutezhenghedianxingdehulianwangjiaoyuqiyechajujiaoda,相xiangsiduzuigaodeshizhengbaoyuancheng。新xindongfangzai线xian:①收shourutiliangchuyuzhongdeng,增zengsuxiangduiwending,量liangweizhuyaotuidongli,客kedanjiadi;②边bianjichengbendi,规guimoxiaoyingqiang,毛maolilvchuyuzhongjianshuiping,盈yinglinenglichutiao;③销xiaoshoufeiyonglvyuandiyuxingyepingjunshuiping,营yingxiaofanganxiangduiwenhe;④现xianjinliuzhuangkuanglianghaoqiewending

fufeirenci/营yingshou/净jingli/ FY16-18 CAGR72%/40%/23%,FY18达da194万wan/6.5亿yi/0.8亿yi。受shoudaoyewukuozhanghezai线xianjiaoyujingzhengchixujiliedeyingxiang,FY18和heFY19H1师shizichengbenhehuokechengbenyousuozengjia。FY18公gongsishouruduan71%来laiziyudaxuejiaoyu,14%来laiziK12教jiaoyu,其qiyewujiegouyuzaoqidexindongfangxiangsi,品pinpaibeishu,具juyoutianranyewutuozhanyoushi。FY16-18大daxue/K12/学xueqianjiaoyubaomingliushuiCAGR分fenbiewei43%/86%/512%,K12及jixueqianjiaoyuyouwangchengweiweilaishouruzengchangdeqiangjindonglilaiyuan

touzijianyijiguzhi:我womenrenweixindongfangzai线xianyongyouzhuojiaoqiangdepinpaiyoushijiyunyingnengli,看kanhaoqichuantongyewudaxuejiaoyudewenjianzengchang,以yijichengchangyewuyouqishiK12教jiaoyudekuaisufazhan,但danshikaolvdaojingzhengjiajuhezhengcejianguanquyanliangfangmiandeyingxiang,我womenrenweiduanqineilirunduandezengchangkenenghuiyousuochengya。以yiFY17和heFY18来laikan,大dabufenzai线xianjiaoyuqiyebingweiyingli,而erxindongfangzai线xiannenggoushixianyingli,体tixianliaoqipinpaixiaoyingxia,极jijuyoushideyingxiaofeiyonglvshuiping,可kegeiyushidangyijia。虽suirandanyiPE来laikan,目muqianxindongfangzai线xianyue70x-100x的dePE并bingbu便bianyi,但danshiqiPS估guzhihejutouxiangbirengzaiheliqujian。我womenyucegongsiFY2019-2021营yingyeshourufenbiewei9.0/12.6/17.5亿yiyuan,归guimujinglirunfenbiewei0.8/1.0/1.3亿yiyuan,首shoucifugai,给geiyuzengchipingji,目mubiaojia11.9港gangyuan

fengxiantishi:行xingyejingzhengjiaju,监jianguanquyan,人rencaiduanquedengfengxian

zhengwen

 前qianyan

2019年nian3月yue28日ri,新xindongfangzai线xianzaigangshangshi,成chengweigangguzai线xianjiaoyudiyigu,本benpianbaogaojiangtantaosigewenti

(1)新xindongfangzai线xianyuqitazai线xianjiaoyugongsibuyiyangdedifangzainali?

(2)未weilaixindongfangzai线xiandezengchangdianzainali?

(3)未weilaixindongfangzai线xiandeyinglinenglihuishoudaonaxieyinsudeyingxiang?

(4)未weilaixuyaoguanzhuxindongfangzai线xiannaxieguanjianzhibiao?

1.新xindongfangzai线xian:港gangguzai线xianjiaoyudiyigu,成chengrenjiaoyuweiqiyewuzhugan,少shaoerjiaoyuchuxunsufazhanjieduan

xindongfangzai线xianzhuyaoyewuweizhibo&录lubodengfangshidezai线xianjiaoyu,涵hangaiquannianlingduanduofangmianjiaoyuneirong。新xindongfangzai线xianshixindongfangjiaoyukejijituan(NYSE:EDU)旗qixiazhuanyedezai线xianjiaoyupingtai,成chengliyu2005年nian,迄qijin14年nianlishi。2014年nian,新xindongfangjiangzai线xianyewudulifenchaifazhan,2019年nian3月yue28日ri,新xindongfangzai线xianyugangjiaosuoshangshi,成chengweigangguzai线xianjiaoyudiyigu。新xindongfangzai线xianqixiapingtaibaokuoxindongfangzai线xian(2005),多duona(2012),酷kuxueyingyu(2014)和hedongfangyoubo(2017),覆fugaidaxuekaoshi(考kaoyan、四siliujideng),海haiwaikaoshi(托tuofu&SAT等deng),英yingyuxuexi,K12学xuekepeixun,学xueqianjiaoyudengduofangmianneirong

xindongfangzai线xianyewukeyifenbie2C和he2B两liangdalei。新xindongfangzai线xiande2C业yewuxiangbutongnianlingduanxueyuantigongsangebutonghexinyewuleibiedezai线xianjiaoyukecheng。分fenbiewei:大daxuejiaoyu,K12教jiaoyuyijixueqianjiaoyukecheng。FY2018,付fufeizongrenshu194万wan,其qizhong154.3万wanruduzhengshikecheng,39.7万wanrudurumenkecheng。2C课kechengFY2018收shouruwei5.6亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru86%,同tongbizengchang47%,FY2019H1收shouruwei4.3亿yi,占zhanzongshouru90%,同tongbizengchang51%。根genjudaxueheK-12教jiaoyukechengdeneirongmozu,新xindongfangzai线xianweiB2B机jigouyonghutigongjiaoyuneirongtaocan,机jigouyonghubaokuodaxue、公gonggongtushuguan、公gongyingjigouyijidianxunyingyunshangjizai线xianshipinchuanliufuwugongyingshang

FY2017,FY2018,FY2019H1的dejigouyonghuzongshufenbiewei708,735和he851。第disanfangshouquanduonapinpaijichanpin,包baokuochubanshang、玩wanjuzhizaoshang、办bangongshijijiatingyongpinzhizaoshangyijixueqianjiaoyufuwugongyingshang。截jiezhi2018年nian11月yue30日ri,合hezuochubande16个gexiliededuonatushu,总zongfaxingliangjinyibaiwance。机jigoukehuFY2018收shouruwei0.9亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru14%,同tongbizengchang38%。FY2019H1机jigoukehushouruwei0.5亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru10%,同tongbizengchang10%。

1.1大daxuejiaoyu:大daxuebeikao+海haiwaibeikao+语yuyanxuexi+资zigekaoshi

gongsitongguoxindongfangzai线xianjikuxueyingyu,职zhishangpingtai,为weidaxuejiaoyuyewutigongzai线xianfuwu。 FY2018大daxuejiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei116万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu60%,同tongbizengchang40%,收shouruwei4.6亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru71%,同tongbizengchang38%,客kedanjiawei505元yuan/人renci。FY2019H1大daxuejiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei62万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu56%,同tongbizengchang35%,收shouruwei3.4亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru72%,同tongbizengchang42%,客kedanjiawei550元yuan/人renci

①大daxuekaoshibeikao:主zhuyaotongguozhiboheluboxiangjiehedefangshi,为weixueshengzhidingsirenxuexifangan。帮bangzhuxueshengkefuzishenlieshi,全quanmiantigaochengji。研yanjiushengkaoshitigongquanguotongkaodegonggongke,专zhuanyekeyijiqitaliankaokemu。英yingyukaoshifenweidaxueyingyusiji,六liujiyijizhuansi,专zhuanbadekecheng。学xueyuanketongguoshoujiruanjian,在zai线xianyulaoshijiaoliu,实shixianliulanjiangyi,作zuoyepigaihe仿fangzhenlianxi。同tongshi,新xindongfangzai线xianhuansheyoufufeidezengzhifuwu,如ruruogoumai,则zekeyixiangshoudaoyiduiyiVIP辅fudao,私sirenxuexijihuadingzhidengfuwu。FY2018大daxuekaoshibeikaofufeixueshengrenciwei86万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu44%,同tongbizengchang49%,收shouruwei2.6亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru39%,同tongbizengchang42%,客kedanjiawei392元yuan/人renci。FY2019H1大daxuekaoshibeikaofufeixueshengrenciwei38万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu34%,同tongbizengchang24%,收shouruwei2.0亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru41%,同tongbizengchang39%,客kedanjiawei467元yuan/人ren

②海haiwaibeikao:主zhuyaofenweichuantongdeyasi、托tuofudengyuyanleikaoshiyijiGMAT、 A-Level等dengnenglikaoshi,通tongguozai线xianzhiboheluboxiangjiehedefangshijinxing。新xindongfangjituanzuoweiyijiayiyingyupeixunqijiadejiaoyujigou,为weixindongfangzai线xianhaiwaibeikaojinxingliaolianghaodepinpaibeishu。FY2018海haiwaibeikaofufeixueshengrenciwei18万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu9%,同tongbizengchang34%,收shouruwei1.5亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru24%,同tongbizengchang33%,客kedanjiawei1029元yuan/人renci。FY2019H1海haiwaibeikaofufeixueshengrenciwei12万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu11%,同tongbizengchang33%,收shouruwei1.0亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru21%,同tongbizengchang32%,客kedanjiawei939元yuan/人renci

ruxuepingding+目mubiaodingzhi+内neirongpipei,语yuyanleikaoshidazaizhixinxuexixitong,不buduantishengyonghutiyan。通tongguoliyongzai线xianjiaoyuzhonghuodededaliangyonghushuju,新xindongfangzai线xianduliyanfakaifachuliaozhinenggexinghuaxuexipingtai——知zhixin(2014年niantuichu)。知zhixintongguoyunyongyuyiwangluo、数shujuwajuejirenjihudongzaineidedaliangjishu,能nenggoupingjiemeimingxueshengdeketangbiaoxianlaifenxixueshengdexuexijindu,自zidongdiaozhengbutongxueshengdekechengcailiao、练lianxitijixuexijihua,帮bangzhuxueshengtigaokaoshichengji。例liruzhixintuofuxuexixitong,可kejingzhunbawoETS官guanfangtuofukaoshiqushi,不buguolianxibutongnanduzhishidian,逐zhubutishengkaoshichengji。③语yuyanxuexi:主zhuyaofenweiyingyuxuexijixiaoyuzhongriyu,韩hanyu,德deyu,法fayu,西xiyudexuexi。在zaiyingyuxuexifangmian,通tongguoxiangxueyuantigongyingyunenglikecheng,口kouyiheshangwuyingyukecheng,可kebangzhuxueyuanconglingjichukaishi,直zhidagaojieyingyushuiping。在zaixiaoyuzhongkechengfangmian,可kebangzhuxueyuanjifayuyanxingqu,通tongguoyulexingdequweikecheng,结jiehedangdiwenhua,学xuexishiyonghezhuanyekaoshileiyuyanxuexi。除chuliaoxindongfangzai线xianzhiwai,还huanyoukuxueyingyupingtaitigongyingyupeixun

kuxueyingyupingtai:前qianshenkuxuewang,成chengliyu2014年nian,是shixindongfangzai线xianqixiadezai线xianjiaoyuzhibopingtai。可keweibutongchengduxueyuantigongfengfuderenwentongshi,原yuanzhuyuedu,语yufayijikouyinxunliandekecheng。同tongshiketongguoduoqudao访fangwen,包baokuokuxueyingyuguanwang,手shoujiAPP,微weixin,QQ,微weibodeng。酷kuxueyingyupingtaihuan退tuichuliaokuxueyuanzhujihua:通tongguomingshijiangjieyingyujingdianmingzhu,例lirulizhileixiaoshuo《追zhuifengzhengderen》,悬xuanyileixiaoshuo《哈halibotexilie》,通tongguoshengdongdegushiqingjiehelianghaodeshequnzhujiaodayi,帮bangzhuxueyuanzai60内neishixian5000+高gaopincihuideyunyong,实shixiyuyannenglidetigao

④资zigekaoshi:主zhuyaotongguotuichu“职zhishang”APP为weixueyuantigongzhuanyezizhileikaoshifuwu。职zhishangwangshiyouxindongfangjituanheATA集jituanlianhechuziyunying,依yituoyuATA领lingxiandekaoshicepingjishujizaizhiyekaoshilingyushenrudeyanjiu,在zaijijin,会huijidengcongyekaoshifangmiankeyiwei广guangdazhongguozhiyekaoshirenquntigongzuigaoxiaodezai线xianxuexifuwu( ATA是shiyijiayikaoshiyucepingfuwuweizhuyingyewudenasidakeshangshigongsi,为weizhongguozhengfujigou、教jiaoyujigou、企qishiyeweitigongshuqianzhongkaoshidejishuheyunyingfuwu)。

FY2018英yingyuxuexijiqita(包baohanxiaoyuzhongjizigekaoshi)付fufeixueshengrenciwei12万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu6%,同tongbizengchang3%,收shouruwei0.5亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru8%,同tongbizengchang32%,客kedanjiawei536元yuan/人renci。FY2019H1英yingyuxuexijiqitafufeixueshengrenciwei13万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu12%,同tongbizengchang90%,收shouruwei0.5亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru9%,同tongbizengchang84%,客kedanjiawei437元yuan/人renci

1.2 K12教jiaoyu:17年nianchenglidongfangyoubo,开kaishizhongdianfali

K-12教jiaoyudekechengjibenshangfugaizhongguoK-12学xueshengxiududedabufenkemu,主zhuyaobaokuoxindongfangzai线xiandeK-12课kecheng(双shuangshimoshi),东dongfangyoubokechengyijisibokekecheng。新xindongfangzai线xiandeK-12课kecheng(双shuangshimoshi),东dongfangyoubokechengtongguozai线xianzhibodefangshijinxingshouke,以yilubodexingshigongxueshenggongguxuexi。FY2018的de K-12教jiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei19万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu10%,同tongbizengchang147%,收shouruwei0.9亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru14%,同tongbizengchang105%,客kedanjiawei572元yuan/人renci,FY2019H1的deK-12教jiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei29万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu26%,同tongbizengchang214%,收shouruwei0.8亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru16%,同tongbizengchang91%,客kedanjiawei356元yuan/人renci

①新xindongfangzai线xiandeK-12课kecheng(双shuangshimoshi):针zhenduizhongxiaoxueshengtigonghangaiyuwen、数shuxue、英yingyu、物wuli、化huaxuedengquanbuzhuyaokemu,并bingqiexiangzhongxueshengtigongweigaodengxuexiaozhaoshengquanguotongyikaoshiershezhidexuexiyufuxikecheng。绝juedabufendeK-12教jiaoyukechengcaiyongshuangshimoshi,由youjiaoshizai线xianzhiboshouke,由youzhuanmendexueguanshizaiketangshangyijikehoujiedatongxuedeyiwenbingqieyuxueshengjinxingkeqiangoutong、负fuzefenfajiaocaiyijizuoyepingfen。课kechengguimoyibanzhaoshou20-30名mingxuesheng。该gaimoshiyouzhuyuhuoyueketangqifen,提tigaoxuexixiaolv,加jiaqiangshishengzhijiandehudong

②东dongfangyoubo:东dongfangyoubodiquxingzhibohudongxiaowaifudaokechengyu2017年nian3月yuetuichu。目muqian,我woguojiaoyuziyuanyanzhongbupingheng,而erdongfangyoubodehexinjingzhengdianjiuzaiyubabeijing,中zhongguoyouzhijiaoyudeshizitongguohulianwangdexingshixiangqianfadadiqushuchu。通tongguohexindezai线xianzhibolebokechengyuyiduiyizai线xianfudaokecheng,依yikaoxindongfangzichuangdeqibujiaoxuefa,在zaiquanguoshixianjiaoyuziyuangongxiang。课ketangguimoshang,每meibanzuiduozhaoshou25名minglaizitongyidiqudexuesheng

jingzhengdian:①课kechengtiehedifangjiaoyudagang,名mingshishejibutongdiqukecheng。东dongfangyoubohuigenjudingdanxinxizidongbaxiangtongdiqudexueyuanjinxingbanjifenlei,每meiban8-10人ren,实shixianxiaobanhuajiaoxue。教jiaoshitongguoyanjiudifangdejiaoxueneirong,设shejishoukeneironghelianxiti,不budingqihui访fang,充chongfenbangzhuxueyuantigaozishenchengji。②设sheli线xianxiatiyandian,目muqianyifugaiquanguo68个gechengshi。新xindongfangguanfangzhiyingdiankeyiwei广guangdaxueyuanhejiachangtigongquanfangweidekechengzhanshi,可keyi使shixueyuanyishijianliaojiexingshi、实shijingtiyankecheng

③私siboke:于yu2017年nian1月yuetuichusibokekecheng,该gaikechengyiluboxingshizhuanmenweixiubixindongfang线xianxiakechenghouxiwangjixu线xianshangxuexidexueshengtigongfuzhuxuexiziyuan。新xindongfangzai线xianweituoxindongfangdejiaoshishejiyijiluzhisibokekecheng,并bingtigongjishuheyunyingzhichi。该gaikechenghangaiqinianjizhishiernianjidesuoyoukemu,单dangekechengshipinshijianwei20-30分fenzhong

1.3学xueqianjiaoyu:12年niantuichuzizhupinpaiduona,提tigongxuexiruanjian+直zhibokecheng

tongguoduonashoujiyingyuxuexiruanjianyijizhibokechengrangxuelingqianertongzai线xianxuexiyingyu。新xindongfangzai线xianyu2012年nianshoucituichuxueqianjiaoyupinpaiduona,致zhiliyusanzhishisuideertongtigongqifaxinzhidehudongyingyuxuexitiyan。多duonashiziwangdekatongxingxiangshejilingganyuanziyuhaizimenzuixihuandetianshi ,由youxindongfangjituanyuanchuangsheji,拥yongyoubanquanbaohu。多duonaqixiadechanpinzuhezhuyaobaokuoduonayingyongchengxuxiliejiduonawaijiaoxuetang。多duonapinpaibeishouquanyudisanfangjinxingzhoubianchanpinkaifaliru:多duonaertongjiaoyutushuxilie,并bingshouquxukefei。FY2018学xueqianjiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei60万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu31%,同tongbizengchang463%,收shouruwei0.1亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru2%,同tongbizengchang220%,客kedanjiawei43元yuan/人renci。 FY2019H1学xueqianjiaoyufufeixueshengrenciwei19万wanren,占zhanzongrenshu17%,同tongbizengchang-25%,收shouruwei0.1亿yiyuan,占zhanzongshouru3%,同tongbizengchang166%,客kedanjiawei148元yuan/人renci

①多duonayingyongchengxuxilie:专zhuanweisanzhiqisuiertongsheji,包baokuoyiIOS/安anzhuoweijichudeyingyuxuexijiertongjiaoyuyingyongchengxu。该gaichengxushejidejichuyuanyuxinlizhuanjiagenjuertongrenzhiyijixuexitedianshejideneirong。大daduochengxudunenggoumianfeixiazai,程chengxuzhongdeneirongdaduolaizineibukaifa,部bufenertongjiaoyuneironglaiziyujianqiaodaxuekaifajishouquandecailiao。截jiezhi2018年nian11月yue30日rizhiyigeyue,IOS/安anzhuopingtaishangdeduonayingyongchengxuxiliepingrijizhoumopingjunmeirihuoyueyonghuzongshufenbiewei44000名mingji54000名ming

②多duonawaijiaoxuetang:是shiyigezai线xianshaoeryingyupinpai,主zhuyaomianxiang4-12岁suihaizitigongzhuanyedeshaoeryingyukecheng,由youwaijilaoshijinxingxiaobanzhiboyingyujiaoxue,通tongguohaizidebutongnianlingjieduanqufenhaizidexueximubiao。学xuexiaopinqingzhuanyedeoumeiwaijiao、通tongguofengfudedonghuachangjing、以yijianqiaoGuess What教jiaocai、与yuhaizijinxingquweihudong,激jifayingyuxuexidereqing。应yingyongchengxugongbaokuosixianghubuchanpin:直zhibokecheng、一yiduiyiyanlianke、主zhutikejizixuezishiyingyingyongchengxu

zhibokechengweiduonawaijiaoketangdehexinchanpin,每meijieketongchangwei50分fenzhong,美meibanzhaoshousimingxuesheng,有youliyuhuoyueketangqifen。所suoyoujiaoshijunweimuyuwaijirenshi,课kechengneirongyidonghuaweijichu,并bingsheyoujiaosebanyan

yanliankeweiyiduiyizai线xianzhibokecheng,旨zhizaigongguzhishiyaodianyijizuoweizhibokechengdebuchong。主zhutikeshiyixingquweibendezai线xiankecheng,自zishiyingxuexiyingyongchengxuchixujianduxueshengdexuexiqingkuang,并bingweiqitigongxuexiziliao,改gaishanchengxuzhencedaodexueshengbaoruodezhishidian

③向xiangdisanfangshouquanduonapinpaijichanpin:包baokuochubanshang、玩wanjuzhizaoshang、办bangongshijijiatingyongpinzhizuoshangyijixueqianjiaoyufuwugongyingshang。FY16/FY17/FY18/FY19H1,向xiangdisanfangshouquanduonapinpaijichanpinchanshengdexukefeiwei33.8/28.7/110/430万wanyuan。截jiezhiFY19H1,合hezuochubanliao16个gexiliededuonatushu,总zongfaxingliangjin1百baiwance

2.新xindongfangzai线xianyuqitazai线xianjiaoyugongsibuyiyangdedifangzainali?

2.1股guquanjiegou:背beikaoxindongfang&腾tengxunliangzuodashan,产chanyezibenxionghou

xindongfangzai线xian:背beikaoxindongfang&腾tengxunliangzuodashan,股gudongchanyezibenweizhu,而erfeicaiwuziben。新xindongfangzai线xiankonggugudongweixindongfangjituan(EDU),持chigu54.7%,而erqidierdagudongweitengxunxi,占zhanbida9.9%,腾tengxunxishifenzhuzhongjiaoyuxingyedetouzi,除chuxindongfangzai线xianwai,还huantouziliaoVIPKID,猿yuantiku,兰landishaoeryingyu,宝baobaowanyingyudengduojiazai线xianjiaoyuqiye。景jinglinxichiguda5.6%,此ciwai,员yuangong&董dongshi&董dongshichangjiqijiazuchigugong10.4%。若ruojiangtengxunxihuafenweichanyeziben(本benshenjuyouduozhongxietongxiaoying),那namexindongfangzai线xiandewaibucaiwutouzizhegudongjinyoujinglinxihelingyijiachigu1.4%的dejigouChinacity(专zhuanzuojiaoyulingyudetouzi)。我womenrenwei,新xindongfangzai线xiandezhuyaogudongweichanyeziben,而erfeicaiwuziben,而erxianzaishichangshangzai线xianjiaoyuqiye,动dongzherongzizhiC轮lun,D轮lun,新xindongfangzai线xianzaiqizhong,显xiandeyouwei“出chutiao”。新xindongfangzai线xianbeikaoxindongfang&腾tengxunliangzuodashan,得deyiyuxindongfangjituanzaijiaoyulingyuxionghoudeshizililianghefengfudejiaoyujingyan,以yijitengxunzaihulianwangshipinzhongduandeyunyingjishu,未weilaihuochanshenggengduoxietongxiaoying

duibiqitazai线xianjiaoyuqiye:融rongzidachaojiajuliaohulianwangjiaoyujingzhengdejiliechengdu,众zhongduocaiwutouzizhecanyuqizhong。互hulianwangjiaoyuqi广guangkuodeqianjing,引yinfaliaoPE和heVC等dengyijishichangtouzirennonghoudexingqu,而erhulianwangjiaoyuqiyefazhanguochengdangzhong,攻gongchengluedishidiyiyaowu,盈yinglibushikaohezhibiao。近jinnianlai,广guangfandehulianwangjiaoyudetouzi,巨juederongzi,使shidehulianwangjiaoyushichangsishagengweijilie,并bingqiepubianchengxianzhongzengyingshoubuzenglirundeqingkuang。因yinweixingyeguimodadaoyidingdeqiye,不buxichengbendeshaoqiankuozhang。所suoyixianzaihulianwangqiyeduchuyurongzi——扩kuozhang——再zairongzi——再zaikuozhangdelujingdangzhong,因yinweibixubaochikuaisudekuozhang,而ermeibanfakaozishenlirunzaoxue,还huanmeiyouwanchengyigeqiyebenshendebihuan,所suoyihulianwangqiyeduchuyuqiangliedejiaolvganzhizhong,互hulianwangqiyedeyinglixingxianzaihuanmeiyoukandaodamianjiyanzhengdejixiang

2.1财caiwushuju:出chutiaodeyinglinengli,远yuandiyuxingyedexiaoshoufeiyonglvshuiping

weiliaokuaisukuozhang,互hulianwangjiaoyuqiyezaiyingxiaoshangdezhanzhengshifenjilie,巨juedeyingxiaofeiyongshihulianwangjiaoyuqiyebunengshixianyinglidegenyuan。虽suiranhulianwangjiaoyudemaolilvduhengao,但danhenduohulianwangjiaoyuqiyerengranshijinglilvweifu。因yinweizai线xianjiaoyuqiyehuodeliaorongzihou,互hulianwangjiaoyuqiyexinzhongdemaokendingshi——扩kuozhang,扩kuozhang,再zaikuozhang,不buduantishengshizhanlv,而erkuozhangdeguochengzhong,最zuizhongyaodezhichudejiushiyingxiaofeiyong,包baokuozuoshiwai广guanggao,APP投toufang广guanggao(抖douyin,头toutiaodeng),购goumaisousuo(百baidudeng),还huanyoudianxiao&地dituirenyuandegongzideng

meitiandakaishouji,坐zuoshangditie,打dakaisousuodukeyikandaohulianwangjiaoyujigouputiangaidide广guanggao,如ruguozengjingzaiyixiexuexiwangzhanzengjingliuxiaguoshoujihaode,也yehuibeidianxiaodengfangshijingzhunyingxiao,互hulianwangjiaoyuqiyezaiyingxiaoshangdetourubukeweibuda。在zaiguimodaodayidingchengduhou,继jixuhuodexinderongzi,进jinxingxiayilunkuozhang,最zuizhongjisijingzhengduishou,每meigexifenlingyuneicunhuodejigedawanjia,形xingchengguatoulongduan,并bingjiangdiyingxiaofeiyonglv,实shixianyingli。目muqian,还huanweidaohulianwangjiaoyuxingchengguatougejudeshihou,仍rengchuzaiqianyigerongzi-扩kuozhang-融rongzi-扩kuozhangdexunhuanzhong,需xuyaojixusisha

womenduibiliaoxindongfangzai线xianheqitawujiazai线xianjiaoyugongsidecaiwujijingyingshuju,包baokuoyijingzai美股shangshidezhengbaoyuancheng,无wuyouyingyu(51TALK),尚shangdejigouheliulishuo,和hezhengzaidijiaogangguIPO的dehujiangjiaoyu,发faxianxindongfangzai线xianzaicaiwushujudetezhengshanghedianxingdehulianwangjiaoyuqiyechajujiaoda,相xiangsiduzuigaodeshizhengbaoyuancheng

duibi1:收shourutiliangchuyuzhongdeng,增zengsuxiangduiwending,量liangweizhuyaotuidongli,客kedanjiadi

congshouruguimolaikan,尚shangdejigoudeshouruguimozuida,FY2018收shourudadao19.7亿yiyuanyuanyuanchaochuqitajijiadeguimo,除chuliaoqipeixunrenshuchuzaigaosuzengchangjieduandeyinsuyingxiangzhiwai,还huanyuqichengrenzikaoyewujuyougaokedanjiadetedianyouguan。无wuyouyingyuhezhengbaoyuanchengFY2018收shourujundadao11.5亿yiyuan,而erxindongfangzai线xianFY2018收shouruwei6.5亿yiyuan,属shuyuzhongdengshuiping

congshouruzengsulaikan,最zuijinsannianshouruzengchangzuikuaideshiliulishuo,FY16-18CAGR高gaoda629%,和heqitiliangxiao,客kedanjiadi,高gaoyingxiaotourutedianyouguan,沪hujiangjiaoyu、无wuyouyingyuheshangdejigouzeshishuyu60-120%的degaosuzengchangqujian,而erxindongfangzai线xianFY16-18收shouruCAGR为wei40%,增zengsurengranjiaokuai,但danshixiangduiwending,正zhengbaoyuancheng21%的deCAGR则zeshishuyuwendingpianmandefazhansudu

jiehepeixunrenciguimo、增zengsujikedanjialaikan,正zhengbaoyuanchengpeixunrenciguimozuida,FY2018培peixunrencigaoda319万wan,新xindongfangzai线xiande194万wanrencishuyuzhongshangshuiping。培peixunrencidezengsujibenyushourudezengsuxiangwenhe,除chuliaoxindongfangzai线xianzhiwai,其qitawujiajunshishouruzengsugaoyupeixunrencizengsu,其qizhongzhengbaoyuanchengpeixunrencilueyouxiahuadeqingkuangxia,收shoururengranshixianzengchang,增zengchangtuidonglizhongyoukedanjiatishengzaizhicheng。新xindongfangzai线xianxiangduiteshu,新xindongfangpeixunrencidezengchangsuduyaokuaiyuqishourudezengchangsudu,这zheyiweizhuoqimuqianzengchangdezhuyaotuidonglizaiyuliangzeng,我womenrenweizheshiyouyutui广guangzhanbijiaoxiaodeK12培peixunjixueqianjiaoyuyewu,提tigongdedikedanjiaderumenkechengyongyuhuokeyinliudaozhide,当danghuokechengbenxiangduiwendinghou,有youwangyinglailiangjiaqishengdetuidong

zhidezhuyideshi,同tongyangshihulianwangjiaoyu,直zhibohelubodesiluqishishibutongde

①直zhibomoshi,是shi线xianxia“课ketangchangjing”的de线xianshanghua,要yaoqiuhudongganjiaogaodechangjing(少shaoeryingyukouyushizuidianxingdechangjing),发fazhansilubenzhishangshi“培peiyangyonghuxiguan”,烧shaoqianshichangzhanzhenggengweijilie,若ruojuechushengfuhou,垄longduanchengdugenggao,是shicongyonghuxiguan(流liuliang)到daopinpai,到daotuanduiquanfangweidebilei。很henduo1对dui1或huozhexiaobankedushizhibodemoshi,直zhibokebianjichengbenjiaoda,故gudankeshijiagejiaogao,在zai20-100元yuanweizhu

②录lubomoshi,是shi线xianxia“看kanshuxuexi”的de线xianshanghua,对duiduihudongganyaoqiumeiyouzhibozhemegao,本benzhishanghuanshi“优youzhineirongdejileihekuosan”,我womenyuji,录lubokehuigenjubutongneirongxingchengxiangdangchuizhideyixielingyu,最zuizhongxingtaibuhuixiangzhibomoshifenhuazhemeda。录lubokeshijidingneirongdezhongfuchuanbo,边bianjichengbenjiaodi,单dankeshijiagejiaowei便bianyi,在zai5-20元yuanweizhu

xindongfangzai线xian,主zhuyaoshiyiluboweizhude。新xindongfangzai线xiandetixi,实shijishangshiyiluboweizhude,包baokuokaoyanfudao,中zhongxiaoxuefudao,英yingyufudaodengdeng,目muqiandabufenshilubokecheng,辅fuyichongcijieduandedabanzhibodengfangshilaituijinde,而eryiduiyihuozhexiaobandezhibo,这zhezhongketang线xianshanghuademoshi,占zhanbijiaoxiao。新xindongfangzai线xianmuqiandexingtai,其qishibiqiwuyouyingyu,尚shangdejigou,VIPKID等dengmoshi,是shigengjiejinzhengbaoyuanchengde,单dankeshijiagebugao,位weiyu5-20元yuandequjian,故guxindongfangzai线xiandekejundanjiaqishishijiaodide,其qibenzhihexinqishihuanshiyouzhineirongdejileihediedai,而erbushixiguandegaibianhelongduan,同tongshixindongfangzai线xianhuanxiangyoutianrandepinpaiyoushi

xiangbiyukedanjiajiaodideyiluboweizhudexindongfangzai线xian&正zhengbaoyuanchengjiaoyudeng,一yixiezhuliudezhiboweizhudehulianwangjiaoyupingtai,如ruVIPKID等deng,强qiangdiaozhibo,实shishihudongdeng,单dankeshijiagejiaogao,在zai20-100元yuanweizhu。目muqianzuidadezai线xianyingyukouyugongsiVIPKID单dankeshidejiagedayuezai130-160元yuanzhijian

congdingweikanlai,新xindongfangzai线xiancaiqujiaodijiadezhanlue。新xindongfangzai线xianshoufeijiaodi,平pingjunfufeijinwei335元yuan/人renci(以yiyingshoujinxingjisuan,FY2018),和hezhengbaoyuanchengxiangjin,相xiangbieryan,此ciqianyishangshidezai线xianjiaoyugongsi,无wuyouyingyu(在zai线xianshaoeryingyukouyu)平pingjunkedanjiawei4916元yuan/人renci(以yiyingshoujisuan,FY2017),尚shangdejigou(在zai线xianchengrenzikaopeixun&职zhiyepeixun)平pingjunkedanjiawei6140元yuan/人renci(以yixianjinliushuijisuan,FY2017)。从congshoufeicengmianlaishuo,新xindongfangzai线xiancaiqudeshidijiazhanlue,客kedanjiajiaodi

duibi2:边bianjichengbendi,规guimoxiaoyingqiang,毛maolilvchuyuzhongjianshuiping,盈yinglinenglichutiao

zai线xianjiaoyushangshigongsizhong,新xindongfangzai线xianshiyigejuyouyinglinengli,自ziwozaoxuemoxing,营yingxiaofeiyongjiejinzhengchangliansuoqiyedegongsi。新xindongfangzai线xianFY2018毛maolilv61%,净jinglilv14%,财caiwushujujiaoduheqingzichanliansuoqiyedexiangsi,跟genxianzaizhuliudehulianwangjiaoyuqiyebushiyigehuafeng,而erxindongfangzai线xiandeziwozaoxuenengli,也yeshiqimeiyoujingliguoduolunrongzi,没meiyouxinataiduodewaibutouzizhedezhongyaoyuanyinzhiyi

zai线xianjiaoyubianjichengbenbingbugao,而erqiejuyouhenqiangdeguimoxiaoying,高gaomaolilvcemianshuominghulianwangjiaoyudeshangyeluojishipaodetongde。最zuixinyigongbucainianshujuxianshi,除chuliaozhengbaoyuanchengwai,流liulishuo、尚shangdejigou、无wuyouyingyu、沪hujiangjiaoyu、新xindongfangzai线xiandemaolilvduzai60%以yishang,毛maolilvzuigaodeshishangdejigou,FY2018毛maolilvgaoda83%。新xindongfangzai线xian61%的demaolilvshuyuzhongdengshuiping,但danshijinglilvjiaodu,大dabufengongsirengshikuisunzhuangtai,最zuixincainianliulishuo、尚shangdejigou、无wuyouyingyu、沪hujiangjiaoyujinglilvfenbiewei-77%/-47%/-36%/-97%,只zhiyouzhengbaoyuanchenghexindongfangzai线xiandejinglilvweizhengshu,FY2018分fenbiewei7%/14%,实shixianliaoyingli,新xindongfangzai线xiandeyinglinenglishifenchutiao

duibi3:销xiaoshoufeiyonglvyuandiyuxingyepingjunshuiping,营yingxiaofanganxiangduiwenhe

xiangjiaotongxingeryan,新xindongfangzai线xiankongfeifangmianshifenchuse。新xindongfangzai线xianFY2018销xiaoshoufeiyonglvwei34.4%,管guanlifeiyonglvwei22%,接jiejinzhengchangliansuoqiye,尤youqishixiaoshoufeiyonglvyuandiyuxingyepingjunshuiping,与yuzhuliuhulianwangjiaoyuqiyedaxiangjingting。主zhuliuhulianwangqiyedeyingxiaofeiyonglv,都dushi50%以yishang,甚shenzhi100%以yishang,这zheyeshidabufenhulianwangjiaoyuqiyeduchichimeiyouyingli,没meiyoushangshidezhuyaoyuanyin。而ershishishang,和hedabufenhulianwangjiaoyuqiyedefengkuangtoufang广guanggaoheduominglianhuandianxiaoCALL相xiangbi,新xindongfangzai线xianzaitoufang广guanggaoshang,似sihuqueshishibijiaowenhede,也ye使shidexindongfangzai线xianzhengtidexiaoshoufeilvwei34%,接jiejinchuantongliansuoqiye,显xianzhudiyuxianzaizhuliudehulianwangjiaoyuqiye。其qizhonghenzhongyaodeyuanyinzaiyuxindongfangzai线xianjiezhuxindongfangmugongsidepinpaixiaoying,节jieshengliaodaliang广guanggaozhichu,同tongshiqichengshudeguanlitixihexiangduiwendingdezengchangsudu,也yeyouxiaokongzhiliaoxindongfangzai线xianguanlifeiyongdezhichu。正zhengbaoyuanchengjibenchuyuchengshujieduan,其qipeixunrencibiandongfuduxiangduijiaoxiao,无wulunshixiaoshoufeiyonglvhuanshiguanlifeiyonglvjunchuyuzuidishuiping。除chucizhiwai,处chuyugaosukuozhangzhuangtaideliulishuo、尚shangdejigou、无wuyouyingyuyijihujiangjiaoyuzuixinwanzhengcainiandexiaoshoufeiyonglvfenbiewei111%/109%/64%/106%,营yingxiaotourujuda,竞jingzhengshifenjilie

duibi4:现xianjinliuzhuangkuanglianghaoqiewending

xindongfangzai线xianhezhengbaoyuanchengyijingshixianwendingyingli,增zengsuxiangduiwending,从congjingyingxingxianjinliudejiaodulaishuo,状zhuangkuanglianghao,经jingyingxingxianjinliuliangjingezhanshourubizhongzai20-30%左zuoyou,而erhujiangjiaoyuheliulishuojingyingxingxianjinliuliangjingeshangweizhuanzheng,无wuyouyingyuzhanshourubizhongjiaoxiao,而ershangdejigouyouyukuaisukuozhangguochengzhonggaibilibiandongjiaoda

3.营yingshouchuyukuaisufazhanjieduan,稀xiquedeshixianyinglidezai线xianjiaoyugongsi

3.1付fufeirenci/营yingshou/净jingli/FY16-18 CAGR72%/40%/23%

xindongfangzai线xianfufeixueshengrencicongFY2016的de65万wanrenshangshengzhiFY2018的de194万wanren,CAGR为wei72%,FY2019H1总zongfufeixueshengrencidadao110.4万wanren,同tongbizengjia27%。公gongsidezongfufeixueshengrenshubaochikuaisushangshengdequshi,人renshudezengjiatuidongliaoyingshoudezengchang

xindongfangzai线xianFY2016-2018收shouruCAGR达da40%,归guimujinglirunCAGR达da23%。营yingyeshourucongFY2016的de3.3亿yishangshengzhiFY2018的de6.5亿yi,CAGR为wei40%; FY2019H1实shixianyingyeshouru4.8亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang45%,公gongsizongtiyingshouzengsubaochilianghaodezhuangtai,随suizhuochengchangyewudetuozhan,实shixianchixuwenjianzengchang。公gongsiFY2016归guimujinglirunwei0.6亿yiyuan,FY2018归guimujinglirunwei0.8亿yiyuan,CAGR为wei23%。受shoudaoyewukuozhanghezai线xianjiaoyujingzhengchixujiliedeyingxiang,FY2018和heFY2019H1师shizichengbenhehuokechengbenyousuozengjia,导daozhimaolilvxiahuayijixiaoshoufeiyonglvdafutisheng,对duicihouwenhuijinxingxiangxifenxi

3.2未weilaixindongfangzai线xianshourudezengchangdianzainali?K12是shizhongyaozhendi,享xiangtianranyoushi

FY2016-2018大daxuejiaoyu/K12教jiaoyu/学xueqianjiaoyudefufeixueshengrenciCAGR分fenbiewei47%/76%/229%,报baomingliushuiCAGR分fenbiewei43%/86%/512%,K12教jiaoyujixueqianjiaoyuyouwangchengweiweilaishouruzengchangqiangjindonglilaiyuan,尤youqishiK12教jiaoyubufen,与yuxindongfangbenshenzhuyaoyewudexietongxiaoyinggengqiang

xindongfangzai线xianyue70%收shourulaiziyudaxuejiaoyu,K12比biliyousuotigao,2017年nianchenglidongfangyoubo,重zhongdianfaliK12培peixun,未weilaizengchangzhideqidai。不butongyuxindongfangK12部bufenyichengweishouruzhuti(新xindongfangyingshouzuchengzhong,K12辅fudaozhan62%),新xindongfangzai线xiandeshouruzhongyue70%左zuoyoulaiyuanyudaxuejiaoyu,包baokuokaoyanpeixun,出chuguoliuxuepeixundeng,近jinnianlai,新xindongfangzai线xianK12培peixunyewuzhanbiyousuotisheng,由youFY2016的de8%上shangshengzhiFY2018的de14%,提tigaoliao6个gepct,FY2019H1占zhanbijinyibutigaodao16%,但danxiangbiqidaxuepeixunyewuhuanyoujiaodachaju,2017年nianxindongfangzai线xianchenglitigongK12培peixundedongfangyoubopingtai,重zhongdianfaliK12培peixun,未weilaizengchangzhideqidai。学xueqianjiaoyushouruzhanbiyouFY2016的de0.2%上shangshengdaoFY2018的de2%,提tigaoliaoyue2个gepct,FY2019H1占zhanbijinyibutigaodao3%。机jigouyewushouruzhanbiyouFY2016的de21%下xiajiangdaoFY2018的de14%,下xiajiangyue7个gepct,FY2019H1占zhanbixiajiangdao10%。

xindongfangzai线xianyewujigouyuzaoqidexindongfangxiangsi,品pinpaibeishu,具juyoutianranyewutuozhanyoushi。虽suirancongdangqianshidianlaikan,新xindongfangzai线xiandezhuliyewuhexindongfangdezhuliyewuzhonghechengdubingbugao,但danshixindongfangzai线xiandeyewugoucheng,有youdianxiangxindongfangzaoqi(1995-2008)年niandeyewujiegou,FY2006新xindongfang89%收shourulaiyuanyuyuyanpeixunjikaoshizhunbeikecheng(类leisiduiyingxindongfangzai线xiandedaxuejiaoyu),仅jinyou4%收shourulaiyuanyuK12培peixun。新xindongfangpinpaibenshenjuyouxiangdanggaoderenzhidu,虽suirankenengbushizhijieyinliufangmiandehezuo,但danshixindongfanghuanshiweixindongfangzai线xiantigongliaoxiangdangqiangdepinpaibeishu,使shidexindongfangzai线xianzaijinxingxiangguanyewutuozhan(如ruK12培peixun,学xueqianjiaoyudeng)时shi,具juyoutianrandeyoushi

renshuzhanbiyushouruzhanbibiandongdaqushixiangtong,差chayiyouyufenyewukedanjiabutongdaozhi。前qianwenfenxiguoxindongfangzai线xiandedingjiaceluejiaodi,未weilaitijiakongjianjiaoda,但danshiduanqiweiliaoqiangzhanshichang,公gongsikenenghuitongguotigonggengduodijiaderumenkecheng,进jinxinghuokeyinliu,学xueqianjiaoyurenshuzhanbizhanbibiandongjiaoda,但danshiyinweiyuandiyuqitayewudekedanjia(FY2018正zhengshikechengdekedanjia,所suoyoukechengpingjun462元yuan,学xueqianjiaoyujinwei44元yuan),在zaishouruduanzhanbibianhuajiaoxiao。未weilaiyoulianggeyinsuyouwangcujinzhengtikedanjiatisheng:①随suizhuoyewuxiangduiwending,正zhengshikechengrenshuzhanbitigao,低dikedanjiaderumenkechengzhanbijiangdi;②随suizhuokechengmoshidebiangeng,高gaokedanjiachanpinduishourugongxianbilitigao,比birudongfangyoubodezhibokecheng,多duonawaijiaoxuetangkechengzheleizhibomoshidejinyibutui广guang

3.3未weilaixindongfangzai线xiandeyinglinenglihuishoudaonaxieyinsuyingxiang?毛maolilv&获huokechengben

FY2018新xindongfangzai线xianmaolilvhejinglilvfenbiewei61%和he15%,受shoudaoyewukuozhandeyingxiangyousuoxiahua。毛maolilvFY2018的de61%,下xiajiangliao7pct,FY2019H1为wei59%,同tongbixiajiang9个gepct。归guimujinglilvFY2018的de15%,下xiajiangliao6个gepct,FY2019H1为wei10%,同tongbixiajiang19个gepct。教jiaocaichengben、课kechengyanjiuchengbenhejiaoxuerenyuanchengbenzengjiadaozhiliaomaolidejianshao,大daxuejiaoyudemaolichuyuzhengchangshuiping,K-12教jiaoyuhexueqianjiaoyudemaolilvjiangdishiyinweiyewuchuyuchuqifazhanjieduan,需xuyaodaliangdeqianqitouziyixiyinlaoshi,开kaifaxinkechenghejiaocai

maolilvxiajiangzhuyaoyuanyinyouyujiaoxuerenyuanchengbenshangsheng。教jiaoxuerenyuanchengbenxiangduiyuyingshouzhanbicongFY2018为wei 19%,同tongbishangshengliao5个gepct,FY2019H1为wei20%,同tongbishangshengliao4个gepct。扩kuozhangguochengzhongduiyujiaoshiziyuandetourujiada,同tongshizaijingzhengjiliedehuanjingxiaweiliaoxiyinyouzhideshizi,成chengbenduanhuiyoutisheng,教jiaoxuerenyuanchengbenzhanshourubizhongzaitigao。公gongsitongguozhaopin、培peixunyijigaoxinliuyong,吸xiyinhebaoliuliaodaliangdeyouzhirencai。截jiezhiFY2019H1,在zaijiaoshiduiwuzhong,全quanzhijiaoshiyou221人ren,兼jianzhijiaoshiyou2232人ren,全quanzhixueguanshiyou79人ren,兼jianzhixueguanshiyou2890人ren。在zaijiaoshiduiwuzhizhong,绝juedabufenquanzhijiaoshiyijijianzhijiaoshiduchiyouxueshixuewei,三sanfenzhiyiyishangdejiaoshichiyoushuoshijiyishangxuewei,新xindongfangzai线xianshifenzhongshishizililiangdepeiyang

feiyongduanlaikan,管guanliheyanfafeiyonglvxiangduiwending,销xiaoshoufeiyonglvdafushangsheng。管guanlifeiyonglvjibenweichizai6%左zuoyou,规guimoxiaoyingxiayanfafeiyonglvzhunianlueyouxiajiang,相xiangduiwending。销xiaoshoufeiyonglvFY2018为wei35%,同tongbishangsheng5个gepct,FY2019H1为wei49%,同tongbishangshengliao12个gepct。FY2018大daxuejiaoyuhexueqianjiaoyudehuokechengbenlueyouzengchang,分fenbieshi74/6元yuan(FY2017分fenbiewei64/0元yuan)。FY2019H1大daxuejiaoyu/K-12/学xueqianjiaoyu/平pingjunhuokechengbenjundafuzengjia,分fenbiewei165/137/32/138元yuan,同tongbizengchang101%/291%/3100%/151%。

yingxiaokaizhizhuyaoshiyongzaidaxuejiaoyuyewushang,除chuliaochuantong线xianshangyingxiaozhiwai,还huantongguoxinmeitizaijingzhunyingxiaofangmiantourugengduoziyuan。k-12和hexueqianjiaoyuyewudekaizhiyousuotisheng,主zhuyaoyongyu线xianshangmeititui广guanghuodongzengjiayiji广guanggaofeishangsheng,暑shuqidecuxiaohuodonghuafeide广guanggaofeiyongdafuduzengjia。一yifangmianyaogongguzaidaxuejiaoyushangdelingxiandiwei,另lingyifangmianyeyaoweituozhank-12和hexueqianjiaoyuchengchangyewuzuotuidong

congyingxiangweilaiyinglinenglideyinsulaikan,主zhuyaoyoumaolilvhehuokechengbenbiandonglianggeyinsu,均junxuyaoconggongsihexingyelianggecengmianqukaolv——

①毛maolilvbiandong:公gongsicengmian,目muqiangongsiK12培peixunjixueqianjiaoyudemaolilvdiyuchengshudaxuejiaoyuyewu,随suizhuoxifenyewuchengshu,规guimoxiaoyingxia,综zonghemaolilvtishengkongjianda,但danxuzhuyideshizaikuaisukuozhangguochengzhongmaolilvrenghuimianlinjieduanxingxiajiangdeqingkuang。类leibixindongfangFY2004刚gangkaishifazhanK12业yewushi(收shouruzhan1%),K12业yewudemaolilvwei-3%,营yingyelirunlvwei-140%,而eryuyanpeixunhekaoshizhunbeikecheng(收shouruzhanbi96%)的demaolilvwei59%,营yingyelirunlvwei24%,随suihouK12业yewudekuisunzhubusuozhai,截jiezhiFY2018新xindongfangK12业yewudemaolilvwei63%,超chaoguoyuyanpeixunhekaoshizhunbeikecheng56%的demaolilvshuiping。行xingyecengmian,竞jingzhengjiajuhejianguanquyandebeijingxia,公gongsichengbenduanhuiyousuochengya,主zhuyaotixianzaishizichengbenshang。综zongheyingxiangxia,我womenyuceFY2019-2021毛maolilvfenbiewei57.5%/58.0%/58.4%(FY2018为wei61.2%)。

②获huokechengbenbiandong:公gongsicengmian,成chengchangyewutuozhanqi,低dikedanjiaderumenkechengzhanbitishengmingxian,获huokechengbenxiangjiaokedanjiaeryanjiaogao,随suizhuochengchangyewuxingchengyidingguimo,高gaokedanjiadezhengshikechengzhanbitisheng,同tongyangdehuokechengbenduiyingdailaidekedanjiashouruhuiyousuotigao。行xingyecengmian,我womenrenweisuizhuoshichangjingzhenghuanjingdebianhua,竞jingzhengjiliechengdujiaju,获huokechengbenzaiduanqihuiyousuopansheng,但danshidangtoubuxiangduiwendinghou,获huokechengbenyouwangxiajiang,目muqianxindongfangzai线xianyinjingzhengyalihuokechengbenzengchangfudujiaoda,不buguoxiangjiaotongxingeryan,其qiyingxiaofeiyonglvshuipingrengranbugao,短duanqiduiyinglishuipinghuiyousuoyazhi。综zongheyingxiangxia,我womenyuceFY2019-2021销xiaoshoufeiyonglvfenbiewei43.7%/42.0%/41.5%(FY2018为wei34.4%)。

3.4未weilaixuyaoguanzhuxindongfangzai线xiannaxieguanjianzhibiao?入rumenkecheng&录lubobili

womenrenweiduiyuyanjiuxindongfangzai线xianyixiajigezhibiaozhidezhongdianguanzhu——

①入rumenkechengderenshuzhanbihehuokechengbendebiandong:入rumenkechengyouyukedanjiajidi,一yifangmian,其qishouruzhanbiduiyuzhengtikedanjiabiandongjiaoweizhongyao,实shijishangFY2018综zonghekedanjiadexiahua,是shiyouyukedanjiabutongdeyewujiegoubiandongdaozhide,所suoyizaixifenzhengshikechengkedanjiadushangshengdeqingkuangxia,正zhengshikechengdepingjunkedanjiaquezaixiajiang,而errumenkechengbizhongdeshangshi,扩kuodaliaoxiajiangfudu,FY2019H1这zheyiyingxianggengweimingxian,在zaizhengshikechengpingjunkedanjiashangshengdeqingkuangxia,由youyurumenkechengrenshuzhanbidafudutisheng,整zhengtikedanjiarengranshixiahuade;另lingyifang便bian,其qizhanzongrenshudebizhongbiandongnenggoucemianfanyingchugongsideyunyingjieduanjimianlindewaibuyali,FY2019H1的dedafushangsheng,能nenggoutixianchugongsiduiyuchengchangyewudetourujiada,同tongshimianlindewaibujingzhengyejiaoweijilie。获huokechengbendebiandongduiyugongsideyinglinenglideyingxiangjiaoda,同tongshiyenenggoufanyingchuwaibujingzhengtaishi。我womenrenweiduanqirumenkechengrenshuzhanbihuiyousuopansheng,随suizhuochengchangyewuguimokuoda,这zhebufenzhanbiyouwangwenzhushenzhixiajiang。行xingyejingzhengjiliexianzhuangduanqineirenghuicunzai ,但danshiweilaitongyanghuokechengbendailaideshourukenenghuiyousuotigao

②录lubohezhibodeshouruzhanbibiandong:目muqianxindongfangzai线xianrengshiluboshouruzhanzhudaodiwei,前qianwentantaoguolubohezhiboyetaibenzhiyousuochayi,注zhuzhongduiyuyonghuxiguandepeiyang,互hudonggangengqiang,对duiyunyingdeyaoqiugenggao,形xingchengdebileiyegenggao,直zhibozhanbidebiandongduishouruduanhechengbenfeiyongjunhuidailaizhuanbian,直zhibokechengdekedanjiatongchanggaoyulubokecheng,成chengbenhefeiyongkaizhixiangduiyegengda,FY2018新xindongfangzai线xian2C直zhiboshouruzhanbiwei7%,同tongbilueyoutisheng1pct,而erFY2019H1,新xindongfangzai线xian2C直zhiboshouruzhanbiwei16%,同tongbidafutigao10pct。新xindongfangzai线xian2017年nianchenglidedongfangyoubojiushiyizhibokechengweizhudepingtai,我womenrenweiweilaixindongfangzai线xianzhibodebilihuiyousuotigao

4.投touzijianyiyuguzhi

zongdelaishuo,我womenrenweixindongfangzai线xianyongyouzhuojiaoqiangdepinpaiyoushijiyunyingnengli,我womenkanhaoqichuantongyewudaxuejiaoyudewenjianzengchang,以yijichengchangyewuyouqishiK12教jiaoyudekuaisufazhan,但danshikaolvdaojingzhengjiajuhezhengcejianguanquyanliangfangmiandeyingxiang,我womenrenweiduanqineilirunduandezengchangkenenghuiyousuochengya:①FY2018和heFY2019H1教jiaoshichengbendeshangsheng、获huokechengbendetigaoyijirumenkechengfufeirencizhanbidetisheng,均juncemianfanyingchuxingyejingzhengjiajudexianzhuang;②在zai线xianjiaoyuzai2018年nianzhiqianshuyujiaoyuxingyedejianguanmangqu,2018年nianjianguankaishicongwudaoyou,其qizhongK12培peixunyujihuichengweiweilaijianguandezhongdianbankuai,监jianguanquyandebeijingxiahuoduichengbenhekuozhangsuduzaochengyidingyali,小xiaogongsiyinweimanzubuliaoguifanyaoqiukenenghui退tuichujingzheng,之zhiqianchuyuyemanshengchangdegongsikuozhangsuduhuoshoudaomingxianxianzhi,新xindongfangzai线xiankuozhangsudujiaokuaidanxiangduiwenhe,对duiqizhuyaoyingxiangyujihuitixianzaichengbenduan,在zai线xianjiaoyuweilaimoshihuanxuyaochixutansuoheyouhua

yiFY2017和heFY2018来laikan,大dabufenzai线xianjiaoyuqiyebingweiyingli,而erxindongfangzai线xiannenggoushixianyingli,体tixianliaoqipinpaixiaoyingxia,极jijuyoushideyingxiaofeiyonglvshuiping,可kegeiyushidangyijia。虽suirandanyiPE来laikan,目muqianxindongfangzai线xianyue70x-100x的dePE并bingbu便bianyi,但danshiqiPS和hejutouxiangbirengzaiheliqujian,好haoweilaiFY2018的dePS估guzhiyue13x,新xindongfangzai线xianFY2018的dePS估guzhiyue10x,估guzhishangheli。我womenyucegongsiFY2019-2021营yingyeshourufenbiewei9.0/12.6/17.5亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang38%/40%/40%,归guimujinglirunfenbiewei0.8/1.0/1.3亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang-15%/30%/30%,首shoucifugai,给geiyuzengchipingji,目mubiaojia11.9港gangyuan

fengxiantishi

xingyejingzhengjiaju,获huokechengbentigao:若ruoxingyejingzhengjiaju,持chixuxiyinfufeixueyuannenglicunbuquedingxing,若ruohuokechengbenjinyibuzengjia,对duiyugongsiduanqiyinglinengliyingxiangjiaoda,为weiliaochixuxiyinxueyuanfufei,新xindongfangzai线xianbixubuduanyingduishichangjingzheng,研yanfagaozhiliangdekechengxiyinqianzaidexueyuan,保baochilianghaodekoubeihejiaoxuezhiliang,有youxiaokongzhihuokechengben

zai线xianjiaoyujianguanquyanfengxian:2018年nianzai线xianjiaoyujianguancongwudaoyou,影yingxiangshenyuan。互hulianwangjiaoyuyiqianyizhishijiaoyudejianguanmangqu,但danshi2018年nian8月yue10日ridesongshen稿gaozhongdi16条tiaodiyiciduihulianwangjiaoyujinxingliaozhengcecengmiandeguifan。而er2018年nian11月yue26日ri,教jiaoyubu、国guojiashichangjianguanzongju、应yingjiguanlibusanbumenbangongtinglianheyinfa《关guanyujianquanxiaowaipeixunjigouzhuanxiangzhilizhenggairuogangongzuojizhidetongzhi》中zhong,尤youqizhongdiantichuliaoduiyuzai线xianjiaoyujigoudejianguan:“强qianghuazai线xianpeixunjianguan——做zuohaomianxiangzhongxiaoxueshengdeliyonghulianwangjishushishidezai线xianjiaoyujigoudebeiangongzuo。线xianshangpeixunjigousuobanxuekeleipeixunbandemingcheng、培peixunneirong、招zhaoshengduixiang、进jinduanpai、上shangkeshijiandengbixuzaijigouzhusuodishengjijiaoyuxingzhengbumenbeian,必bixujiangjiaoshidexingming,照zhaopian,教jiaoshibancijijiaoshizigezhenghaozaiqiwangzhanxianzhuweizhiyuyigongshi。” 这zheduiyuzai线xianjiaoyujigoulaishuo,可kenenghuizaochengshenkedeyingxiang。若ruozai线xianjiaoyujianguanquyanhuoduigongsikuozhangsuduzaochengyingxiang,或huojiadaduiyuchengbenhefeiyongduandeyali

kuozhangguochengzhongyouxiudejiaoshidengrencaihuocunzaiduanquefengxian。如ruguokuozhangsuduguokuai,教jiaoshizhaopinkenengchuxianduanque,导daozhishengshibiguogao,从congeryingxiangjiaoxuezhiliang,对duijiaoyupinpaichanshengyidingfumianyingxiang,若ruojiaoshicunzaiduanque,教jiaoshichengbenyoushangshengfengxian,或huoladigongsizhengtilirunlv

qitashouru、收shouyijikuisunbodongjiaoda,或huoduilirunlvshuipingzaochengjiaodayingxiang:其qitashouru、收shouyijikuisuobaohanlixishouru,长changqitouzigongyunjiazhibiandongsunyi,金jinrongzichanguquanjiazhibaidongsunyi,汇huiduishouyidengkemu,不butongnianfenzhongxiangmubiandongfudujiaoda,或huoguimulirunlvshuipingzaochengjiaodayingxiang。以yi理财产品delixishouruweili,目muqian,新xindongfangzai线xianFY2016,FY2017。FY2018理licaichanpinshouyifenbiezhanqishuiqianlirunde21%,38%,48%,理licaichanpindeshouyilvcunzaibuquedingxing

(编bianji:朱zhushulin)

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