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国泰君安:A股高开低走是利好出尽,还是机会来临?

2019-04-16     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来源微信公众号“国泰君安证券研究”,作者国泰君安策略团队。“货币政策效果好坏的一个关键变量在人心,人们的信心提升,未来我们可以看到的现象是,即使货币政策不再放松,社会融资总量也会超预期地增长,这对基建投资有利,所以我们认为消费股的行情在….

benwenlaiyuanweixingongzhonghao“国guotaijunanzhengquanyanjiu”,作zuozheguotaijunanceluetuandui

“货huobizhengcexiaoguohaohuaideyigeguanjianbianliangzairenxin,人renmendexinxintisheng,未weilaiwomenkeyikandaodexianxiangshi,即ji使shihuobizhengcebuzaifangsong,社shehuirongzizongliangyehuichaoyuqidizengchang,这zheduijijiantouziyouli,所suoyiwomenrenweixiaofeigudexingqingzaixiajieduanjiangzhuanjiaogeizhouqigu”。

“社sherongtixiandebuyidingshihuobizhengce,还huankenengshirenxin。”——这zheyiguandianzaishangzhoufabudejinrongshujuzhongdedaoliaoyinzheng

3月yuexinzengsherong2.86万wan亿yi,比biquniantongqiduozeng1.2万wan亿yi

qizhong,人renminbidaikuanjiugongxianliao8000亿yi

qitabufen,表biaowairongzibenyuetongbixinzengda3353亿yiyuan,专zhuanxiangzhaibenyuetongbixinzengda1870亿yiyuan,也yeshitongbixinzengdezhengxianggongxian

ranermianduidafuchaoyuqidehuobichuangzao,周zhouyideA股queyigaokaidizouweipanshoudielaihuiying。是shilihaochujin,还huanshijihuilailin?这zhequjueyuliangdawenti——

diyi,信xinyongdidaolaihou,盈yinglidishimeshihoulai?

dier,若ruoyinglidizuizhongchuxian,机jihuizaihechu?

guotaijunancelueyanjiutuanduijiyuguotaijunanduchuangdeyingliyucemoxing,结jieheduidangxiazhengceyushichangqingxudepanduan,试shituzhaochudaan

01 信xinyongdilailiaoyinglidihuanhuiyuanma

dangqishichangyizhiyuqi,经jingjijianghui沿yanzhuo“政zhengcedi-信xinyongdi-经jingjidi”的delujingyanhua,而erzhengcedizai2018年nian7月yuehouquerenhou,当dangqianshichangguanzhuzhongdianzaiyukuanhuobixiangkuanxinyongdechuandao,以yijijinyibuxiangjingjidongnengdechuandaoxiaoguo

2019年nian1月yuetianliangsherongshujudefabu,在zaiyidingchengdushangzengqiangliaoshichangduiyuxinyongdichuxiandexinxin,但danrengbunengqueren

3月yuedesherongzaicidafuchaoyuqi,让rangwomenquerenxinyongdiyijingdaolai。我womenrenwei,市shichangjiexialaideguanzhudianjiangzhuanxiangyinglidi

conglishibijiaoshijiaolaikan,我womenjiangmuguangsuodingzaixinyongzhouqikuozhangzaoqi,即ji:已yijingkandaoxinyongdibu,而erhongguanjingjigaishanshangweimingxidejieduan

zaiguojunzongliangsishouxizaidujitifasheng:一yigeguancha,两liangdianleguan,三sangeshengfushouzhongwomentiji,基jiyuxindaizengsuyijisherongzengsudebianhua,我womenshaixuanliaolishishangsanlunxindaikuozhangzhouqi:2005年nian、2012年nianhe2015年nian

2005、2012和he2015

weikejiejiandesanlunxindaikuozhangzhouqi

shujulaiyuan:Wind,国guotaijunanzhengquanyanjiu

womenfenbiekaochawajuejixiaolianghegudingzichantouzi、30大dazhongchengshishangpinfangchengjiaomianjihefangdichankaifatouziwanchenge、商shangyongchexiaoshouzengsuyuqichexiaoshouzengsushuju,发faxianzhongguangaishandaoyinglidechuandaoxuyao1-2个gejidu

zaozhouqidewajuejixiaoliangjiaotouzigengzaofusu

shujulaiyuan:Wind,国guotaijunanzhengquanyanjiu

yincijieheguojunyingliyucemoxing,我womenrenweiyinglididechuxiandagailvzaisanjidu


shujulaiyuan:Wind,国guotaijunanzhengquanyanjiu

02 结jiegouxiadejinji

shangzhoushichangzhendangxiaxingdeyuanyinzhiyi,是shiqianqiyijingyousuozhanhuodetouzizhezaiquebaoshouyiduixian,即jiwomensuotichude“第diyigeshengfushou”。

xianzai,我womenrenweidiergeshengfushouyijingdaolai

jinniandediergeshengfushoushiduihouyijieduanzaozhouqijiegouxingjihuidebawo。虽suiranduanqihongguancengmianshangbunengkandaoshujutixian,但danzhongguancengmianzaozhouqilingyudejijibianhuayijingfasheng,这zhexiejijidebianhuajianghuisuizhuoshichangduiyuyinglizhongshichengdudezengqiangerhuodeguanzhu

suizhuoshichangzhuanxiangyinglizhanzhudaodexiabanchang,机jigouzhuliuzijinzhujianjiaqiangfali,基jiyujibenmianluojiyouxiangguanshujukegonggenzong,资zibenzhichu、地dichantouzihenaiyongxiaofeipinweizhudaodezaozhouqibankuaixingqingyouwanghuodexiangduishouyi

butongyushangbanchangzijinqudong,主zhutichaozuozhudaoshichang,下xiabanchangjianghuiguijibenmianchaoyuqi

yizichanjiageweidu,虽suiranxiaofeixiangduizhouqideguzhiweizhirengzai2003年nianyilaidejunzhizhixia,但danjingli2015供gonggeicegaigezhihoudezhouqipinjinfeixibi,如ruguoyi2015年nianyilaidejunzhilaikan,周zhouqixiangduiyuxiaofeideguzhixingjiabizhengzaituxian

zichanjiageweidu

zhouqixingjiabizhengzaituxian

shujulaiyuan:Wind,国guotaijunanzhengquanyanjiu

03 落luodaiweianhouzhouqiShow Time

womenrenwei,后houxushichangzhu线xianyaocongzijinqudongderedianlundong,向xiangjibenmianzhichengdeguzhiwadiqiehuan

shijishang,近jinqishichangyejibaogaobiaoxiantuchudebankuaibiaoxianjiaohao,已yijingchubuxianshichushichangduiyuyinglizhongshichengdudejiaqiang

zaiciluojizhixia,我womenchixutuijianzhouqibankuai

shouxian,虽suiranduanqihongguancengmianshangbunengkandaoshujutixian,但danzhongguancengmianzaozhouqilingyudejijibianhuayijingfasheng,稳wenzengchangyuqidiejiadiguzhiyinsu,周zhouqibankuaijiangyoumingxianbiaoxian,如rujiancai、钢gangtie、地dichandengxingye

qici,伴bansuijibenmianheyejibeiguanyuqishifang,受shouyikejichuangxinzhengcehongli、科kechuangbanfusheyijisherongdafuchaoyuqi,市shichangfengxianpianhaojixuxiufu,泛fanzaidianliwulianwang、5G、智zhinengwanglianqiche、国guoqigaigedenggainianbankuaijiangyinglaibiaoxianjihui

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