您当前的位置:牛牛财经 > 股票

中央银行是否仍然能发挥作用?

2019-04-16     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:上周对于各国的中央银行而言是重要的一周。三月份的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议记录内容已经公布,让我们深入的了解到了美联储对全球经济和降息的看法,与此同时,欧洲央行(ECB)决定继续维持超宽松的政策路线。我们注意到,央行对支撑经济增长、控制通货….

shangzhouduiyugeguodezhongyangyinxingeryanshizhongyaodeyizhou。三sanyuefendelianbanggongkaishichangweiyuanhui(FOMC)会huiyijiluneirongyijinggongbu,让rangwomenshenrudeliaojiedaoliao美联储duiquanqiujingjihejiangxidekanfa,与yucitongshi,欧ouzhouyangxing(ECB)决juedingjixuweichichaokuansongdezhengcelu线xian。我womenzhuyidao,央yangxingduizhichengjingjizengchang、控kongzhitonghuopengzhanghewendingjingjizhiguanzhongyao。但dansuizhuozhexiejigoubiandegengjiazhengzhihua,完wanchengzhexierenwudenanduyizaibuduanzengjia

meilianchujiangdiliaojiangxiyuqi

sanyuefendelianbanggongkaishichangweiyuanhui(FOMC)会huiyijiluneirongxianshi,由youyuquanqiujingjifanghuanhemaoyizhengcedebuquedingxing,美meilianchu(Fed)今jinnianyujibuhuijiaxi,但dantayebuqiwangzaiduanqineijiangxi。美meilianchusihuxiangxintazaigaibianzhengcelichangfangmiansuocaiqudexingdongzugouxunsu,以yizhiyuzaiduanqineibuxuyaocaiqugengduoxingdong,美meiguojingjijiangnenggoujingshouzhulaiziquanqiujingjifanghuandechongji。这zherangwogandaodanyou,因yinweiruguomeilianchuyushujuzhijianwufamiqiexiediao,美meilianchukenenghuizhanzhanzixidijixubaochizhezhongguanwangmoshi,正zhengrutaduiquniandingqijiaxidetaiduyiyang。好haoxiaoxishi,一yixieweiyuanhuichengyuanbiaoshi,他tamenkeyigenjujijianggongbudeshujulaijuedingmeilianchuxiayibuyinggaijiaxihuanshijiangxi。不buguozaiwokanlai,这zhesihubiaomingliaoyizhongmeilianchujiangyikaoshujulaizuochuxiangyingxingdongdeqingxiang。我worenwei,美meilianchubixuzhiliyuduishujudeyilai,才caineng使shiqihuobizhengcezaijinnianqudechenggong

huiyijiluxianzhudigaibianliaoshichangyuqi:截jiezhi3月yue26日ri,人renmenrenweiniandiqianhuiyouyicihuoduocijiangxidegailvchaoguo65%。然raner,截jiezhi4月yue12日ri(周zhouwu),这zheyigailvyijingjiangzhi36%。因yinci,美meilianchusihuhenfangxin,只zhiyaoanxiazhengchanghuade“暂zantinganniu”,就jiuzuyizhichimeiguohequanqiujingji。但danshishiguozhenrucima?

jianadayangxingyechuyuguanwangzhuangtai

jianadayangxing(BOC)的delichangxianranyumeilianchuleisi。加jianadayangxingxingchangsidifen·波boluosi(Stephen Poloz)在zaizuijindeyiciyanjiangzhongbiaoshi,考kaolvdaojianadajingjimianlindebuliyinsu(包baokuomaoyibuquedingxing、房fangdichanshichangpiruanhegenggaodejianadajiatingzhaiwushuiping),加jianadayangxingjiangbalilvweichizaizhongxinglilvdeshuipingyixia。但danyumeiguoyiyang,鉴jianyujianadayangxingjinqisihubudasuanjiangxi,我womenbudebutichuyiwen,这zheyangdezuofashifouzugoune?

ouzhouyangxingmuqianrengchiguanwangtaidu——它tashifouhuanxuyaozuodianshime?

ouzhouyangxing(ECB)目muqianyechuyuleisidejingdi。上shangzhou,欧ouzhouyangxingzhaokaihuiyi,决juedingweichiqichaokuansongdehuobizhengcebubian。据jucheng,这zheyangzuodeliyoushigeizuijinchutaidehuobizhengcecijicuoshiliuyouzugoudeshijian,以yiduijingjichanshengzuoyong。但dankaolvdaojinjigeyuelai经济数据deehua,我woduizheyangdezuofashifouzugoubaochi怀huaiyi。欧ouzhouyangxingxingchangmaliao·德delaji(Mario Draghi)在zaiyicijianghuazhongbiaodaliaomingquedeguandian:“即jijianggongbudeshujuyiranpiruo,尤youqishizhizaoyedeshuju......预yujijinnianjingjizengchangfanghuandeshitoujiangyanxuxiaqu。”但danjianyuoumeng(EU)选xuanju、西xibanyadaxuanyijiyidalidengguoriyiyanzhongdezhaiwuwenti,地diyuanzhengzhifengxianzaibuduanshangsheng,如ruguoweilaijigeyuexitongxingyalishangsheng,央yangxingmuqiandezuofajiuzugouliaoma?

zuihou,我womenxiangzhidaoouzhouyangxingshifouzhengzaixunzhaoyigemuqianrengweizhaodaode、但danheshidehuobizhengcegongju,即jibuhuixiangdangqianzhengceyiyanghuidailaiyiliaozhiwaiqiefumianhouguodezhengcegongju。德delajiyezhengshi,政zhengcezhidingzhezhengzaikaolvcaiquxiangyingcuoshi,以yijianqinglilvduiyinxingdefumianyingxiang,以yijizhenduiyinxingdexinchangqizairongzicaozuo(TLTRO)贷daikuan,但dantayebiaoshixianzaizuochujuedinghuanweishishangzao。不buguo,我wobuquedingouzhouyangxingshifouhuicaiqugengduodecuoshi。正zhengruwozhiqiansuoshuo,德delajiheouzhouyangxingzhixingweiyuanhuidelingwailiangmingchengyuandushi“跛bojiaoya(lame duck)”。此ciwai,在zaiouzhouyangxingguanliweiyuanhui(ECB governing council)的de19位weiyangxingxingchangzhong,有you8位weijiangzaijinnianniandiqianxieren。因yinci,假jiashexiayijieouzhouyangxingkenenghuigaibianzhengcelu线xian,那nameshichangduidangqianouzhouyangxingdejuecekenengmeiyouduoshaoxinxin

geguoyangxingmianlinzhuoriyigaozhangdezhengzhilangchao

zhengruguoji货币基金zuzhi(IMF)上shangzhouzaiqi《世shijiejingjizhanwang》(World Economic Outlook)中zhonggaishudenayang,上shangzhoudeqingkuangzhengtixingwomen,面mianduiriyizengchangdetiaozhan,各geguoyangxingzaizhichijingjizengchang、控kongzhitongzhanghewendingjingjifangmianrengjianfuzhuojudadezeren。而ersuizhuogeguoyangxingbiandegengjiazhengzhihua,这zheyizerenzhengbiandeyufajianju

weiliaoshuomingzheyidian,《经jingjixueren》杂zazhizaiqizuijinyiqidefengmiangushizhongyi“Interference Day—Central Banks in the Age of Populism”为weiti,专zhuanmenbaodaoliaozheyizhuti。例liru,由youyuouzhouxuanjujiangyu5月yuefenjuxing,对duidelajijirenzhedexuanzekenenggengjuzhengzhixing。我womenzaituerqi、印yinduyijimeiguodukandaoliaoyangxingzhengzhihua,这zheshiyigefeichangzhongyaodewenti,以yizhiyuzaishangzhoudeIMF会huiyishangchengweiliaoyigezhuyaoyiti。德delajishenzhiduimeiguofabiaokanfa,宣xuanchengta“肯kendingdanxinyangxingdedulixing”,尤youqishi“在zaiquanqiuzuizhongyaodesifaguanxiaqu”。我womenyaomianduideshi:央yangxingkenenghuishoudaoyishitukongzhituoliminzhudejingyingzhuyihezhuanyejinengbaoleidemincuizhuyiyundongdegongji。实shijishang,在zaiguoqu10年nianli,央yangxingdezhengcejiajuliaocaifubupingdeng,为weidiyuanzhengzhidongdanghemincuizhuyidexingqipupingliaodaolu

weishimeyaodanxinzhegene?如ruguoyangxingbiandegengjiazhengzhihua,那nametamenjiangyoukenengwufazaiweilaideweijizhongqidaoyouxiaodeganyuzuoyong。鉴jianyugeguozaimianduigaozhaiwushuipingdeweijishi,在zaicaizhengfangmianjinxingganyudenandukenenggengda,这zheyidianzekenengtebiechengwenti。尽jinguanxuduoguojiazhengzaijinglijingjikuozhang(通tongchangqingkuangxia,经jingjikuozhang使shidezhengfuchanghuanzhaiwuerfeichengdangengduodezhaiwu),但danzhexiezhaiwushuipingrengzaijixuzengchang

jiuzaishangzhou,我womenhuixiangqiliaozhaiwuwenti:根genjumeiguocaizhengbudeshuju,美meiguo3月yuefendeyusuanchiziwei1469亿yimeiyuan,6个geyuedechizi(自zi2018年nian10月yue1日riyilai)为wei6912亿yimeiyuan,与yu2018年niantongqixiangbizengchang15.3%,表biaomingzhenggeguojiadezhaiwuzhuangkuangzaiehua。公gongzhongchiyoudelianbangzhaiwuyujijiangzai2019年niandidadao16.6万wan亿yimeiyuan,占zhanGDP的de78%,预yujidao2029年nianjiangzengzhi28.7万wan亿yimeiyuan,占zhanGDP的de93%。

zhaiwushangshengjiufashengzaiwomendeshenbian。意yidalizhengfuchengren,它tamenjiangwufadadaoyuoumengdangjudachengdeyusuanchizimubiao(这zhekenenghuidaozhiyubulusaierdeguanxizaidujinzhang)。预yujimingnianyusuanchizijiangchaoguoGDP的de3%,到dao2022年niandadao3.7%,未weilaijinianshenzhihuigenggao。IMF最zuixindecaizhengjianceshujuxianshi,意yidalidegonggongzhaiwubilvyujizai2020年nianshangshengzhiGDP的de134.4%,2024年nianshengzhiGDP的de138.5%。这zhejiangweifanyidaliyuoumengqiandingde《马masitelihetetiaoyue》(Maastricht Treaty),该gaitiaoyuejiangzhaiwuhechizidemubiaofenbieshedingweiGDP的de3%和he60%。


收集整理:牛牛财经网
本文地址:https://stock.nncj.com/a/23246
共有条评论发表评论
验证码:
推荐阅读