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美国低通胀?不存在的!巨大的资产泡沫就快爆炸了!

2019-04-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:在过去几年里,一个谬论席卷整个经济学领域:认为美国经济几乎没有通货膨胀,因此利率应该在异常低的水平上且能维持更长的时间。然而,在这个非比寻常并由央行驱动的经济周期中,通胀主要体现在资产价格中,而非消费价格中。由于长期将利率维持在过低水平,….

zaiguoqujinianli,一yigemiulunxijuanzhenggejingjixuelingyu:认renweimeiguojingjijihumeiyoutonghuopengzhang,因yincililvyinggaizaiyichangdideshuipingshangqienengweichigengchangdeshijian

raner,在zaizhegefeibixunchangbingyouyangxingqudongdejingjizhouqizhong,通tongzhangzhuyaotixianzaizichanjiagezhong,而erfeixiaofeijiagezhong

youyuchangqijianglilvweichizaiguodishuiping,美meiguoyijingxingchengliaoyigejudadezichanpaomo。只zhiyaojingjixuejiahe美联储dengyangxingyumeidixiangxinsuoweide“低ditongzhang”,那nametonghuopengzhangjiangjinyibukuoda。而erzhechangshiwuqianlidezichanpaomodepolie,将jiang使shimeiguohequanqiujingjizaicixianruxiaotiao

meiguozongtongtelangpu(Donald Trump)是shi“低ditongzhang”的dekuangrexintuzhiyi。他tazengduocibaoyuanmeilianchuzaitaderenqineijiaxi。在zaiguoqusannianli,美meilianchujianglilvcong0%上shangdiaozhi2.5%,但danshijishangyulishishang5%的delilvxiangbirengchuyudiwei

mingniabolisilianbangchubeiyinxing(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)行xingchangnier•卡kashikali(Neel Kashkari)也yerenweitongzhangrengchuyudiwei,甚shenzhirenweimeilianchuyinggairangtongzhangzaiweilaijiniangaoyuqimubiao

zhumingtouzizhuanjia、CNBC电dianshijiemu“Mad Money”主zhuchirenjimu•克kelaimo(Jim Cramer)直zhiyanbuhuidipiping美联储加息,并bingxiangxin“低ditongzhang”神shenhua

meilianchuyigerenxiaofeizhichu(PCE)价jiagezhishu(不bubaokuobodongjiaodadeshipinhenengyuan)作zuoweijiancetonghuopengzhangdehexinzhibiao,该gaizhishuzhuizongdeshimeiguoxiaofeipinhefuwudejiage。美meilianchudeguanfangmubiaoshimeinian2%的detonghuopengzhanglv,但dangenjuPCE指zhishu,如rujindetonghuopengzhanglvbidaxiaotiaoshiqiyilaidehuanyaodi

jinrongmeitizuichangyinyongdetongzhangzhishushihexinxiaofeizhejiagezhishu(CPI)(不bubaokuobodongjiaodadeshipinhenengyuan)。然ranerzhexiangzhishuyuPCE传chuandaliaoleisidexinxi,即jizidaxiaotiaoshiqiyilai,消xiaofeizhejiagetongzhangyizhibuwenbuhuo

daxiaotiaoshiqiyilai,工gongzizengsuyechuyudizhi

liaojie,主zhuliujingjixuequanziduichuantongtongzhangzhibiaodeguoduyilai,导daozhi“通tongzhangyizhijizhongyuzichanjiageerfeixiaofeijiage”的dezheyishishibeiqiwanquanhushi。正zhengruxiatusuoshi,自zi2009年nian3月yue美股niushikaishiyilai,全quanqiugupiaohezhaiquandengzichandeshangzhangsuduyuangaoyuquanqiushitijingjijiagedezengsu

xiaofeizhejiagezhishu(CPI)一yizhibaochizaidiwei,而erzichanjiagezhishu(asset price)却quechuxianliaobaozhashizengchang,这zheshiyinweizichanjiageyizhizaichongdangtongzhangyalideanquanfa,而ertongzhangyalizeshiyoudililvhexiangquanqiujinrongtixizhurushuwan亿yimeiyuanliudongxingsuozaochengde

youyumeilianchuzaidaxiaotiaoshiqijiyihoudeshijianlicaiquliaojijinqiefeichangguidehuobizhengce,美meiguomuqianyijingxingchengliaoyigejudadezichanpaomo

zaizhexiejijindehuobizhengcezhong,第diyigezhengcebeichengweilinglilvzhengce(ZIRP)。美meilianchujianglianbangjizhunlilvjihujiangzhiweiling,并bingweichiliaohenchangyiduanshijian。资zichanhexindaipaomotongchangshizaiyangxingrenweidijianglilvjiangzhijiaodishuipingshixingchengde,此cishijiedaichengbenjiangdi,低dililvyizhichuxu,鼓gulitoujigaofengxianzichan,导daozhigenggaodetongzhanglv。互hulianwangpaomohemeiguofangdichanpaomoyeshizaililvxiangduijiaodideshiqixingchengde

ciwai,2008年niandao2014年nian,美meilianchudelianghuakuansongzhengce(QE)向xiangmeiguojinrongtixizhuruliaojiazhi3.5万wan亿yimeiyuandeliudongxing。下xiatuxianshiliaozilianghuakuansongzhengceshishiyilai,美meilianchuzichanfuzhaibiaodezengchangqingkuang

meilianchudelinglilvzhengcehelianghuakuansongzhengce使shibiaopu500指zhishucong2009年niandedidianbiaoshengliao300%以yishang

meilianchuzichanfuzhaibiaozengchangdaozhibiaopu500指zhishuxiangyingshangzhang

youyumeilianchuzaiguoqu10年nianlicaiqujijindezhengcecelue,标biaopu500指zhishudeshangzhangsuduyuankuaiyushouyi

meilianchujijindezhengceyijingzaimeiguojiatingcaifuzhongzhizaoliaoyigeweixiandepaomo。近jinnianlai,美meiguojiatingjingzichanyuGDP的debizhichuangxiaxingao,表biaomingjiatingcaifuguodupengzhang,而erlishizegaosuwomen,这zheyangdepengzhangzuizhongjiangbukebimiandizouxiangbengkui

juyingzizhengfutongjijigoujingyingzheyuehan·威weilianmusi(John Williams)说shuo,美meiguodeCPI公gongshiduonianlaiyizhizaigaibian,目mudeshiweiliaodigutonghuopengzhanglv。如ruguocaiyong1980年nian(蓝lan线xian)的deCPI公gongshicesuan,可keyikandaoniantonghuopengzhanglvdayuezai10%左zuoyou,而erfeixianzaide2%(红hong线xian)。

tongyang,如ruguocaiyong1990年nian(蓝lan线xian)的deCPI公gongshicesuan,可keyisuanchuniantongzhanglvdayuewei5%,而erfei2%。

zongeryanzhi,美meiguoyichuxianliaofeichangyanzhongdetonghuopengzhangwenti,但danbingbushisuoyourenduzaiguanzhuta。不buxingdeshi,泡paomozuizhongjiangpoliebingdaozhijingjixiaotiao

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