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邓海清:中国经济拐点证实“意外早到”,政策微调迎来拐点期

2019-04-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“海清FICC频道”,作者邓海清、陈曦。2019年一季度GDP同比增速6.4%,市场预期6.3%,前值6.4%;工业增加值同比8.5%,市场预期5.9%,前值5.3%;社会消费品零售总额8.7%,市场预期8.4%,前值8.2%;固定资产投资增速6.3%,市场预期6.3%,前值6….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“海haiqingFICC频pindao”,作zuozhedenghaiqing、陈chenxi

2019年nianyijiduGDP同tongbizengsu6.4%,市shichangyuqi6.3%,前qianzhi6.4%;工gongyezengjiazhitongbi8.5%,市shichangyuqi5.9%,前qianzhi5.3%;社shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzonge8.7%,市shichangyuqi8.4%,前qianzhi8.2%;固gudingzichantouzizengsu6.3%,市shichangyuqi6.3%,前qianzhi6.1%。

yijidu经济数据yuanchaoshichangyuqi,符fuhewomendeyuqi

womenzai3月yuexiaxunkaishiquanmiankanhao3月yuezhongguojingjishuju,在zaibaogao3月yue26日ribaogao《国guozhaishouyilvzhibipo“3”,债zhainiushigaijixu“守shouzhudaitu”,还huanshiyaobianwei“勤qinlaoxiaomifeng”呢ne?》、3月yue31日ribaogao《PMI半bannianhouzhonghuirongku线xianshang,经jingjiguaidianxinhao“意yiwai”早zaodao,货huobikuansongjiamapoqiexingjiangdi》等dengzhongjuntichu,“3月yuejingjishujujiangquanmianchaoshichangyuqi”。

womenduiyijiduGDP预yuqijiushi6.4%,而erbushishichanggongshide6.3%。我womenyuqidegongyezengjiazhiwei6.4%,为weiquanshichangdezuigaoyuqi。出chukouyuqizai15%,同tongyangyeshiquanshichangzuigaoyuqi

womenzhisuoyichenggongyuce3月yuejingjishuju,主zhuyaoyuanyinzaiyu:没meiyoumangmudeyikaoguanxingsiweiqupianzhikankongzhongguojingji,基jiyugongkaixinxidezhusimajixunzhaoyushichangdeyuqicha

womenzai3月yuePMI公gongbuzhiqian,就jiuqiangliekanduo3月yuejingjishujudeyijuzhuyaobaokuo

1、海haiguanzongshushuchangniyuefeng3月yue9日rizaijieshoucai访fangshibiaoshi,今jinnianchunjieguohou,我woguohuowumaoyijinchukouzengsudafuhuisheng;商shangwububuchangchendemingyebiaoshi,中zhongguo3月yuefenqian10天tiandejinchukoubiaoxianbi2月yuefentongqiyoumingxianhaozhuan

2、统tongjijugongbu,1-2月yuetichuchunjieyinsudegongyezengjiazhi6.1%。

3、总zonglichuxiboaoyazhouluntanbiaoshi,“今jinnianyilai,中zhongguojingjiwendingyunxingbingchuxianyixiejijibianhua”、“特tebieshijinru3月yuefen,日rijunfadianliang、用yongdianliangzengsudadaoliangweishu,进jinchukou、货huoyundengzengchangjiakuai”。

4、4月yuegaopinshuju

henduoshichangtouyanrenyuanduiyuguanfangdebiaoshujinxingliaoxuanzexinghushi,认renweitongjiju、海haiguanzongshudengdushizaiweiliaokanduojingjierzhaoliyou,但danwomenjianxinzhongguotongjibumendekeguanxing,基jiyutongjibumengongbudeshuju,很henrongyijisuanchu3月yueshujujiangyuanchaoshichangyuqi

zuizhijiedeluojishi,1-2月yuetichuchunjieyinsudegongyezengjiazhi6.1%,而eryinweichunjieyinsudaozhi1-2月yuedegongyezengjiazhijinwei5.3%,那name3月yuebiranyaobushangchazhi,所suoyi,3月yuegongyezengjiazhiculuegujiqimayaozaizhengchangshuiping+0.8%甚shenzhigenggao,那namegongyezengjiazhiyuanchaoshichangyuqizuigaozhi6.1%是shibirande

yijidujingjiguaidianyijingqueli

womenzaizhiqiandeduofenbaogaozhongfanfuqiangdiao,经jingjiguaidianyijingchuxian。从congyijidugongbudejingjishujukan,经jingjiguaidianyijingzhengshiqueli

zuiweihexindelianggezhibiao,一yigeshiGDP同tongbizengsu,6.4%与yu2018年niansijiduGDP增zengsuchiping,经jingjimeiyoujinyibuxiahua

gengweiguanjiandelingyigezhibiaoshigongyezengjiazhi,一yijidutongbi6.5%,远yuangaoyu2018年niansanjidujunzhi6%、四sijidujunzhi5.7%。

shichangkenenghuijiang3月yuegongyezengjiazhizaidujieshiweichunjieyinsu、减jianshuidaozhidetiqianshengchandengdeng,但danshi1-3月yuedeleijitongbishizhenshide,经jingjiguaidianqueshiyijingchuxian

退tuiyibujiang,社sherongguaidianyingdangshishichanggongshi,3月yuesherongcunliangtongbizengsugaoda10.7%,社sherongguaidianzai1月yueyijingchuxian,按anzhaozhihou1-3季jidulaijiang,二erjidujingjiyeyingdanghuinuan

zonghelaijiang,我womenrenwei,一yijidujingjiguaidianyijingqueli,这zheyushichangpubianyuqide2019年nianjingji“前qiandihougao”完wanquanbutong

jingjichaoyuqizhuyinkuanxinyong、房fangdichan、信xinxingaishan

womenrenweiyijidujingjiquanmianchaoshichangyuqi,主zhuyaoyinweisanzhongyinsu

diyi,宽kuanxinyongzhengceluodi。宽kuanxinyongzhengcecong2018年nian7月yuekaishichutai,2019年nianyilaichixujiama,落luodichengduyuanhaoyushichangyuqi

womenqiangdiao,中zhongguozhengfudeyigetuchuyoushizaiyu,一yidanyixiangzhengceshangshengweiguojiazhanluegaodu,那nameqiluodidechengduzongshihuichaochushichangyuqi,让rangshichangcong怀huaiyidaobudebuxin,只zhixuyaojigeyuedeshijian

dier,房fangdichanyuanhaoyushichangyuqi。市shichangciqianpubiandanyoufangdichanzai2019年nianbudie,因yinwei2018年nianfangdichanshijibingburuo,再zaijiashangpenggaihuobihuazhengcede退tuichu房产税yuqidengdeng,都durangshichangyuqi2019年nianfangdichanhuichuwenti

danshijishang,更gengyingdangkandaojijidefangmian,房fangdichan“因yinchengshice”实shijiduihenduochengshishibianjifangsongdiaokong,低difangdaililvyeyiweizhuofangdichanxuqiuhuisheng,房fangdichankucunchuyuchaojidiwei,房fangdichanshangrongzitiaojianxianzhuhaozhuan,这zhexieduweifangdichantigongliaozhicheng

congshujulaikan,1-3月yuefangdichantouzizengsu11.8%,高gaoyu2018年nianquanniande9.5%;1-3月yuefangdichanshigongmianjitongbi8.2%,高gaoyu2018年nianquanniande5.2%。

disan,企qiye、居juminxinxinmingxiangaishan

qiyexinxingaishanzhuyaolaiyuanyujianshuijiangfu,宽kuanxinyongzhengcedeluodi,以yijiduiminqi、小xiaoweidengyixiliecongshangerxiadezhengcezhichi,再zaijiashangguojimaoyihuanjinghuanhe

juminxinxingaishanzhuyaolaiyuanyuduijianshuizhengceciji,经jingjibeiguanyuqiniuzhuan,股gushihuinuan,房fangdichanxiadieyuqijianshaodengdeng,表biaoxianweijuminduanqidaikuantigao,3月yuexiaofeixianzhuhuishengdengdeng

duiyu2019年nianerjidu,我womenbupaichujingjihuixiangdui3月yuejingjishujuhuiluodekenengxing,因yinweiqueshi3月yuejingjishujuzhongbaohanliaohenduochaochangguiyinsu,但danshiwomenburenweijingjihuiercitandi,跌diepo1-2月yuedeshuiping

duiyucilunjingjizhouqi,我womenrenweishiruozhouqi,对duiyufusudeqiangduhechixushijianbuyiguodugaogu,主zhuyaoyuanyinzaiyuzhengfubuxiwangjingjiqiangfusu,那nayangbuliyujingjijiegoudiaozheng,同tongshibucunzaiguoqudedafujiagangganzhuti。但dantongyangxuyaozhuyi,对duijingjiguodubeiguanxianranyeyijingshiguoqushi

huobizhengcebianjibianhua

womenzaizhiqiandebaogao《央yangxingshoujilihuishifangqidaxinhao,主zhudongxing“宽kuansongbianjie”已yixian!》中zhongtichu,“保baochizhanluedingli”、“坚jianchinizhouqidiaojie”、删shanquliao“提tigaohuobizhengceqianzhanxing、灵linghuoxinghezhenduixing”、重zhongti“把bahaohuobigonggeizongzhamen”,均junbiaomingyangxinghuobizhengcezhudongxing“宽kuansongbianjie”已yixian

congjintiandeMLF减jianliangxuzuo,进jinyibuyanzhengliaowomendepanduan。市shichangciqianzhuliuyuqishiyangxingtongguojiangzhunduichonghuoMLF/TMLF等dengliangxuzuo,甚shenzhijiangxi(降jiangdinihuigouhuoMLF/TMLF利lilv)等dengfangshimibuliudongxingquekou,但danshijijieguoshiyangxingjianliangxuzuoMLF。

congzijinmiandewendingxinglaikan,2019年nian2月yuekaishi,资zijinmianbodongxingxianzhufangda,临linshixingdezijinjinzhangkaishichuxian,同tongyangbiaomingyangxinghuobizhengcetaidudebianjibianhua

womenrenwei,央yangxingkenengshixiquliao2016年niandejiaoxun,2016年nianyangxingtaiwanjieshuhuobikuansong,同tongshidiejiajianguanquewei,导daozhijinrongluanxiang、加jiagangganpinfa。当dangqianyanjianguanbingweixianzhufangsong,但danyangxingtongyangyouliyoukaishibianjishoulianhuobizhengce

womenrenwei,2019年nianyangxingshizhixingjinhuobidegailvrengranbugao,毕bijingjingjirengranchuyufusuchuqi,且qiequanqiujingjirengyouzhuduobuquedingxing。而erqie2013、2016年niandelingyigejiaoxunshi,如ruguoyangxingguokuaijinhuobi,可kenenghuidaozhijingjidexianzhuxiaxing

zongtishangjiang,我womenrenwei,央yangxingbianjibianhuayijingchuxian,货huobizhengcezhudongxingkuansongshidianyiguo,这zheshichaochushichangyuqidebufen;但danyangxingleisi2013年nianxiabannian、2016年niandi-2017年niandafujinhuobidekenengxingrengranjiaodi

债券市场qiehuandao“勤qinlaodexiaomifeng”模moshi

huaerjiejianwenyanjiuyuandenghaiqing、陈chenxituanduicong3月yue26日ribaogao《国guozhaishouyilvzhibipo“3”,债zhainiushigaijixu“守shouzhudaitu”,还huanshiyaobianwei“勤qinlaoxiaomifeng”呢ne?》开kaishi,连lianxuzhuanxiejieduanxingkankongzhaishibaogao《PMI半bannianhouzhonghuirongku线xianshang,经jingjiguaidianxinhao“意yiwai”早zaodao,货huobikuansongjiamapoqiexingjiangdi》、《降jiangzhunhuichengweizhaiquanshichangde“解jiefangjun”吗ma?》,从congfabaogaodangrikaishi,截jiezhi4月yue17日ri,10年nianguozhaihuoyuequan180027最zuigaoshangxingzhi3.42%,上shangxingfududa36BP。

jinqi,随suizhuozhaiquanshichangdechixudafudiaozheng,对duizhaishiquanmianbeiguandeguandianyekaishichuxian。但danwomenzhengtirenwei2019年nianzhaiquanshichangshouyilvshangxingyouding,下xiaxingyoudi

xiaxingyoudiyinggaiyijingchengweishichangpubiangongshi,在zaijingjiguaidian、社sherongguaidian、货huobizhengcebianjibianhuazhihou,国guozhaishouyilvzaicihuidao3.0%左zuoyoudekenengxingjihubucunzai,除chufeichuxianjingjiyanzhongchaoyuqideercitandi

shangxingyoudingzhuyaojiyuguozhaishouyilvdelishiqujian,以yijixiangpipeidehuobishichanglilvshuiping。尽jinguandangqianchuxianxindeshichangyuqicha——央yangxinghuobizhengcebianjibianhua,但danshizhiyaoyangxingbushizhixingdafujinhuobi,那namedangqiande债券收益率shijiyijingyinhanliaoxiangdangduodehuobishichanglilvshangxingyuqi

zhanzaidangqiandeshouyilvshuiping,长changduanzhaishidiaozhengfengxianyijingxianzhuxiajiang,而erduanduanjiyuzijinwendingdiweidejiagangganceluezeyouyidingdefengxian

duiyu2019年nianzhaiquanshichang,我womenrenweizhaiquanshichangzuifeimeidejieduanyiguo,2018年nianzhaiquanshichang“躺tangzhuozhuanqian”的deshidaijieshu,2019年nianzhaiquanshichanggengduodeshijiaoyixingjihui,债zhaiquanshichangdetouzizhexuyaocong“守shouzhudaitu”模moshiqiehuandao“勤qinlaodexiaomifeng”模moshi

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