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中金:即使剔除春节因素,3月经济数据仍全面超预期

2019-04-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自“中金宏观”,作者为易峘、袁越、梁红,本文观点不代表智通财经观点。2019年1季度实际GDP同比增速持平于2018年4季度的6.4%,估算名义GDP同比增速从9.1%降至7.8%。2019年1季度实际GDP同比增速高于市场预期的6.3%。季节性调整后,GDP环比折年增速从201….

benwenlaizi“中zhongjinhongguan”,作zuozheweiyihuan、袁yuanyue、梁lianghong,本benwenguandianbudaibiaozhitongcaijingguandian

2019年nian1季jidushijiGDP同tongbizengsuchipingyu2018年nian4季jidude6.4%,估gusuanmingyiGDP同tongbizengsucong9.1%降jiangzhi7.8%。2019年nian1季jidushijiGDP同tongbizengsugaoyushichangyuqide6.3%。季jijiexingdiaozhenghou,GDP环huanbizhenianzengsucong2018年nian4季jidude6.1%放fanghuanzhi5.7%。据jumuqiangongbudeshujugusuan,2019年nian1季jidumingyiGDP同tongbizengsucong2018年nian4季jidude9.1%下xiajiangzhi7.8%,同tongshi,估gusuandeGDP平pingjianzhishucong4季jidude2.6%下xiajiangzhi1.4%,从congshijiandianshangkan,1季jiduGDP平pingjianzhishudexiajiangsihubiCPIPPIdezoushi“滞zhihou”了liaoyigejidu

fenchanyelaikan,2019年nian1季jidudiyi、第disanchanyeshijiGDP同tongbizengsuyousuoxiajiang,但dandierchanyeshijiGDP同tongbizengsucong2018年nian4季jidude5.8%上shangshengzhi6.1%。名mingyicengmian,第diyi、第dier、第disanchanyedemingyiGDP同tongbizengsujunyousuofanghuan

3月yuegongyezengjiazhitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede5.3%跳tiaoshengzhi8.5%,即ji使shiquchuchunjiecuoweiyinsurengranchaoyuqi。如ruwomenzhiqianbaogaosuotishi,去quniandechunjiejiaowandaozhigeleishengchanhuodongzaiquniansanyuedujiaoweidimi,今jinniangongyeshengchantongbizai3月yuekenengmingxiantiaosheng,类leisidechunjieriqibiandongzai2015-2016年nianyefashengguo——2016年niangongyezengjiazhitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede5.4%大dafu“跳tiaosheng”至zhi6.8%。然raner,即ji使shiquchuzheyicixingyinsu,3月yuegongyetongbizengsurengrandachaoyuqi,3月yuegongyezengjiazhiyuehuanbizengsucong2月yuede0.43%加jiakuaizhi1.0%(非feinianhua)。分fenxingyelaikan,剔tichuchunjieyinsuhou,环huanbijiasujiaokuaidexingyebaokuoshebeizhizaoye、计jisuanji、通tongxinshebei、纺fangzhipindeng。同tongshi,3月yuefadianliangtongbizengsucong1-2月yuede2.9%回huishengzhi5.4%。

3月yueshehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongemingyitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede8.2%上shangshengzhi8.7%,主zhuyaoshouCPI上shangshengtuidong。剔tichujiageyinsulingshoutongbizengsujiao1-2月yuexiaofuxiajiang。去qunianchunjiewantizhen3月yuegongyezengsu,但danduixiaofeitongbizengsuyousuoyazhi,剔tichuzheyiyinsukan,3月yuexiaofeizengsujiaoqiang。分fenxingyeeryan,虽suiranchunjieyinsulueweibuli,一yixiexiaofeipinleizengchangzai3月yuerengmingxianjiasu,其qizhongbaokuojiadian、家jiaju、通tongxinshebei、化huazhuangpin、石shiyoudeng。一yijidukan,可kexuanxiaofeihuishengqushijiaoweimingxian。占zhanlingshou10%的deqichexiaofeizai3月yuerengzaiyadilingshouzengchang(部bufenshouzengzhishuixiadiaoyuqituolei),而erjiumuqiandegaopinshujukan,4月yueqichexiaofeiyouwangmingxianjiasu

1-3月yueleijimingyigudingzichantouzi(FAI)同tongbizengsushangshengzhi6.3%,与yushichangyuqiyizhi。3月yueyuebaomingyiFAI同tongbizengsucong1-2月yuede6.1%加jiakuaizhi6.3%。由youyuchangqideshujuzhiliangwenti,我womenrengranjianyitouzizhewuxuguodujieduyuebaomingyiFAI 数shuju。分fenbumenkan

► 房fangdichankaifatouzitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede11.6%攀panshengzhi12.0%,房fangdichanxinkaigongmianjitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede6%大dafushangshengzhi18.1%。房fangdichandaoweizijintongbizengsucongshangyuede2.1%上shangshengzhi13.0%。与yucitongshi,3月yuetudichengjiaozengsurengrandimi,但danshangpinfangchengjiaozengsuyousuohuisheng——土tudichengjiaomianjitongbizengsuweichiyu-31.5%的dediwei,对duibi1-2月yuede-34.1%,土tudichengjiaoezengsucong1-2月yuede-13.1%进jinyibudafuxiajiangzhi-40%。另lingyifangmian,商shangpinfangchengjiaoliangjichengjiaoetongbizengsufenbiecong1-2月yuede-3.6%和he2.8%回huishengzhi1.8%和he8.3%。

► 基jijiantouzitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede2.5%上shangshengzhi3.3%。3月yuegaopinshujuyexianshi,3月yuebanyuekaishijianzhuhuodonghuishengjiaoweimingxian

► 制zhizaoyetouzitongbizengsucong1-2月yuede5.9%下xiajiangzhi3.3%。制zhizaoyetouzizhihouqiyeyinglizengsu,所suoyiwomenyujizhizaoyetouzikenengxiabanniancaihuiqiwenhuisheng

ji使shitichuchunjiecuoweiyinsu,3月yue经济数据rengranquanmianchaoyuqi。往wangqiankan,政zhengcezuhexiang“宽kuancaizheng、稳wenhuobi”换huandang——1季jidumingyiGDP和heqiye(主zhuyingyewu)盈yinglizengsukenengshinianneididian。虽suiranruwomenzhiqiantishide,3月yuegexiangshengchanhuodongtongbikenengshouqunianchunjiejiaowantizhenermingxianzougao——但danmuqiankanlai,即ji使shitichuchunjieyinsu,3月yuetouzixiaofeiyuchukousanfangmianshujurengranmingxianchaoyuqi,高gaopinshujuyexianshi,3月yuexiabanyuexiaofei、地dichan、基jijiankaigongdengxiangguanzhibiaozouqiang

wangqiankan,我womenyuji4月yuexiaofeiyugongyeshengchanzengchangyouwangbaochizaijiaoqiangshuiping,而erqizhongxiaofeishujudechixuxingkenenggenghao(见jianwomenjinqiyouguanxiaofeixuqiuqiwenhuishengdefenxi)。1季jidujinrongtiaojianmingxiankuansonghou,名mingyizengchangyouwangqiwenhuisheng。但dantongshi,货huobikuansongdagailvbuzaijiama,但danyebuzhiyuzaishijiGDP 6.4%时shijiuzhuanxiang。通tongguojianshuijiangfeiweizhuyaozhuolidiandecaizhengzhengceduizongxuqiu(尤youqixiaofeixuqiuyuzhizaoyetouzi)的detizhenyouwangzhichizhihoudezongxuqiujinyibuqiwen。大daguimojianshuijiangfeiduitishengqiyeyinglizengsugengshiyouli竿ganjianyingdezuoyong

(编bianji:朱zhushulin)

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