您当前的位置:牛牛财经 > 股票

广发:一季度经济数据中的六个关键线索

2019-04-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“郭磊宏观茶座”。投资要点第一,房地产施工端韧性应该是带动GDP的关键线索之一,同期水泥产量超高也显示出建筑部门的活跃。第二,房地产销售面积亦较1-2月反弹,价格短周期触底信号也已出现,预计二季度将进一步确认销售周期底部。第三,….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“郭guoleihongguanchazuo”。

touziyaodian

diyi,房fangdichanshigongduanrenxingyinggaishidaidongGDP的deguanjian线xiansuozhiyi,同tongqishuinichanliangchaogaoyexianshichujianzhubumendehuoyue

dier,房fangdichanxiaoshoumianjiyijiao1-2月yuefandan,价jiageduanzhouqichudixinhaoyeyichuxian,预yujierjidujiangjinyibuquerenxiaoshouzhouqidibu

disan,基jijiantouzijinyibuhuisheng,且qiemuqiankandaodejijiantouziwanchengefanyingdeshishangyiqiyingxiang,从congyijidujijianleicaizhengzhichuzengsukan,后houxujijiantouzidagailvjinyibushangxing

disi,制zhizaoyetouzijixuxiajiangfuheyuqi。从congyiwangguilvkan,制zhizaoyetouziyibanzhihouyujianzhuyechanzhi3-4个gejidu,滞zhihouqiyejiaxinxinzhishu1-3个gejidu

diwu,名mingyiGDP增zengsujinyibukuaisuxiajiangzhi7.8%,考kaolvdaohouxujiagehejianshuiyingxiang,一yijiduyidagailvshimingyiGDP底di;但danshijizengchanghezhuyaojingjizhibiaoerjidurengyoufenhua

diliu,6.4%的deshijiGDP和heshangshengzhongdetongzhangzhongshudaozhihuobizhengcekongjianbianxiao,在zaijingji“衰shuai退tuihouqi”向xiang“复fusuqianqi”过guodudeguochengzhong,关guanzhuliudongxingyuqideruohuahedingjialuojidebianhua

zhengwen

fangdichanshigongduanrenxingyinggaishidaidongGDP的deguanjian线xiansuozhiyi,同tongqishuinichanliangchaogaoyexianshichujianzhubumendehuoyue。在zaiqianqibaogao《2019,经jingjirenxingcongheerlai》中zhong,我womentigongliaoyigejieshishijiao:这zhelunfangdichanzhouqixiangdangyucongpenggaihuobihuadaohuobizhengcewenzengchangzhijiandeguodu,施shigongcongjingyanguilvkanyuzijinkedexingguanlianjiaoda,而ershigongduanrenxingchaoyuqikenengshiweiguanshujurenxingdeyuanyinzhiyi。实shijichulaideshujuchubuzhengshiliaozheyidian。一yijidufangdichanshigongbiaoxianqiangjin,增zengsucong1-2月yuede6.8%进jinyibushangshengzhi8.2%。一yijidushuinichanliangzengsuwei9.4%,其qizhong3月yuewei22.2%。亦yikeyanzhengjianzhuyebumendehuoyue

fangdichanxiaoshoumianjiyijiao1-2月yuefandan,价jiageduanzhouqichudixinhaoyeyichuxian,预yujierjidujiangjinyibuquerenxiaoshouzhouqidibu。房fangdichanxiaoshoumianjileijizengsucong1-2月yuede-3.6%收shouzhaiwei-0.9%,隐yinhandedanyuezengsuyifandanzhi1.8%;同tongqixiaoshouezengsufandanzhi5.6%。销xiaoshouezengsubianhuagengweimingxianzailuojishangyinhanzhuojiagechudidexinhao。同tongqitongjijushujuxianshi,3月yueyiersan线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbizhangfujunjiaoshangyueyousuoshangsheng。尤youqizhidezhuyideshi,35个gesan线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.7%,二ershoufangjiagehuanbishangzhang0.5%,涨zhangfujunkuoda0.3个gedian。三san线xianjiagehuanbibiyier线xiangengqiangkenengshiyigezhongyaoxinxi,因yinweishichangduiyusan线xiandedanyouyizhidayuyier线xian。当dangran,3月yueshujuwangwangyoujijiexingraodong,但dancongjingyanguilvkan,价jiagexinhaojiangduixiaoshoudailaiyidingzhicheng。我womenweichiqianqipanduan,即jierjidujiangjinyibuquerendichanxiaoshouzhouqidibu

jijiantouzijinyibuhuisheng,且qiemuqiankandaodejijiantouziwanchengefanyingdeshishangyiqiyingxiang,从congyijidujijianleicaizhengzhichuzengsukan,后houxujijiantouzidagailvjinyibushangxing。基jijiantouzizengsu(不buhandianlikoujing)一yijiduzengchangwei4.4%,较jiao1-2月yuejinyibuxiaofushangsheng。由youyutouzitongjideshi“完wanchenge”,目muqiankandaodejijianwanchengefanyingdezhuyaoshishangyiqiyingxiang。一yijiducaizhengzhichujindushijinnianzuikuai,与yujijianxiangmuxiangguandecaizhengzhichuleibiehejizengsuwei25.8%,较jiao1-2月yuejinyibujiakuai1.4个gedian。其qizhongjiaotongyunshuzhichutongbizengchang47%,城chengxiangshequzhichuzengchang23%,农nonglinshuizhichu14.6%。预yujihouxujijiantouzidagailvjinyibushangsheng

zhizaoyetouzijixuxiajiangfuheyuqi。从congyiwangguilvkan,制zhizaoyetouziyibanzhihouyujianzhuyechanzhi3-4个gejidu,滞zhihouqiyejiaxinxinzhishu1-3个gejidu。制zhizaoyetouzileijizengsuwei4.6%,低diyu1-2月yuede5.9%。这zheyishujufuheyuqi,从congjingyanguilvkan,制zhizaoyetouziyibanzhihouyujianzhuyechanzhi3-4个gejidu,滞zhihouqiyejiaxinxinzhishu1-3个gejidu

mingyiGDP增zengsujinyibukuaisuxiajiangzhi7.8%,考kaolvdaohouxujiagehejianshuiyingxiang,一yijiduyidagailvshimingyiGDP底di;但danshijizengchanghezhuyaojingjizhibiaoerjidurengyoufenhua。一yijidumingyiGDP为wei7.8%,本benlunmingyiGDP在zaiqunianerjidu10.1%的dejichushang,陆luxuxiajiangzhi9.4%、9.2%、7.8%。考kaolvdaoerjidujiangbaohanjiageyinsuzhichenghejianshuixiaoyingyingxiang,一yijiduyiyoujiaodagailvshimingyiGDP底di。但danshijiGDP二erjidushangnanchuxianfandan,3月yuebijingbaohanzhuochunjiecuoweiyingxiang,估gujichukou、房fangdichankaigong、消xiaofei、工gongyezengjiazhidengshujuhouxurengkenengjiao3月yueyoubutongchengduhuicai。我womenzaiqianqibaogao《再zaicitishigongyejiagekenengdechaoyuqizhong》曾zengpanduan3月yueshujujiangquanmianfandan,但dan4-5月yuezehuiyoufenhua

6.4%的deshijiGDP和heshangshengzhongdetongzhangzhongshudaozhihuobizhengcekongjianbianxiao,在zaijingji“衰shuai退tuihouqi”向xiang“复fusuqianqi”过guodudeguochengzhong,关guanzhuliudongxingyuqideruohuahedingjialuojidebianhua。一yijidushijiGDP大dazhichuyushichangyuqideshangxian,经jingjikaijupingwen;同tongqiCPIzhongshuyoutaishengzhi2%以yishang,这zheyiweizhuohuobizhengcekenengerjiebianhua,即jidafangxiangbubiandeqingkuangxia,中zhongxingtezhengjinyibumingxian,增zengliangsherongzengsugengweishoulian。这zheyedatifuhejingjicongshuai退tuihouqixiangfusuqianqiguodudezhengcelujing。关guanzhuzheyiluojixialiudongxingtianhuabanxiaoyingheliudongxingyuqideruohua,权quanyishichangdingjiaguanjianbianliangjiangjinyibucongliudongxingzhuanyizhiyinglixiufuhetongzhangyuqi

hexinjiashefengxian:经jingjixiaxingyalichaoyuqi;价jiageshangxingfengxianchaoyuqi


收集整理:牛牛财经网
本文地址:https://stock.nncj.com/a/23986
共有条评论发表评论
验证码:
推荐阅读