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中信:经济开局良好,逆周期调节将继续发力

2019-04-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“CITICS宏观研究”,作者诸建芳、刘博阳。核心观点一季度GDP实际增速6.4%,超市场预期。经济中仍有部分指标走势偏弱,预计逆周期政策将继续发力,不用过度担心政策转向或收紧。我们预计经济在后面三个季度将继续小幅抬升,全年GDP增长将达….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“CITICS宏hongguanyanjiu”,作zuozhezhujianfang、刘liuboyang

hexinguandian

yijiduGDP实shijizengsu6.4%,超chaoshichangyuqi。经jingjizhongrengyoubufenzhibiaozoushipianruo,预yujinizhouqizhengcejiangjixufali,不buyongguodudanxinzhengcezhuanxianghuoshoujin。我womenyujijingjizaihoumiansangejidujiangjixuxiaofutaisheng,全quannianGDP增zengchangjiangdadao6.5%左zuoyou

shixiang

2019年nian4月yue17日ri,国guojiatongjijufabu2019年nianyijidujingjizengchangshuju。2019年nianyijiduGDP同tongbishijizengchang6.4%,持chipingquniansijidu,名mingyiGDP同tongbizengchang7.4%。3月yue,规guimoyishanggongyezengjiazhitongbishijizengchang6.5%,增zengsubitongnian1-2月yuejiakuai1.2个gebaifendian;1-3月yuefen,全quanguogudingzichantouzi(不buhannonghu)101871亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang6.3%,增zengsubi1-2月yuejiakuai0.2个gebaifendian;1-3月yuefen,社shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzonge97790亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang8.3%,增zengsubi1-2月yuefenjiakuai0.1个gebaifendian,比bishangniantongqihuiluo1.5个gebaifendian。1-3月yuefen,全quanguofangdichankaifatouzi23803亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang11.8%,增zengsubi1-2月yuefenjiakuai0.2个gebaifendian,比bishangniantongqijiakuai1.4个gebaifendian

zhaiyao

GDP:经jingjizengchangchaoyuqi,逆nizhouqidiaojiexiaoguoxianxian。2019年nianyijiduGDP同tongbizengchang6.4%,与yuquniansijiduchiping,略luechaoshichangyuqi。超chaoyuqibufenzhuyaojizhongyuxiaofeihefangdichantouzi。社shexiaodanyuetongbizengchang8.7%,其qizhongdichanxiangguanxiaofeiheshiyouzhipinxiaofeihuanbixianzhushangsheng;固gudingzichantouzizhong,一yijidufangdichantouzizengsuchaoguo1-2月yue0.2个gebaifendian。基jijiantouzijixuwenbushangxing

gongye:逆nizhouqizhengcetuodi,工gongyezengjiazhihuishengxianzhu。在zaichunjiecuowei、财caizhengzhengcenizhouqidiaojie、地dichanzhubuhuinuandengyinsuzuoyongxia,一yijidugongyezengjiazhitongbizengchang6.5%,其qizhong3月yuegongyezengjiazhizengchang8.5%,较jiao1-2月yuejiakuai3.2个gebaifendian。结jiegoushang,3月yuecaikuangye、制zhizaoye、电dianli、燃ranqijishuishengchangongyingyejunhuanbihuishengxianzhu(分fenbiewei4.3、3.4、0.9个gebaifendian),40/41个gexingyejunbaochitongbizengchang,且qiegaojishuchanyezengjiazhijiao1-2月yuederuogongxianyouxianzhufandan(1-3月yuetongbizengchang7.8%),而erqichezhizaoyedegongyezengjiazhiyeyou1-2月yuedefugongxiankaishihuizheng(3月yuewei2.6%),均junbangzhugongyeqiwenhuisheng。我womenrenweigongyezengjiazhidexianghaotixianliaoqianyijieduannizhouqidezhengcezhengzaiqizuoyong

touzi:地dichanhejijianzhuligudingzichantouzihuinuan,但danzhizaoyetouzirengzaidiweiyunxing。固gudingzichantouziyijiduzengsuhuanbihuisheng0.2个gebaifendianzhi6.3%。其qizhong,房fangdichankaifatouziyijiduzengsuda11.8%,较jiao1-2月yuejixujiakuai;基jijiantouzizengchang4.4%,环huanbijiao1-2月yueyijiakuai1.9个gebaifendian;但danzhizaoyetouzizengsujinwei4.6%,较jiao1-2月yuehuanbixujiang1.3个gebaifendian。整zhengtilaikan,一yijidudifangzhuanxiangzhaifaxingjiada,地dichanchengjiaoyousuofandan,整zhengtitouzishoucaizhengnizhouqizhengcejidichanjieduanxinghuinuandeyingxiangjiaoweixianzhu,但danshouqiyeyinglichixushousuojimaoyimocadebuquedingxingdeyingxiang,与yushitijingjihuinuangengweijinmidezhizaoyetouzizengsurengzaidiwei,且qieminjiantouziyihuanbixiajiang1.1个gebaifendianzhi6.4%。向xianghoukan,这zheyijiegouhuojiangjixuweichiyigejidu,预yuji“基jijiansheng、地dichanwen、制zhizaoyezhubuchudi”将jiangchengweierjidudegudingzichantouzijiegoutezheng

xiaofei:价jiageyinsuhexiaofeiyuqigaishandaidongmingyixiaofeizengsuhuanbihuisheng。3月yuefenshehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongetongbizengchang8.7%(实shijizengchangwei6.7%,前qianzhi8.2%,去quniantongqi10.1%),限xianeyishangshangpinlingshouzongetongbizengsuwei5%(前qianzhi3.2%,去quniantongqi8.9%)。整zhengtixiaofeirengranruoyuquniantongqi,但danhuanbizengsugaishanjiaoweimingxian。3月yueCPIhePPIhuanbihuisheng0.8和he0.3个gebaifendian,价jiageyinsushituidongshexiaomingyizengchanghuishengdezhuyaoyuanyin。同tongshishoudaojuminxiaofeiyuqigaishanhejiuyezhuangkuanghaozhuandeyingxiang,大dabufenshangpinxiaofeizengsuchuxianhuanbihuisheng,尤youqidichanxiangguanshangpinxiaofeizengchangxianzhu。此ciwai,3月yueqichexiaofeidetongbidiefuxiaofukuodazhi-4.4%,考kaolvdaojishuxiaoyinghexiaofeixuqiudegaishan,预yujiqichexiaofeizengsuzaixiabannianzhidieqiwen,整zhengtixiaofeirengranyouzhicheng

zhengwen

GDP:经jingjizengchangchaoyuqi,逆nizhouqidiaojiexiaoguoxianxian

GDP增zengsuyuquniansijiduchiping,经jingjichubuqiwen,消xiaofeihedichantouzishizhuyaozhicheng。2019年nianyijiduGDP同tongbizengchang6.4%,与yuquniansijiduchiping,略luechaoshichangyuqi。从congjiegoushangkan,超chaoyuqibufenzhuyaojizhongyuxiaofeihefangdichantouzi。其qizhong,社shexiaodanyuetongbizengchang8.7%,其qizhongdichanxiangguanxiaofeiheshiyouzhipinxiaofeiyuehuanbishangshengxianzhu;固gudingzichantouzizhong,一yijidufangdichantouzizengsuzai1-2月yuedegaozengsujichushangjinyibujiakuai0.2个gebaifendian。基jijiantouzijixuwenbushangxing。而erjinchukoufangmian,一yijidujingchukouyeduiGDP增zengsuyousuogongxian。受shouguoneishengchanxuqiupianruoyijizhongmeimaoyizhanhujiaguanshuideyingxiang,当dangjimaoyichaexianzhuzoukuo,由youquniantongqide448.5亿yi美元shangshengzhi764.6亿yimeiyuan,同tongbizengsu70.5%,为wei2015年nianerjiduyilaidezuigaozengsu,也yebangzhutuishengliaoGDP当dangjidezengsushuiping

hongguanzhengcenizhouqidiaojiexiaoguoxianzhu,后houxuzhengcelidujiangbaochiwending。去qunianxiabannianhongguanzhengcekaishijijituodiwenzengchang,一yijidujingjizengchangshujuyijingyousuoxianxian,政zhengceshizhijijinweisheng。财caizhengzhengcefangmian,今jinnianyijidudifangzhuanxiangzhaitizaofaxingyouxiaozhichengjijiantouziwenbushangxing;货huobizhengcefangmian,去quniansijidu,社sherongzengsukaishiqiwen,今jinnianyijiduzhongshuyousuotaisheng,表biaoneixindaiguimotongbigaozeng,民minyingxiaoweiqiyexindaizengsubaochigaowei,实shitijingjiliudongxingchongyuweiwenzengchangtigongyoulibaozhang。我womenrenwei,虽suiranjingjizengsuzaiyijiduluechaoyuqi,表biaoxianchuqiwendeshitou,但danjingjizengchangneishengbufenliruzhizaoyetouzi、民minjiantouzidengrengcunzaixiaxingyali,名mingyiGDP下xiaxingdaidongqiyeyinglichixuchengya,因yincihongguanzhengcenizhouqidiaojiedelidujiangbuhuishousuo,保baochijiezoupingwenrengshibiyaoxuanze,不bubiduizhengceshoujinyouguoduodanyou

quannianjingjizengchangwendingtaishidatidedaoqueren,GDP增zengchang6.5%左zuoyou。一yijidulaikan,虽suiranjibenmianyouyuchunjiecuoweidengyuanyinbiaoxiandimi,但dan3月yuequanmianhuinuantixianchujingjiwenzengchangmubiaodeshixian。向xianghoukan,考kaolvdaohongguanzhengceyujijiangchixujiji,经jingjineishengdongnengyejianghuizhujianxiufu,经jingjizengsujiangyoukenengdadaozhengce6.0%-6.5%的deshangxianfujin。我womenyujijingjijiangzaihousangejidujixuxiaofutaisheng,全quannianzengsujiangdadao6.5%左zuoyou

gongye:增zengjiazhihuishengxianzhu,高gaojishuchanyezengsugongxiantisheng

“六liuwen”初chujianchengxiao,工gongyezengjiazhihuishengxianzhu。在zaichunjiecuowei、财caizhengzhengcenizhouqidiaojie、地dichanzhubuhuinuandengyinsuzuoyongxia,一yijidugongyezengjiazhitongbizengchang6.5%,其qizhong3月yuegongyezengjiazhizengchang8.5%,较jiao1-2月yuejiakuai3.2个gebaifendian。3月yueshuinichanliang、发fadianliangdenggaopinzhibiaojunchuzaijiaohaoshuiping,出chukouzengsuhuanbijiasu。而erbansuijijianhedichantouzidexuqiu,叠diejiaPPI的deduanqiqiwen,工gongyezengjiazhizhengtibiaoxianhaoyuyuqi。我womenrenweigongyezengjiazhidexianghaotixianliaoqianyijieduannizhouqidezhengcezhengzaiqizuoyong

fenxingyeguancha,3月yue,采caikuangyetongbizengsushangsheng4.6%(环huanbishangsheng4.3个gebaifendian),制zhizaoyetongbishangsheng9.0%(环huanbishangsheng3.4个gebaifendian),电dianli、燃ranqijishuishengchangongyingyetongbishangsheng7.7%(环huanbishangsheng0.9个gebaifendian),均junyouxianzhuxiufu,其qizhong41个gexingyezhong40个gexingyejunbaochitongbizengchang,且qiegaojishuchanyezengjiazhijiao1-2月yuederuogongxianyouxianzhufandan(1-3月yuetongbizengchang7.8%),新xindongnengzaijinqihuifujiaoweixianzhu。而ercongzhongdianzhizaoyezixingyekan,汽qichezhizaoyedegongyezengjiazhiyou1-2月yuedefugongxiankaishixiufu(3月yuewei2.6%),为weijinwugeyueyilaishoucihuizheng;计jisuanji、通tongxinheqitadianzishebeizhizaoyeyijibenhuishengzhiqunianmodezengsushuiping(达da10.2%,去qunian12月yuewei10.5%),而eryujijianxiangguanzhizaoyezengjiazhizengsuhuanbigaishangengweimingxian:铁tielu、船chuanbo、航hangkonghangtianheqitayunshushebeizhizaoye、电dianqijixieheqicaizhizaoye、专zhuanyongshebeizhizaoye、通tongyongshebeizhizaoyedengxingyejunxianzhuhuisheng(分fenbiehuanbishangsheng5.7、7.2、6.4和he9.7个gebaifendian),均junbangzhugongyeqiwenhuisheng。4月yueyilai,经jingjijixubaochipingwenyunxing,贸maoyibuquedingxingyejinyibuyousuoxiaoruo,向xianghoukan,我womendui4月yuedegongyebiaoxianyiranbaochijiaoweileguandepanduan,但dankaolvdao3月yuerengshouchunjiecuoweideyingxiangdengyinsu,增zengsushanghuoyouhuanbixiaofuxiajiang

▌ 地dichanhejijianzhuligudingzichantouzihuinuan,但danzhizaoyetouzirengzaidiweiyunxing

gudingzichantouzifangmian,2019年nian1-3月yuequanguogudingzichantouzi(不buhannonghu)增zengchang6.3%(前qianzhi6.1%,去quniantongqi7.7%),继jixuxiaofugaishan,为wei2018年nian5月yueyilaixingao;但danminjiangudingzichantouzizengsurengyouxiaofufanghuan,为wei6.4%,环huanbixiajiang1.1个gebaifendian。分fensandaxingyelaikan,其qizhong,受shouqiyeyinglijianshao、外waibuxuqiujianruo、及jibufenxingyejingqizhouqi(如ruqichedeng)的degongtongyingxiang,制zhizaoyetouzirengzaifanghuan,1-3月yueleijizengsujiao1-2月yuejixuyousuoxiajiang,仅jinwei4.6%(环huanbixiajiang1.3个gebaifendian),为weijinqijingjijibenmiandebaoruodian;而ershouhuobiyucaizhengzhengcenizhouqidiaojiedechixuzuoyong,基jichusheshijianshetouziyeyilianxu6个geyuechenghuanbigaishan,1-3月yueleijitongbizengsuwei4.4%,环huanbishangsheng1.9个gebaifendian;在zaidichanfangmian,房fangdichankaifatouzietongbizengsuzehuanbijixushangxing0.2个gebaifendianzhi11.8%,超chaochushichangyuqi。向xianghoukan,伴bansuizhuosherongdeqiwenhuisheng,货huobizhengcehecaizhengzhengcedegongtongzuoyongyujihuanjiangzaiweilai1-2个gejiduchixuxianxian,目muqiandezheyitouzijiegouhuojiangjixuweichiyigejidu,而er“基jijiansheng、地dichanwen、制zhizaoyezhubuchudi”料liaojiangchengweierjidudegudingzichantouzijiegoutezheng,并bingbangzhugudingzichantouzizengsubaochichixupingwen

qizhong,在zaifangdichanxingyecengmian,数shujuxianshitouzigouchengzhongdejiegouqiehuanzhengzaijiasutixian,体tixianzaijianantouzijiasu、土tudigouzhijianshaoyijixiaoshouhejungongdeweichidiwei。一yijidu,房fangdichankaifatouzileijitongbizengsuwei11.8%,较jiaoqianzhijixujiakuai,而ertudigouzhimianjihetudichengjiaojiakuanrengchuzaidafuxiajiangdequjian(一yijidufenbiexiajiang33.1%和he27.0%),体tixianchuliaojianantouzijiasudejiegouxingbianhua。而ercongfangwukaigongmianjijijungongmianjidengzhibiaoshangkan,1-3月yue,房fangdichanxinkaigongmianjizengchang11.9%,环huanbijiakuai5.9个gebaifendian,同tongshijungongmianjileijizengsuhuanbijiangfuyeshouzhai1.1个gebaifendianzhi-10.8%。尽jinguanliangzhejunyousuoxiufu,但danzengsu“剪jiandaocha”重zhonghuifangdaqujian,我womenrenweizheyixianxianghuobukechixu,两liangzhedezengsuchajiangzaixiabannianyouxianzhushouzhai。在zaishangpinxiaoshoumianjihexiaoshouefangmian,一yijiduleijitongbizengsufenbiewei5.6%和he-0.9%,虽suijiao1-2月yuehuanbixiaofugaishan,但danrengchuyubenlundichanzhouqidediwei。综zonghekan,近jinqidichanqiyejinqizijinmianyaliyousuohuanjie,且qiegaopinkanfangshiyouxiaofuhuinuan,但dan“开kaigong-竣jungong”的dezhouqihuanweisuozhai,我womenduiduanqidichanshichangdetouzizengsudechixugaoweibaochijinshen。我womenweichiqianxupanduan,即jifangdichanjungongxiabannianjiangxianzhutisheng,而ertudigouzhifeiyujiananfeiyongzhantouzibizhongdeqiehuanhuanjiangchixu,推tuishengquanniandichantouzizengsuzai5%左zuoyou,我womenduidichanzaixiabanniandebiaoxianbiaoshixiangduileguan

▌  消xiaofei:价jiageyinsuhexiaofeiyuqigaishandaidongmingyixiaofeizengsuhuanbihuisheng

jiageyinsushidaidong3月yueshexiaozengsuhuanbihuishengdezhongyaoyuanyin。2019年nianyijidu,社shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongetongbimingyizengchang8.3%(实shijizengchang6.9%),较jiaoquniantongqihuiluo1.5个gebaifendian。其qizhong,3月yuefenshehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongetongbizengchang8.7%(实shijizengchangwei6.7%,前qianzhiwei8.2%,去quniantongqiwei10.1%),限xianeyishangshangpinlingshouzongetongbizengsuwei5%(前qianzhiwei3.2%,去quniantongqiwei8.9%)。整zhengtixiaofeirengranruoyuquniantongqi,但danhuanbizengsugaishanjiaoweimingxian。3月yueCPI和hePPI环huanbihuisheng0.8和he0.3个gebaifendian,因yincijiageyinsushituidongshexiaomingyizengchanghuishengdezhuyaoyuanyin

juminxiaofeiyuqigaishandaidongdabufenshangpinxiaofeizengsuchuxianhuanbigaishan。年nianchuyilaishoudaojingjiqiwendengjijiyuqideyingxiang,居juminxiaofeixuqiuchuxianhuanbigaishan。3月yuejinrongshujuxianshijuminduandaihezhongchangqidaikuanjunchuxianxianzhuzengchang,因yinciyidingchengduyedaidongliaoxiaofeidezengchang。中zhonghuaquanguoshangyexinxizhongxinpiluquanguo50家jiazhongdiandaxinglingshouqiye3月yuelingshouetongbizengsuwei2.5%,环huanbihuisheng3.9个gebaifendian。限xianeyishangshangpinlingshouzhongyanjiutongbizengsu9.5%(环huanbihuisheng4.9个gebaifendian,下xiatong)、饮yinliaotongbizengsu12.1%(4.1个gebaifendian),纺fangzhifuzhuang6.6%(4.8个gebaifendian)、化huazhuangpintongbizengsu14.4%(5.5个gebaifendian)、石shiyouzhipin(占zhanbiyuewei14%)环huanbihuisheng4.6个gebaifendianzhi7.1%。尤youqiduifangdichanshichanghezibenshichangdeleguanyuqituidongliao3月yuedichanxiangguanxiaofeidezengchang。其qizhongzhanbijiaodadejiadianxiaofeitongbizengsuhuisheng11.9个gebaifendianzhi15.2%。

ciwai,需xuyaoguanzhudeshizaizongtixiaofeizhongzhanbizuigaodeqiche(占zhanbiyuewei29%)消xiaofei3月yuedetongbidiefuxiaofukuoda1.6个gebaifendianzhi-4.4%。尽jinguanshoudaojiadianheqitaxiaofeipinzengsuhuanbigaishandetizhen,但danyouyuqichezhanbijiaoda,对duizhengtixianeyishangshangpinlingshouzengsudeyingxiangrengranshifenxianzhu,后houxuqichexiaofeidezoushiduizhengtishexiaozengsushifenzhongyao。考kaolvdaojishuxiaoyinghexiangguandexiaofeigulizhengcedetuijin,预yujiqichexiaofeizengsuzaixiabannianzhidieqiwen,整zhengtixiaofeirengranyouzhicheng。另lingwaiyijidudiaochashiyelvhuanbixiajiang0.1个gebaifendian,就jiuyeqingkuangdehaozhuankenengyidingchengduyezhichengliaoxiaofeizengsudehuanbigaishan

ciwai,一yijiduquanguowangshanglingshoue22379亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang15.3%(去quniantongqiwei35.4%)。其qizhong,实shiwushangpinwangshanglingshoue17772亿yiyuan,增zengchang21.0%,较jiaoquniantongqihuiluo13.4个gebaifendian,高gaojishujiyijiduzongtixuqiutongbipianruoshizhuyaoyuanyin

yijidujuminshijikezhipeishouruzengsutongbihuisheng。2019年nianyijidu,全quanguojuminrenjunkezhipeishouru8493元yuan,比bishangniantongqimingyizengchang8.7%(实shijizengsuwei6.8%)。其qizhong,城chengzhenjuminrenjunkezhipeishouru11633元yuan,增zengchang7.9%(实shijizengsu5.9%);农nongcunjuminrenjunkezhipeishouru4600元yuan,增zengchang8.8%(实shijizengsu6.9%)。其qizhongchengzhenjuminkezhipeishourutongbizengsuhuishengfudugaoyunongcunjumin

yijidushijijuminxiaofeizhichuzengsubaochiwending,其qizhongchengzhenjuminxiaofeizhichuzengchanghaoyunongcunjumin。一yijidu,全quanguojuminrenjunxiaofeizhichu5538元yuan,比bishangniantongqimingyizengchang7.3%,增zengsujiaoqunianhuiluo0.3个gebaifendian(实shijizengchang5.4%)。其qizhong,城chengzhenjuminrenjunxiaofeizhichu7160元yuan,增zengchang6.1%(实shijizengchang4.1%);农nongcunjuminrenjunxiaofeizhichu3525元yuan,增zengchang8.7%(实shijizengchang6.8%)。从congshijizengsulaishuo,全quanguojuminrenjunxiaofeizhichushijizengsubaochiwending,城chengzhenjuminzhichuzengsujiaoquniantongqihuisheng0.7个gebaifendian,农nongcunjuminzhichuzengsujiaoquniantongqixiadie2个gebaifendian。分fenxiaofeileibielaikan,除chujiaoyuwenhuayulezhichuzengsuxianzhutisheng,大dabufenleibiexiaofeizhichuzengsujunchuxianbutongchengdudehuiluo

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