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美国低通胀之谜答案揭晓:一切只是纸上繁荣

2019-03-15     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文由香港资深投资人“江恩小龙刘君明”供稿,文中观点不代表智通财经观点。到了今年7月就将是美国史上最长经济增长期,即超过1991年3月至2001年3月,长达120个月,经历了40季的纪录期间。美联储由2012年1月明确设定的2%通胀目标,之后平均通胀率一直处于1.4….

benwenyouxianggangzishentouziren“江jiangenxiaolongliujunming”供gong稿gao,文wenzhongguandianbudaibiaozhitongcaijingguandian

daoliaojinnian7月yuejiujiangshimeiguoshishangzuichangjingjizengchangqi,即jichaoguo1991年nian3月yuezhi2001年nian3月yue,长changda120个geyue,经jingliliao40季jidejiluqijian美联储you2012年nian1月yuemingqueshedingde2%通tongzhangmubiao,之zhihoupingjuntongzhanglvyizhichuyu1.4%,即ji使shikouchubodongjiaodadeshipinhenengyuanjiage,核hexintongzhangyejinyou1.6%。换huanyanzhi,美meilianchu7年nianlaiyeweidabiao。但dandaoliao2017年nian3月yuehou,失shiyelvdiepo4.5%,即jikaishitaru“全quanminjiuye”水shuiping,但danqihexintongzhangyezhibuguoshengzhipingjun1.7%。到daodimeiguodejingjifanrongshiruhegoucheng?

keyicankaomeiguodelaodongcanyulv(labor force participation rate),按anzhaojingjixueshangdedingyilaijiang,劳laodongrenkoushibaokuojiuyerenkoujishiyerenkou。简jianyanzhi,劳laodongrenkoushizhiyounenglijiyuanyitourulaodongshichangderen。而ermeiguodelaodongcanyulv(labor force participation rate),读duzhekeyicankaoshangtu。基jibenshangzi2009年nianzhijin,仍rengchuyuyigexiangduidideshuipinghengxing。根genjushujuxianshi,在zaidishiyelvdetongshi,美meiguolaodongcanyulvyijinyibuxiajiang,总zongjiuyecanyurenkoujianshaoliao42.9万wan

meiguodelaodongrenkoudejisuanfangfashiruguoyigerenyiduanshijianmeiyougongzuojiuhuibeitongjidangjuhuaru“无wujiuyeyiyuan”而ertichulaodongrenkouzhinei。同tongshizaimeiguorengyouhenduorengongzuozhishijianzhihebuchongfenjiuye,不bushuyuquanzhigongzuo。在zai2018年nian6月yuefeilaodongrenkoushichangderenshuzaizeng17万wanzhi9591.5万wan,创chuanglishixingao

zai2009年nianchu,美meiguoshiyelvpaihuaizai10%左zuoyou,当dangshimeiguoyou1161万wanshiyerenkouyu8102万wanfeilaodonglirenkou;到daoliaojinnian,失shiyerenkoujianzhi686万wan,但danfeilaodonglirenkouquezengzhi9498万wan。而ershiyelvdejisuanfangfashishiyelv=失shiyerenkou/劳laodongrenkou,那naxiechangqishiyerenkouzaibubeitongjizaishiyerenkouzhizhong,同tongshilaodongrenkouyoubutingjianshao,失shiyelvziranjiubutingxiajiangliao

ruguoshangmianfenxichengli,美meiguodequanminjiuyezhishishuxueyouxi。难nanyijieshiweihe“全quanminjiuye”水shuipingxia,核hexintongzhangyezhibuguoshengzhi1.7%。

naweishime美股jiejieshangsheng?

meiguoweiliaoweichijingjidonglijichuangzaojiuyejihui,只zhishitongguobutingfazhaijihuigouquchuangzaofanrongdejiaxiang。但danzhezai2018年nianyekaishiyoushuailuodeshitou,所suoyizaitelangpuzongtongdeshuishougaigejihuatongguohou,美meiguoqiyedehaiwaizijinhuiliuzhimeiguo,为weihuigougufentigong“水shuiyuan”。令linggupiaohuigoushuliangdadaoliaoxindejilu,预yujijinniangupiaohuigoujiangchaoguo1万wan亿yimeiyuan,而ermeiguogongsizhengzai使shiyongjielaidezijinyifeichanggaodeguzhigoumaizijidegupiao

weihetelangpuzaimeiguhuiluohoubutingpengjimeilianchudesuobiaozhengce,原yuanyinshimeiguozhengzaifengkuang发行债券huigouzijigongsidegupiao,一yidanjiaxijisuobiaochengliaoyuqi,将jianglingdaodaliangqiyezijinlianchuxianwenti,所suoyikeyikanchumeiguojingjibingmeiyouxiangxiangzhongdehao


jutukejian,上shangzhengzhishujinrizoushirengranqiangshi,但danri线xiantuzhongchuxianyigexiaoshuangdingdexingtai,如ruguoweilaiduanshijianzhongweinengsheng穿chuan3129的deguankou,则zeyoujihuichuxianyigelixingjijiankangdehuidiao,支zhichiweikeguanzhu2800/2700点dian。这zheling港股youyigehuidiaozhi28100/27800左zuoyoudejihui。请qingduzheliuyi3月yue15日ri/18日ridejiangenzhuanshiri

mianzeshengming:智zhitongcaijingwangfabuciwenmudezaiyuchuandigengduoxinxi,不budaibiaobenwangdeguandianhelichang。文wenzhangneirongjingongcankao,投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianzidan

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