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一位投资者的自白:我为何在这时买入拼多多(PDD.US)?

2019-03-15     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:拼多多(PDD.US)这头电商雄狮正在觉醒。智通财经APP了解到,3月13日,美股上市公司拼多多发布2018年Q4以及全年业绩报告,Q4收入56.54亿元,高于市场预期,同比增长379%,毛利42.3亿元,同比增长425%,全年收入131.2亿元,同比增长652.3%,全年毛利102.15亿….

pinduoduo(PDD.US)这zhetoudianshangxiongshizhengzaijuexing

zhitongcaijingAPP了liaojiedao,3月yue13日ri美股shangshigongsipinduoduofabu2018年nianQ4以yijiquannianyejibaogao,Q4收shouru56.54亿yiyuan,高gaoyushichangyuqi,同tongbizengchang379%,毛maoli42.3亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang425%,全quannianshouru131.2亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang652.3%,全quannianmaoli102.15亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchangda900%。

pinduoduodechengchangsuduxunmeng,2018年nian,全quanguowangshanglingshouzongetongbizengchang23.9%,该gaigongsiquannianshouruzengsushixingyede26倍bei,同tongnianjingdongdeshourujimaolifenbiezengchang27.5%和he29.8%,仅jinluegaoyuxingyeshuiping,相xiangdangyupinduoduoduiyingchengchangsudude1/24及ji1/30。虽suiranpinduoduoyejigaosuchengchang,但danjiuyinglieryan,目muqianrengshikuisunde

2018年niandisijidu,以yifeimeiguotongyonghuijizhunzexia,拼pinduoduoguishuyugudongjingkuisunwei18.96亿yiyuan,鉴jianyukuisunqingkuang,投touzizhebingweigeigaigongsidegaochengchangtoushangyipiao,发fabuyejihou,该gaigongsigujiadangtiandieliao17.45%。实shijishang,大dabufenshichangtouzizhekandaogengduodeshiyejidebiaomian,而erzhuanyedejigoutouzizhegengduokandaoweilai

pinduoduofabu2018年niancaibaoqianhou,有youduojiaquanshangtouxingjigougeiyuqimairupingji,其qizhongruiyinji摩根士丹利geidemubiaojiada37美元,相xiangjiaoyu13日ridiehoujiaweiyou47.4%的dezhangfukongjian

gedazhuanyequanshangtouxingfenfenkanhaopinduoduo,说shuominggaigongsiqueshiyouguoyingdeshili,那name,我womenruhekandaipinduoduocicideyeji,未weilaidefazhanjihuizaina

yi、高gaochengchangdechixuxing

yaotouxipinduoduodetouzijihui,一yibandetouzifangfalunshi,要yaokandaogaigongsiweilaidechengchangjihuiyijiyinglijihui

jiuchengchangjihuieryan,拼pinduoduoguoqushourujimaolizengsugaosuchengchang,这zheshitouzizhekeyikandedaode,那naweilainengfoubaochichixuxinggaochengchangne?这zhejiuyaoxizhifenxiyingxianggaigongsishourudegegeyaosutiaojian,是shifougeililiao

(一yi)、要yaosuyi:GMV

shouxiantanGMV,在zaidianshanglingyu,收shourushiGMV货huobihuafeichangzhongyaodezhibiao,智zhitongcaijingAPP了liaojiedao,拼pinduoduoguoqu12个geyueGMV达da4716亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchangda234%。从congjidukan,该gaigongsiGMV呈chengzhishujizengchang,2017年nian3月yuedenianGMV仅jinwei209亿yiyuan,2018年nianzengchangliao21.6倍bei,季jidufuhezengchanglvda56%。

2018年nianjingdongdeGMV为wei1.7万wan亿yiyuan,同tongbijinzengchang30.8%,远yuanyuanluohouyupinduoduodezengsu,虽suiranjingdongGMV是shipinduoduode3.6倍bei,但danyipinduoduoGMV的dezengchangsudu,追zhuiganshangjingdonghuanshikeyiqidaide,且qiepinduoduozaipinpaiduanfali,京jingdonghuandejuansiwei。问wentishi,拼pinduoduodeGMV如ruhebaochi

(二er)、要yaosuer:用yonghushujujizhanxing

dianshangpingtaizhuyaohuanshiyaokanyonghushujuyijipingtaitigongdechanpinshuju,这zheshiGMV成chengchangdeyuanquan,以yiyonghushujulaishuo,拼pinduoduoyijingchaoyuejingdong,成chengweializhihouzhongguodierdadianshangpingtai。2018年nian,拼pinduoduoyouhuoyueyonghu4.185亿yihu,超chaoguojingdong3.05亿yidenianduhuoyueyonghu(阿aliwei6.36亿yihu),同tongbizengchang71%。拼pinduoduoshangshishidajiaduzaishuosan亿yirenduzaiyong,如rujinyaogaikouchengsi亿yirenliao

pinduoduobujinnianduhuoyueyonghudafuzengjia,而erqiemeigehuoyueyonghuniandufufeiyezaidafushangsheng,2018年nianmeigehuoyueyonghuniandufufei1126.9元yuan,同tongbizengchang95%,比binianduhuoyueyonghuzengchanggaochu24个gebaifendian,且qieconglishijidukan,该gaishujuzengchangfuduyeyuanchaoguoliaonianduhuoyueyonghudezengchangshuiping。2018年niangaigongsideDAUs为wei2.726亿yihu,同tongbizengchang93%,基jibenhehuoyueyonghuniandufufeizengchangshuipingyizhi

ciwai,拼pinduoduoderenjunniandingdanshucongyinianqiandeyue18个gedingdanzengchangdao2018年niande27个gedingdan,在zainianhuoyuemaijiashujirenjunniandingdanshugongtongzengchangdequdongxia,2018年nianpinduoduodingdanliangzengchangdao111亿yidan,同tongbizengjia43亿yidan,日rijundingdanshucong1180万wandanzengchangdao3040万wandan

(三san)、要yaosusan:物wumeijialiandechanpinfuwu

weihepinduoduonenggoushixianhuoyueyonghushuju、每meigehuoyueyonghufufeiyijidingdanshuliangdedafuzengchangne?一yifangmianshimubiaoshichangdingwei,定dingweiyuzhongdiduandexiaofeiqunti,另lingyifangmiandeshichanpinzhujianfengfujiyonghugouwutiyandedaoxianzhutisheng

pinduoduoyidijiachuming,提tigongwumeijialiandeshangpin,主zhuyaoyonghuquntizaisan线xianjiyixiadechengshi。2018年nianxiabannianyilai,拼pinduoduodeSKU正zhengzaijisufengfu,并bingyikao“更gengdijiage”在zaiduoxiangbiaopinzhongtuoyingerchu。据juxiangguanshuju,2018年nianshuangshiyizhijinde4个geyueshijianli,拼pinduoduopingtaiyijingshouchuchaoguo100万wanbuzuixinkuaniPhone,在zaijiadian、3C等dengpinpaibiaopinshangyeweichizhuogaosuzengchangtaishi

gaigongsijiadaAI技jishuyijituijiansuanfadetouru,提tigaogouwuzhetiyanyijigouwulequ。比biruxiaofeizhexiangyaoxiangguandetuijian,同tongshixiangshoufaxianyufenxiangdelequ,同tongshijianliliaoqianrenqianmiandedianshang,利liyongfenbushiquyuwangluoheshenduxuexiweiyonghujinxinggexinghuatuijian

shijishang,在zaichanpingongyingduan,拼pinduoduojinqizhongdianzuodeliangjianshi,一yishipinpaijihua,二ershinongchanpinshangxingjihua

2018年nian8月yue,拼pinduoduotuichuliao“品pinpaiguan”,在zaiduanshijianneijifazhandao700多duogepinpai,包baokuoguojiheguoneipinpai,同tongshi,拼pinduoduoshang线xianliao“电dianqicheng”,自zi2018年nian8月yueyilai,拼pinduoduotongguo“品pinpaiguan”和he“电dianqicheng”销xiaoshouleijichaoguo6亿yijianpinpaichanpin。2018年nian12月yue,拼pinduoduotuichuliao“新xinpinpaijihua”,在zaidiyijieduan,拼pinduoduoconglaizigegexingyede1000多duofenshenqingzhongtiaoxuanchuliao20家jiashengchanhezuohuoban,包baokuozhizhipin、厨chujujidianzichanpindengpinpai

yucitongshi,2018年nian,拼pinduoduonulidajijiamaoshangpin,侵qinquantousudechanpinshuliangjianshaoliaoyue150倍bei,被beishanchudekeyijiamaoshangpinshutongbizengjia4倍bei,取qudiliaochaoguo6万wanjiaxiaoshouqinquanshangpindedianpu,屏pingbiliaochaoguo3000万wangeshexianqinquandelianjie

zainongchanpinshang,2018年nian,拼pinduoduopingtaishanggongxiaoshouliaojiazhichaoguo650亿yiyuandenongchanpin,其qizhongdabufenyounongchangzhijiexiaoshoubingsongdaoxiaofeizheshouzhong,拼pinduoduotishengliaogongyinglianxiaolv,为wei700多duowannonghuzengjialiaojiatingshouru。拼pinduoduo使shiguojiajipinkunxiandeyue14万wannongcunshangrenhenongminnenggoushouchutamendenongchanpin,并bingweitamendailaichaoguo160亿yiyuandeshouru

pinduoduodeshangshujihua,一yilairangpingtaideshangpinzaileibieshanggengjiafengfu,持chixuweiyonghutigongwumeijialiandechanpin,提tigaoyonghuzhanxing,二erlaigeipinpaishangdailaihuoliyijifazhanjihui,各gedapinpaishangyeleyihepinduoduochangqihezuo。可kejianpinduoduozhuozhuliaogonggeichanshengxuqiudexiaofeixinli,不buduanzengjiashangpinzhonglei,保baozhengliaoGMV的dechixuxingchengchang

juruiyinyanbaocheng,拼pinduoduo30天tianliucunlvchaoguosuoyouduishou,QuestMobile数shujuzebiaoming,拼pinduoduoAPP的de30天tianbaoliulv,较jiao2017年nianditishengliao11%。

er、货huobihualvxianzhutisheng

zaibaozhengGMV持chixugaozengchangdeqingkuangxia,我womentandaohuobihuadewenti,所suoweidehuobihuajiushishouruyuGMV的debizhi,代daibiaozaiGMV这zhejiaoyijinexia,给geidianshangpingtaidailailiaoduoshaoshouru。智zhitongcaijingAPP了liaojiedao,拼pinduoduodehuobihualvhendi,但danzhubushangshengdequshi,2018年niandehuobihualvwei2.8%,较jiao2017年nianzengjialiao1.6个gebaifendian

tupianlaiyuan:公gongkaipiludeshujuzhengli

duibijingdongjiali,拼pinduoduodehuobihualvrengyoujiaogaodetishengkongjian。京jingdongdehuobihualvzuigao,货huobihualvweichizai27%左zuoyou,2018年nianwei27.17%,主zhuyaoshigaigongsiyipingtaiziyingweizhu,这zheheqitaliangjiadianshangpingtaiyouzhuojiaodadequbie,阿alihepinduoduoshuxingshiyiyangde,以yipingtaijingyingweizhu,阿alihuobihualvyezaizhubushangsheng,2018财cainianwei5.2%,比bipinduoduogaochu85.7%。

genjuruiyinyuce,2021年nian,拼pinduoduodenianGMV将jiangganchaojingdong,达da2.07万wan亿yiyuan,若ruohuobihualvtishengzhiali2018财cainiandeshuiping,2021年nian,拼pinduoduodeshourujiangdadao1076.4亿yiyuan,以yipinduoduozai2018年niangejidudemaolilvpingjunzai77%计jisuan,彼bishimaolijiangdadao828.8亿yiyuan。阿alizai2011年nianshourupo1000亿yiyuan,彼bishimaolilv66.1%,若ruoyicijisuan,拼pinduoduo2021年nianmaolilvjiangdadao711.5亿yiyuan

guimozuodaliao,庞pangdadeyonghuliuliangzaizhe,且qietongguoyixiecuoshijiaqiangyonghuzhanxing,要yaozhuanqianyeshifenfenzhongdeshi,不bujinshikaopingtaishouquyongjinfeiyijishangjiachouqufuwufei,同tongshihuankeyikaifagezhongyinglimoshi,比biru广guanggao、游youxi、视shipinyijizhishifufeideng。通tongguokaifaqitachuangshoumoshi,拼pinduoduodehuobihualvhuoxuyaogaoyualideshuiping

san、未weilaifeichangzhideqidai

tongguoshangwenneirongkezhi,我womenzhidaoliaopinduoduoyejichengchangdechixuxinghenqiang,这zheshigedaquanshangtouxingkanhaotadezhuyaoyuanyinzhiyi,但danshiyingliyeyaotongbugenshang,如ruguochixushaogudongyijizhaiquanrendeqian,即ji使shiguimozuodaliao,也yehuiyouchushideyitian

shijishang,做zuodisanfangdedianshangpingtaijibenbucunzaigudingchengben,也yebucunzaijinhuochengben,因yincimaolilvshichaogaode,主zhuyaoshaoqianfangxianggexiangfeiyongzhichu。根genjupinduoduoyanjiangwenjian,2018年niangaigongsikuisunjiadazhuyaoshixiaoshoujishichangfeiyongdafuzengjiasuozhi,而erguanlifeiyonglvjiyanfafeiyonglvweichijiaoweiwending

zhidezhuyideshi,该gaigongsiyanjiangcailiaozhongdedeguanlifeiyonghecaibaozhongyibanxingzhengjiguanlifeiyongbuyiyang,财caibaozhongdafuduzengjialiaoguquanjilibufen,导daozhixingzhengjiguanlifeiyonglvzai2018年nianQ2由you2017年niande0.06亿yiyuanfeishengzhi58亿yiyuan,但danguquanjilibingfeishijizhichuxiang

xiaoshoushichangfeiyonglvdafuzengjiazhuyaoshigaigongsizengjialiao线xianshanghe线xianxia广guanggao、促cuxiaohepinpaitui广guanghuodongdezhichu,拼pinduoduoqianqizhuyaoshipinpaitui广guangzhanlue,目muqianyiyouzhimingdu,活huoyueyonghuyitishengzhiquanguodier,且qieyonghuzhanxingjiada,预yujihouqizaipinpaitui广guangshangdefeiyonghuidadajiangdi。此ciwai,2018年niangaigongsiyou305.4亿yiyuanxianjin,同tongbizengchangliao145.7%,费feiyongjiangdiyouwangchixutigaoxianjinliushuiping

yidianshangpingtaishuxingkan,随suizhuopinduoduomingqikuoda,以yijiguimokuozhang,未weilaigaigongsixiaoshoushichangfeiyonglvjiangweichizaixingyeshuiping,以yialiweili,阿alidexiaoshou、市shichangyijiguanlifeiyongyizhiweichizai20%左zuoyou,该gaixiangfeiyonglvfeichangwending

2021年nian,若ruoruiyinyucesuoyan,拼pinduoduodeGMV达dadao2.07万wan亿yiyuan,如rushangwenshourujimaoliyuce,假jiashegaigongsixiaoshoushichangjiguanlifeiyonglvxiajiangzhi20%,彼bishigaigongsidejinglirunjiangbamuqiandeguzhiPE打dazhidanweishu,而ermuqianalideguzhidadao44倍bei

zongshangkanlai,作zuoweitouzizhe,不bujinyaokandaodangqiandecaiwubiaoxian,还huanyaoduiqiweilaicaiwuzuoyupan,通tongguoshangwenneirong,拼pinduoduoweilaiyejigaochengchangyiranshikechixude,且qiefeiyonglvyouwangjiangdizhixingyeshuiping,就jiuruiyinduipinduoduoGMV的deyupanlaishuo,目muqianpinduoduodeguzhirengshihendide

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