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金管局又双叒叕入市捍卫联系汇率制,各大行如何看港元未来?

2019-03-15     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:分析人士们认为,香港的这一轮汇率干预远未结束。他们正密切关注香港金融体系的资金规模与当地借贷成本之间的相互作用。据美银美林和华侨永亨指出,在港元大幅升值之前,做空港元仍有赚头。而香港金管局将至少再斥资500亿港元(合64亿美元)来捍卫联系汇率….

fenxirenshimenrenwei,香xianggangdezheyilunhuilvganyuyuanweijieshu

tamenzhengmiqieguanzhuxianggangjinrongtixidezijinguimoyudangdijiedaichengbenzhijiandexianghuzuoyong。据jumeiyinmeilinhehuaqiaoyonghengzhichu,在zaigangyuandafushengzhizhiqian,做zuokonggangyuanrengyouzhuantou。而erxianggangjinguanjujiangzhishaozaichizi500亿yigangyuan(合he64亿yi美元)来laihanweilianxihuilvzhi

guoquyizhou,港gangyuanduimeiyuanlvcidiezhiruofangduihuanbaozhengshuiping,迫po使shijinguanjumairuzongzhijin7亿yimeiyuandegangyuan。分fenxishimenzaiyideshi,在zaiyinxingkaishiganshoudaozijinjinzhangzhiqian,香xianggangyinxingtixijieyujiujingnengjiangdaoduodideshuiping?鉴jianyuguoqu10年nianxianggangdeliudongxingshuipingzai4260亿yigangyuanzhi710亿yigangyuanzhijianbodong,这zheyidianhennanpanduanchulai。(当dangjinguanjugoumaigangyuanshi,银yinxingtixijieyuhuixiajiang

qunianbayue,香xianggangjinguanjubacirushi,累leijichengjieyue331亿yigangyuangupan,香xianggangyinxingtixijieyudie穿chuan800亿yigangyuan,为weishinianlaidiwei。 目muqian,香xianggangyinxingtixizongjieyuzaizuori(3月yue14日ri)进jinyibujiangzhi709.12亿yigangyuan,但dangangmeixicharengyoutaolikongjian。因yinci,几jihumeiyoushimenengzuzhijiaoyishangpaoshougangyuanhuanqugangyuanlaitaoli

dahezibenshichangxianggangyouxiangongsiyazhoudiqu(日ribenchuwai)首shouxijingjixuejiaKevin Lai表biaoshi:“只zhiyaoxichacunzai,就jiuhuijixucunzaireqianwailiudeyali。当dangxianggangyinxingtixizongjiejiangzhi200亿yizhi300亿yigangyuanshi,香xianggangyinxinglilvjiangduizhengfuganyugengjiamingan。”

yinhuilvcaozuodaozhiyinxingtongyechaijielilvbiaosheng,有youkenengjiajuzhegequanqiuzuiangguifangdichanshichangdeyali。但danyouyigebanfakeyihuanjiezhezhongqingkuang——香xianggangdangjuyifaxingliao1万wan亿yigangyuandewaihuijijinpiaoju,如ruguopiaojudaoqi,将jiangbazijinzhongxinzhurugaitixi;且qiexiangganggaoda4345亿yimeiyuandewaihuichubeiyezuyiyingduizhuangkuang

yixiaweifenxishiduigangyuanhejinguanjuganyuhuishidekanfa

meiyinmeilin(策celueshiRonald Man)

xianggangjinguanjujinniankenengxuyaozaihuafei600亿yigangyuanlaihanweilianxihuilvzhi。这zheyiweizhuodao2019年niandi,香xianggangyinxingtixijieyujiangjiangzhi100亿yigangyuan,接jiejin2008-09年nianjinrongweijibaofaqiandeshuiping

reqianwailiubuhuidaozhirongzihuanjingbiandewuxu、混hunluan,因yinweijinguanjukeyitongguojiangbufenEFBs到daoqilaishifangliudongxing。若ruojieyuzongediyu100亿yigangyuan,香xianggangyinxingyekejiaxi25个gejidian

gushitouzizhekeyichushougangyuanduihuanrenminbi,并binggoumaineidigupiao;但danxianggangdezijinwailiujiangshijianjinde

huaqi(策celueshiSun Lu和heGaurav Garg)

yinweiliudongxingjinzhangdefengxianjiaodi,银yinxingyexihuanzuokonggangyuantaoli。但dandangqiandezuokongguimoyuquniantongqixiangbijiaoshao,因yinweizhezhongyazhuxuyao“超chaojiganggan”才cainengdedaokeguandehuibao。由youyu美联储degepailichang,以yijixianggangquefayouxiyinlidekejiguIPO,银yinxingtongyechaijielilvbuhuidafushangsheng

xingzhan(香xianggang)(市shichangbuzongjingliTommy Ong)

zaijieyudiepo500亿yigangyuanzhihou,一yigeyuehesangeyuedeHibor将jiangpansheng,挤jiyazuokonggangyuandekongjian;这zhekenengzaixiazhoumozhiqianjiuhuifasheng

chufeijieyudiepo200亿yigangyuan,否fouzegeyeHibor不buhuichixushangsheng;一yigeyueHibor将jiangzai3月yuedidadao1.8%,到dao6月yuedizeshengzhi2%。

dahezibenshichang(经jingjixuejiaKevin Lai)

gangyuanquannianjiangzai7.85附fujinpaihuai,未weilaijigeyuejinguanjujiangxuyaoduocirushiganyuhuilv

Lai认renweijieyuzuizhongjiangjiangzhiling,但dantabingweigeichujutishijianbiao,这zhegeguochengxuyaoduoshaoshijianjiangqujueyumeiguodehuobizhengce。在zailiudongxingjiangzhilinghou,Hibor将jiangdafushangsheng

xianggangjinnianrengyoukenengdafujiaxi。而erzaijinnianchu,外waizihuoduohuoshaoyijingtingzhiliuruxianggangliao

huaqiaoyongheng(经jingjixuejiaCarie Li)

gangyuankongtoujiaoyideguimoburuqunianda,是shiyinweitouzizhezaijieyuxiajianghoubiandegengjiajinshen。本benyuejieyukenenghuidiezhi600亿yigangyuan,4月yuehuo5月yuediezhi500亿yigangyuan,明mingnianmougeshihouhuidiezhi200亿yigangyuan。若ruodiyu200亿yigangyuan,香xianggangjinguanjukenenghuitongguoEFBs到daoqilaizhuruliudongxing,以yianfutouzizheqingxu

jinniangangyuanduimeiyuanhuilvjiangdiezhi7.83以yixia;在zai2019年niandedabufenshijianli,1个geyuehe3个geyueHibor将jiangbaochizai2%以yixia

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