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周一最具爆发力六大牛股(名单)

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:中财网
文章摘要:顺鑫农业(000860)2018年年报:百亿目标已实现,牛栏山进入新时代业绩符合预期,毛利率稳步提升公司2018年营收120.74亿(+2.9%),归母净利润7.44亿(+69.8%);18Q4营收28.71亿(-0.5%),归母净利润2.08亿(+25.1%),业绩符合预期,主因18Q4猪肉及房地….

    顺shunxinnongye(000860)2018年niannianbao:百bai亿yimubiaoyishixian,牛niulanshanjinruxinshidai

    业yejifuheyuqi,毛maolilvwenbutisheng

    公gongsi2018年nianyingshou120.74亿yi(+2.9%),归guimujinglirun7.44亿yi(+69.8%);18Q4营yingshou28.71亿yi(-0.5%),归guimujinglirun2.08亿yi(+25.1%),业yejifuheyuqi,主zhuyin18Q4猪zhuroujifangdichanyewukuisundengtuoleisuozhi。18年nianmaolilv39.96%(+6.0pcts),净jinglilv6.03%(+2.3pcts),主zhuyinguimoxiaoyingjiguanlifeiyonglvxiajiangdengsuozhi。预yushoukuan56.54亿yi(+49.4%),销xiaoshoushangpin、提tigonglaowudengshoudaoxianjin163.84亿yi(+5.0%),经jingyingxingxianjinliujinge31.75亿yi(+28.5%),现xianjinliudedaomingxiangaishan

    牛niulanshanshixianbai亿yi,猪zhurouyujihouxuhaozhuan

    分fenxingyelaikan,占zhanbiyue77%的debaijiuyingshou92.78亿yi(+43.82%),占zhanbiyue20.5%的dezhurouyingshou24.71亿yi(-23.13%),占zhanbiyue1.2%的defangdichanyingshou1.45亿yi(-8.8%),占zhanbiyue1%的deshipinjiagongyeyingshou1.11亿yi(+18.1%),纸zhiyeyingshou0.3亿yi(-30.9%);具jutilaikan,屠tuzairouzhipinjiagong23.68亿yi(-20.2%),种zhongzhuyingshou1.03亿yi(-58.0%),主zhuyinmaozhujiagexiadiejizhuwenshijiandengsuozhi。草caogendiaoyanxianshi,2018年nianniulanshanxiaoshoueshixianpobai亿yi,牛niulanshanjinruhoubai亿yishidai。从congquyulaikan,占zhanbichao38%的debeijingdiquyingshou46.03亿yi(-27.36%),占zhanbijin62%的dewaibudiquyingshou74.72亿yi(+38.42%)。草caogendiaoyanxianshi,18年nianniulanshan亿yiyuanyishangdeshengjishichang(包baokuozhixiashi)达dadao22个ge,预yuji18年nianchangsanjiaodiquyingshou20亿yizuoyou,珠zhusanjiaodiquyingshou10亿yizuoyou。2018年nian500万wanyishangxiaoshouedejingxiaoshangshuliangda193个ge,1000万wanyishangxiaoshouejingxiaoshangshuliangda134个ge,5000万wanyishangjingxiaoshangshuliangda36个ge

    进jinruhoubai亿yishidai,深shengengxizuoquanguohua

    公gongsicongzuizaode“一yichengliangzhousanqu”到daohoulaide“1+4+5”再zaidao“2+6+2”布buju,即jiyibeijingtianjinweihexin,两liangshan、两lianghe、内neimeng、辽liaoningliugeshengshiweizhongdian,长changsanjiaohezhusanjiaolianggediquweiyitiao线xian,进jinxingquanguohuabuju。目muqianbeijingdiquhewaibudiquyingshoubizhongyue4:6,全quanguohuazhirikedai。未weilainiulanshanjiangshixiansandazhuanbian:第diyi,通tongguo“深shenfenxiao”实shixiancongquanguohuakuozhangzhuanxiangshichangzongshenfazhan;第dier,通tongguo“调diaojiegou”,实shixiancongdanyidadanpinzhuanbiandaoduogechanpinbingjin;第disan,通tongguo“树shuyangban”,从congshengengbeijingdiquzhuanbiandaotongbudazaowaibuyangbanshichang

    投touzijianyi

    我womenkanhaoniulanshanquanguohuabuju,存cunzaibaolifangdichanhezhurouyewuyuqi,预yuce19-21年nianEPS2.01/2.64/3.43元yuan,对duiyingPE22/17/13,维weichi“买mairu”评pingji

    风fengxiantishi

    食shipinanquanwenti;白baijiuxingyexuqiufanghuan;全quanguohuakuozhangbujiyuqi;地dichanyewubaolibujiyuqi

    中zhongguoliantong(600050)4G深shenhua5G播bozhong,混hungaituijinxiaolvtisheng

    业yejifuheyuqi,维weichi“增zengchi”评pingji。公gongsifabu2018年nianduyejigonggao,全quannianshixianyingshou2637亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang5.9%;归guimujinglirun40.8亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang858.3%。经jingyingqingkuangchixugaishan。我womenjixukanhaogongsishouyi4G深shenhuahe5G建jianshe,竞jingzhenglitisheng,维weichi2019-2021年nianEPS预yucewei0.19/0.26/0.37元yuan,维weichi“增zengchi”评pingji,目mubiaojia8.4元yuan

    混hungaichixutuijin,借jieliwaibuziyuan,经jingyingxiaolvtisheng。我womenrenweihungairengjiangshigongsiweilaizhuyaokandianzhiyi。公gongsijiaqiangyuBATJ、滴dididenghezuo,2I2C用yonghuquannianjingzeng4400万wanhu,总zongshuyue9400万wanhu。在zaishipinneirong、云yunjisuan、大dashuju、物wulianwangjiAI领lingyuyuyeneiyouxiuqiyehezuo,以yiqingzichanmoshijiakuaiyewutuozhan。云yunnanfengongsitansuodehungaixinmoshi,具jubeitui广guangtiaojian,会huizaigengdadiqufanweijinxingtui广guang

    补buqiang4G网wangluo,深shenhuahulianwangzhuanxing,持chixumoshichuangxin。公gongsidalituijin4G低dipinzhonggeng,此ciqianqidongde41.6万wanLTE基jizhanzhaobiaoweijinnianlaizuiduo,将jiangyouxiaomibuduanban。同tongshigongsidazaozhuanshudehulianwanghuachanpin,全quanmiantui广guangtengxunwangka、冰bingjilingdengchanpinchuangxin,持chixugaishanyonghutiyan。2018年niangongsi4G用yonghujingzeng4505万wanhu,总zongshudadao2.2亿yihu,4G用yonghushichangfenetongbitigao1.3个gebaifendian。我womenrenwei,低dipinzhonggengyongjiaodichengbentigaofugai广guangdu,最zuidahualiyongpinpuziyuan,为wei5G、物wulianwangfazhandaxiajianshijichu

    合helibuju5G,股guquanjilituidong,即jijiangjinrufazhankuaichedao。公gongsi2018年nianzibenkaizhiwei449亿yiyuan,较jiaoyuanyusuan500亿yijieyue10%,符fuhewomendui5G前qianqizibentouziyidingfududejiangdidepanduan。同tongshi,中zhongguoliantongyijingzai17个gechengshi5G开kaizhanshifanheshidian,并bingjianggenjuceshixiaoguojishebeichengshudu,适shidukuodashiyanguimo。公gongsiyijingmingquedangqianzhuyaotuijinNSA组zuwang,2019年nian580亿yizibenkaizhizhong60-80亿yishiyongyu5G试shiyan。结jiehe3G/4G时shidaidefazhanjingyan,我womenpanduan,在zai5G牌paizhaofafangchuqi,随suizhuochelianwang、AR/VR等deng5G应yingyongchangjingtuokuan,流liuliangzengchanghegaofujiazhifuwuchuangxinluodi,将jiangdaidongARPU值zhitisheng,叠diejiayonghushuliangzengjia,将jiangshixianyejikuaisuzengchang。公gongsi2018年nianfabudeshouqixianzhixingguquanjilifangan,解jiesuotiaojianwei2018-2020年nianROE分fenbiewei2%、3.9%、5.4%,同tongbichixuzengchang,会huijihuogongsidongli,推tuidongzhongguoliantongjinrufazhankuaichedao

    风fengxiantishi:5G资zibenkaizhiyalizengda;携xiehaozhuanwangzhengcedaozhixingyejingzhengjiaju

    克kelaijidian(603960)汽qichedianzizidonghualongtou,内neishengwaiyankuaisuchengchang

    投touziluoji

    基jiyinchunzhengdeqichedianzizidonghuafanganshang。公gongsichuangshirenshiguoneidiyipijiqirenzidonghuajiaoshouzhuanjia,20年nianzhuanzhujiqirenlingyu,依yituojishuyoushidapoguowailongduan,抓zhuazhuqichedianzizidonghualangchao,深shendubangdingboshixidengtoubukehudailaiyejikuaisuzengchang。2018年nianyingshou5.83亿yiyuan(主zhuyetongbi24.40%,并bingbiaohoutongbi131.51%,),归guimujingli0.65亿yiyuan(同tongbi32.31%),成chengchangweiguoneilingxiandeqichedianzirouxingzidonghuagongyingshang

    汽qichedianzizhanbitishengdixiaoqicheshichangxiahua,公gongsishiguoneixifenlongtou。虽suiranzhongguojiquanqiuqichexiaoliangzengchangtingzhi,但danshouyidiandonghua、智zhinenghuaqushi,汽qichedianzijiazhizhanbichixutigao。汽qichedianzibeiboshidengjutouzhudao,近jinnianlaiyejigaishanzhijiedaidongzidonghuatouzixuqiu,预yuji2020年nianzhongguoqichedianzizidonghuashichang285亿yiyuan,全quanqiu665亿yiyuan;汽qichedianzishijiqirenzidonghuayouzhilingyu,供gongyingshangyingzhetongchi,公gongsiyikaojishuhefuwuyoushichengweiguoneixifenlongtou

    内neishengzengchangdiejiawaiyanbinggou,业yejixiangshangdongnengqiangjin

    内neisheng:绑bangdingboshixi,共gongxiangxinnengyuanqicheshengyan。公gongsishilianhedianziguanjianshebeizuidagongyingshang,随suizhuoguochanhualvtisheng、核hexincengshebeishentou,还huanyou2倍beiyewukongjian(4-5亿yishourushangxian);公gongsishiboshiquanqiuyazhouweiyiguanjiangongyingshang,2018供gonghuochunianqiandingjin亿yiyuandingdan,打daruqiESP、iBooster等denghexinxinnengyuanqichedianzibujian,业yewuchengchangkongjianda;另lingwaigongsixiangmudanjiabuduantigao使shidechengchangluojigengjiatongchang,正zhengmuzikuochandailai2亿yiyuanchannengzengliang,支zhichengyejikuozhang

    外waiyan:并binggoushanghaizhongyuan,延yanshenyewulian、增zenghouyeji。一yifangmiandazhongxihezichefenechixutisheng,2019年nianyujixiaoliangweichiwending,众zhongyuanbangdingdazhongxidiejiaguoliubiaozhuntuixinghongli,业yejizengchangkeqi;另lingyifangmiangongsiyuzhongyuanshichangxietong(客kehujiaochagongxiang)、生shengchanxietong(帮bangzhuzhongyuandichengbenkuochan),形xingcheng1+1>2效xiaoying

    投touzijianyi

    公gongsizidonghuajiyinchunzheng、技jishushilishenhou,是shiguoneiqichedianzizidonghuaxiquelongtou。未weilailianhedianziheboshiquanqiuyewuqifali,内neishengzengchangqiangjin;叠diejiashougouguoneigaoyaranyoufenpeiqilingdaozheshanghaizhongyuan,外waiyanjinyibuzenghouyeji、完wanshanchanyelian。预yuji2019-2021年nianEPS为wei0.714/0.924/1.200元yuan,对duiyingshiyinglv46.7/36.1/27.8,给geiyu“增zengchi”评pingji

    风fengxiantishi

    汽qichedianzizidonghuashichangxuqiubujiyuqi;客kehujizhongfengxian,博boshixidingdanbujiyuqi;市shichangjingzhengjiajufengxian;盈yinglishuipingxiajiangfengxian

    菲feilihua(300395)18年niandajuanjingli,军jungonghebandaotiwanggongcu19年nianyejigaozeng

    事shijian:菲feilihuafabu2018年niannianbao,实shixianyingshou7.22亿yi,同tongbizengchang32.41%;归guimujingliwei1.61亿yi,同tongbizengchang32.4%,复fuheyuqi。单danjidukan,Q4营yingshouwei1.99亿yi,同tongbizengchang22%,增zengsuyousuofanghuan,主zhuyaoshoujungongchanpinjiegouyingxiang;利lirunzongewei4674万wanyuan,同tongbizengchang14.3%;归guimujingliwei4453万wanyuan,同tongbizengchang1.6%(2017和he2018Q4所suodeshuilvfenbiewei-7.3%和he4.7%,导daozhiguimujinglizengsujiaodi)。公gongsifabulirunfenpeiyuan,拟niyi3亿yigubenweijishu,向xiangquantigudongmei10股gupaifaxianjinhongli2元yuan(含hanshui)。同tongshi,公gongsifabu2019年nianyijiduyejiyugao,预yujiguimujinglirunwei2314.6~2945.9万wanyuan,同tongbizengsuwei10%~40%。

    18年nianyingshouzengchangzhuyaoshibandaoti、军jungongheshanghaishichuangdengyingshouzengsujiaogao。1)半bandaotishiyingcailiaoshouruzengsuwei52%(公gongsiyongyouchaoyuexingyezengsudezhuyaoyuanyinshihexinzizhirenzhengdaozhideshizhanlvtigaoyijihechengshiyingdebufenchannengshifang。在zaibandaotilingyu,公gongsishiguoneiweiyiyijiatongguoguojisandabandaotiyuanchanshebeishangrenzhengdeshiyingcailiaoqiye。除chuliao2011年nianhuodeTEL认renzhengwai,LAM认renzhengdeguigeyida22种zhong,AMAT认renzhengdeguigeyeyou18种zhong);2)军jungongshouruzengsuchaoguo20%(公gongsishiquanqiushaoshujuyoushiyingxianweiliangchannenglidezhizaoshangzhiyi,也yeshiguoneiweiyiyijiajuyoujungongzizhideshiyingxianweizhizaoshang);3)上shanghaishichuangzengsuyue35%(菲feilihuadequanzizigongsi,生shengchanshiyingzhipin,下xiayouxuqiuzhuyaoweibandaoti、精jingmiguangxue、光guangfuheguangxiandeng);4)光guangtongxinshouxingyejingqidu、竞jingzhengjilie(产chanpintongzhihuajiaogao,无wumingxianjishubilei)以yijichengbenshangshengdengduoyinsuyingxiang,收shouruzengsuhemaolilvjunyousuoxiahua

    展zhanwangweilai,我womenrenweigongsidehexinkandianzaijungonghebandaotilingyu

    军jungonglingyu:下xiayouxuqiufangliang+纤xianwei?编bianzhiwu?复fucaichanyelianyanshen,需xuqiuhelirunlvzhubutisheng

    1)部bufenwuqiliezhuang19年nianyouwangfangliang+公gongsihexingonghuo:下xiayouwuqiyanfajinchengdetuijinjiangdaidongshiyingxianweidexuqiuzengchang,公gongsijuyouhexinjunfanggonghuozizhi,边bianjixinzengmingxian

    2)纤xianwei?编bianzhiwu?复fucaiyanshen,需xuqiulianghelirunlvjunzhubutigao:公gongsimuqianzaixianweilingyujishujileishenhou,控kongguwuhanlihang,作zuoweituozhanxiayoudezhongyaoyanfapingtai。公gongsijiangfuhecailiaozuoweiweilaifazhandezhanluefangxiang,积jijituozhanlitibianzhi、特tezhongxianweicailiaohefuhecailiaozhizaolingyu,每meiyigehuanjiedexuqiulianghelirunlvjunzhubutigao。另lingwai,公gongsilizugaoxingnengshiyingxianweihedichengbenjizhiwudejishutedianheyoushi,开kaizhanliaoxianjinjiegougongnengyitihuafanggerefuhecailiaohegaojueyuanshiyingxianweifuhecailiaodeyanfa,目muqianyanzhijieduanyijieshu,各gexiangzhibiaojunmanzushejiyaoqiu,已yizhuanrudingxingjieduan

    半bandaoti:市shizhanlvtisheng+品pinleikuozhang,对duichongshebeixiaoshouzengsuxiaofuxiahuadeyingxiang;中zhongchangqikanguochantidai

    1)市shizhanlvchixutisheng:全quanqiushiyingbolishichangguimojiejin250亿yi,半bandaotishichangyue160亿yi,且qierengzaibuduanzengchang,对duiyugongsitiliang,市shichangkongjianzugouda(预yuji2018年niangongsizaibandaotilingyuyingshouyuewei2.3亿yi)。石shiyingcailiaozuoweihaocaiweiyu“石shiyingcailiao-石shiyingzhipin-半bandaotishebeishang-半bandaotizhizaoshang”产chanyelianzuishangyou,设shebeishangdeqiangshihuayuquan使shidezizhirenzhengchengweizuiguanjianyinsu。菲feilihuashiquanqiudiwujia、国guoneiweiyiyijiahuodezhuyaobandaotishebeishang(东dongjingdianzi、应yingyongcailiao、LamResearch)认renzhengdeshiyingcailiaogongyingshang,具jubeihexinjishu。目muqianzaikeshishebeilingyushizhanlvjiejin10%,随suizhuoshangyeziyuandejilei、产channengkuozhang、成chengbenyoushijiguochantidaidetuijin,市shizhanlvyouwangzhubutigao

    2)品pinleikuozhangdailaibianjizengliang:公gongsinidingzengjiamakuosanhehechengshiyinglingyu,潜qianzaixinzeng72亿yishichangkongjian。不buguanshirenzhenghuanshikehufuwunenglijunyouyidingjichu。据juwomencesuan,定dingzengxiangmu(电dianronghehechengshiying)2019年nianbianjishangyingshouyouwangzengjiajiejin10%,边bianjidaidongjiaomingxian,一yidingchengdushangduichongbandaotishebeixuqiuzengsuxiaofuxiahuadeyingxiang

    投touzijianyi:我womenyuji2018和he19归guimujinglifenbiewei1.61和he2.29亿yi,对duiyingPE为wei36和he25倍bei(若ruokaolvdingzeng,19年nianPE28倍bei)。比bijiaobandaoticailiaojijungonglingyugongsi,估guzhijiaodi。公gongsijubeihexinjishuyoushi(半bandaotishebeiyuanchangrenzheng+军jungonggonghuozizhi)及jijiaodachengchangxing,继jixuzhongdiantuijian

    风fengxiantishi:半bandaoti、光guangtongxinxuqiudafuxiahua;新xinpintuozhanbujiyuqi;军jungongwuqiliezhuangbujiyuqi;定dingzengmutouxiangmujinzhanshouyingxiang

    上shanghaijiahua(600315)2018年niannianbaodianping:2018平pingwenshouguan,2019全quanlihuanxingbaicaoji、期qidaipinpaixinsheng

    18年nianshouruzeng10.01%、其qizhongQ4增zengsuyousuotisheng

    公gongsifabu2018年nianbao,实shixianyingyeshouru71.38亿yiyuan、同tongbizeng10.01%,扣koufeijinglirun4.57亿yiyuan、同tongbizeng37.82%,归guimujinglirun5.40亿yiyuan、同tongbizeng38.63%,EPS0.81元yuan,拟ni10派pai2.5元yuan(含hanshui)。公gongsi2018年nianshijishouruyujinglizengsudiyu2018年nianguquanjilimubiao(公gongsi2018年nianqiquanjilidiyiqixingquanqiyejiwei2018年nianshouruzengsubudiyu23%或huo2018~19年nianshouruzengsubudiyu54%,以yiji2018年nianjinglirunzengsubudiyu41%或huo2018~19年nianjinglizengsubudiyu92%)。

    18Q1-Q4收shourufenbiezeng10.33%、8.24%、9.95%、11.66%,归guimujinglirunfenbiezeng35.92%、45.73%、31.68%、42.15%。其qizhong18Q2收shouruzengsujiaodizhuyaoyinweipinhuiqudaojingxiaoshanggenghuan、佰baicaojijigaofuxiaoshoushoudaoyingxiangjiteququdaodiaozheng,而erjingliduanhuoyixingongchangxiangguandezhengfubutiedengzhizengsujiaogao;18Q4收shouruzengsuhuifuzhishuangweishuzengchang,显xianshiweipinhuijingxiaoshangbiangengyingxiangzhujianxiaochu,同tongshihuoyiyushuangshiyidianshangxiaoshoujinglijikuajiehezuodewanghongbaokuanchanpinrexiao(如rumeijiajinglianhedabaitutuichudenaitangweichungao)。

    佰baicaojishouruxiaofuxiajiang、高gaofuhuifuxiaofuzhengzengchang,其qitapinpaibiaoxianjixujingli

    分fenpinpailaikan:佰baicaoji2018年nianquannianshourutongbixiaofuxiajiang,六liushen、美meijiajingdengjixubaochishuangweishuzengchang,高gaofuzai18Q1~3收shouruluejiang、在zai18Q4销xiaoshouzhulixiaquannianshourushixianzhengzengchang,启qichu、玉yuze、家jiaandengshouruzengsujunzai40%以yishang。CaymanA2,Ltd(主zhuyingyinglunyingtongbuweiyongpindiyipinpaitangmeixing)2016年niandibeigongsiquanzishougou,2018年nianshixianshouru16.33亿yiyuan、同tongbizeng12.85%,净jingli7528.09万wanyuan、同tongbizeng103.08%,继jixudafuchaoqiyejichengnuo(2018年nianjinglichengnuowei2555.99万wanyuan)。剔tichuCaymanA2,Ltd影yingxiang,公gongsiziyoupinpaineishengzengchang9.20%、较jiao2017年nian15.85%的dezengsuyousuofanghuan

    主zhuyaoshoudaobaicaoji、高gaofutuolei

    分fenpinleilaikan,美meironghufu、个gerenhulijijiajuhulidengshourufenbietongbizeng3.41%、12.27%、41.18%,其qizhongmeironghufuzhanbixiajiang2.07PCT至zhi33.03%、个gerenhulizhanbitisheng1.35PCT至zhi63.07%,家jiajuhulizhanbitisheng0.72PCT至zhi3.27%。

    分fenqudaolaikan,我womentuisuan2018年niangongsi线xianshang、线xianxiashouruyujizengsufenbieyuewei38%左zuoyou、3%左zuoyou,电dianshangshouruzhanbitisheng5PCT至zhi25%。

    毛maolilv、费feiyonglvshuangjiang,存cunhuoshuipingrenggaodaigaishan

    毛maolilv:2018年niangongsimaolilvtongbixiajiang2.14PCT至zhi62.79%,主zhuyaoweixingongchangtouchanxinzengnianzhejiuchengbenyue6500万wanyuan、原yuancailiaochengbenshangshengjimaolilvjiaodidepinpaishouruzengsujiaogaodengsuozhi。其qizhongmeironghufu72.62%(-4.50PCT)、个gerenhuli58.58%(-0.03PCT)、家jiajuhuli46.64%(-5.23PCT)。分fenjidulaikan,18Q1~4毛maolilvfenbiewei66.72%(-5.64PCT)、62.41%(-5.00PCT)、59.02%(-9.48PCT)、62.79%(+4.67PCT),其qizhong18Q1~2毛maolilvxiajiangzhuyaoyinyuancailiaochengbenshangshengjimaolilvjiaodidepinpaishouruzengsujiaogao,18Q3毛maolilvxiajiangfudujiada,主zhuyaoyinxingongchangtouchan、产channengliyonglvjiaodibeijingxiachengbenyousuoshangsheng

    预yuji2019年niansuizhuoxingongchangchannengliyonglvshangsheng、折zhejiuyushengchanchengbenfentanxiaohuadetongshigongsijiaqiangyuancailiaochengbenguankong,毛maolilvyujijiangyousuoxiufu;长changqilaikan,由youyugongsimaolilvjiaodidepinpaiguimojiaoxiao、成chengchangxinggenggao,公gongsimaolilvyujizongtichengxianxiajiangqushi

    费feiyonglv:公gongsijinnianweitishengpinpaijingzhengli、营yingxiaotourukuodazhifeiyonglvtishengjiaokuai,公gongsijihua2018~2020三sannianneiqijianfeiyonglvmeinianxiajiang1PCT。2018年nianqijianfeiyonglvtongbijiang2.78PCT至zhi55.97%,超chaoewanchenggongsiciqianchengnuo,其qizhongxiaoshou、管guanli+研yanfa、财caiwufeiyonglvfenbie-2.17/-1.00/+0.39PCT。其qizhongxiaoshoufeiyonglvxiajiangjiaoduozhuyaoweishouruzengchangdetongshiyingxiaoleixiangguanfeiyongweiyoudafuzengchang;管guanlifeiyonglvxiajiangzhuyaoweigongzifulileifeiyongzengchangjiaoshaoyijibangongfeiyongyousuoxiajiangsuozhi

    分fenjidulaikan,18Q1~4期qijianfeiyonglvfenbiewei58.90%(-4.43PCT)、57.71%(+0.33PCT)、52.40%(-7.54PCT)、51.45%(-5.05PCT),总zongtikangongsi2018年niangejidufeiyongguankonglidujiaoda

    其qitacaiwuzhibiao:1)存cunhuojiao18年nianchuzeng16.58%至zhi8.75亿yiyuan,主zhuyaoweiyewutuozhanjiqudaobeihuosuozhi,存cunhuozhouzhuanlvwei3.27,较jiao17年niande3.39有yousuofanghuan

    2)应yingshouzhangkuanjiao18年nianchujiang11.16%至zhi10.30亿yiyuan,应yingshouzhangkuanzhouzhuanlv7.29、较jiao17年nian8.36有yousuofanghuan

    3)投touzishouyitongbijiang10.72%至zhi1.30亿yiyuan,主zhuyaoweigongsi17年niandizhifuCaymanA2,Ltd.股guquankuanzhiyinxinglicaijianshao、相xiangguanlicaishouyijianshaoji17年nianshoudaochushoujiangyintianjiangyaoyeguquanbufenzhuanrangweikuansuoquerendetouzishouyi2200万wanyuan

    4)资zichanjianzhisunshitongbizeng23.15%至zhi6031万wanyuan,主zhuyaoweicunhuodiejiasunshizengduo

    5)经jingyinghuodongjingxianjinliutongbizeng0.18%至zhi8.95亿yiyuan,变bianhuabuda

    2018年nianjixuguancheshiliuzifazhanfangzhen,延yanxu17年nianyilaidelianghaofazhan、平pingwenshouguan

    2015~2016年nianshouzhongduanlingshoupiruan、公gongsizhuliqudaoshangchaojibaihuoqudaoliuliangxiajiangdengyingxiang,公gongsishouruxianrudiaozheng。2016年niandigongsixindongshichangzhangdongfangshangren,确queli“研yanfaxianxing、品pinpaiqudong、渠qudaochuangxin、供gongyingbaozhang”等dengshiliuzijingyingfangzhen。2017年nianyigaiguoquyiqudaoqudongweizhudejingyingcelue,突tuchupinpaizhongyaoxingyudulixing、加jiaqiangpinpaiyuqudaojiandexietong/匹pipei、产chanpinshengjihuandai(如rubaicaojigaoduanhua,六liushen、美meijiajingnianqinghua,玉yuze、家jiaandengxifenhua)、在zaiyingxiaofangmianyetiejinnianqingqunti,2017年nianduopinpaibiaoxiangaishan、自ziyoupinpaizongshouruhuifushuangweishuzengchang,其qizhongbaicaoji2017年nianjieshuciqianliangnianshouruxiahua、实shixian15%以yishangdeshouruzengchang,美meijiajingjieshuciqianliangnianshourudafuxiahuaqushi、2017年nianshixianshuangweishuzengchang

    进jinru2018年niangongsijixushiliuzifazhanzhanluefangzhen

    1)产chanpinchixutuichenchuxin:佰baicaojigutaijinghuamianmoshangshi10个geyue,零lingshoutupo300万wanpian,试shishuicaizhuangpinleishangshibaicaojiyue·溢yicaixiliecaizhuang;六liushen、美meijiajingheqichujunchenggongkuajie,完wanchengjingdianchanpinnianqinghuazhongsu,六liushentuichuyuRIO合hezuodehualushuifengweijiweijiu、美meijiajinglianhedabaitutuichudenaitangweichungaozai9月yue20日rifashoudangriliangmiaoshoukong,启qichulianheguohuopinpaiguangmingjituanmosilianpinpai,支zhichiguojiatanyuegongcheng

    2)营yingxiaoshangyanxufensijingji、试shishuineirongyingxiao

    粉fensijingjifangmian,六liushenjiezhumingxingxiaoyingzaidouyinshangjinxingpinpaidingzhideUGC(UserGeneratedContent,指zhiyonghuyuanchuangneirong)传chuanbo,获huodianzanshu1600万wan;启qichuxiaoshoutupoxingao,并bingjiezhuhukeshixianpinpaizhimingduyuchanpinkoubeideshuangfengshou;佰baicaojijiezhuliyifengtuidongcaizhuangxinpindexiaoshou,微weibochuanbofugairenci1.58亿yi;美meijiajingjieliluoyunxitui广guanghushoushuanghechungao,定dingzhilihe2万wantaozaiyitianneishouqing

    内neirongyingxiaofangmian,品pinpaigenjuweibo、微weixin、小xiaohongshu、抖douyin、知zhihudebutongtexingzhenduixingdituijinhuatipuguang、借jieliKOL、与yuxiaofeizhejinxingshenduhudong、深shengengkoubeizhongcaopingtai、借jieliduanshipinshejiaopingtaixiyinliuliang、借jiezhuzhishifenxiangpingtaidazaozhuanyexingxiang,2018年nianpinpaizaikoubeiyingxiaodedaidongxiaquanwangzongpuguangjin70亿yici

    总zongtilaikan,2018年niangongsibiaoxianpingwen、延yanxu2017年nianyilaidelianghaotaishi。18Q2佰baicaoji、高gaofudengshoudaoweipinhuijingxiaoshangbiangeng、特teququdaodiaozhengyingxiangchuxiandiaozheng,18Q4影yingxiangzhubuxiaochu,除chucizhiwai,公gongsiyejizongtipingwen,全quannianshourushixianshuangweishuzengchang、较jiao2017年nianluetisu。旗qixiaduopinpaijixubaochigezixifenlingyulongtoudiwei,据juniersenquanguo线xianshanglingshouyanjiushujuku,2018年nianliushenzaihualushuishichangpaimingdiyi、市shizhanlvwei74.8%;美meijiajingzaihushoushuangshizhanlvwei12.8%、排paimingdiyi;高gaofuzainanshimianshuangshizhanlvwei7%、排paimingdisi;启qichuzaimuyuluzhongshizhanlvwei6.6%、排paimingdier,在zaiyingermianshuangzhongshizhanlv13.6%、排paimingdier

    2019年nianduopinpaijixufali、重zhongdianfazhanbaicaoji,加jiamaneirongyingxiaojiasupinpaihuolihuanfa

    2019年niangongsijiangjixuduopinpaifali,其qizhongzhongdianfazhanbaicaoji。具jutilaikan,目muqiangongsijiehemubiaokequnnianling、身shenfen、人renshengjieduanjihufuxuqiudengduoweihuaxiangduibaicaojixifenxiliezaishuli、细xifenwei“新xin”、“金jin”、“敏min”、“极ji”等dengsidachanpin线xian,在zaidingjiajiqudaoshangjunyoubutongcelue;在zaitui广guangfangmian,公gongsijihua2019年niantongguo“爆baokuandazao+资ziyuanjujiao”重zhongsuzhongcaoyaogufangjingdianguohuopinpaixingxiang,上shangbannianzhulidazaodongganmianmo、下xiabannianzhutuigaoduantaijixilie(如rutaijiriyuejinghuadeng),同tongshipeiheneirongyingxiaodengjizhongziyuanhuanhuobaicaojipinpai。据jutaoshuju,2019年nian2月yuebaicaojitianmaoqijiandianxiaoshoushouruzengsushouxianzhengxiangzengchang,一yigaiwomenzi2018年nian11月yueyilaijiancedaodeshuangweishuxiahua,建jianyiguanzhubaicaojiyejigaishandechixuxing

    其qitapinpaifangmian,1)六liushenmuyuluchanpinjixuquanmianshengji,其qi2018年nianzai线xianshangqudaoxiaoshoujinglidexiangfenmuyulujihuatuozhanjinru线xianxiaqudao;2)美meijiajingxilieshoushuangpeifang、包baozhuangdengquanmianshengji,跨kuajiehezuojixutuijin;3)高gaofujixubaochinanshibao湿shihufupinlingyudelongtoudiwei,2019年nianfalikongyouxilie、推tuichukongyoujiemianrudengchanpin;4)启qichutuichukuodaxiaofeiquntidexinpinleideng。此ciwai,继jixufahuipinpaijiandexietongzuoyong,在zaiqudao、流liuliangdengziyuanfangmianxianghucujin

    2019年niangongsihuanjiangjixufalineirongyingxiao,目muqianyijingyugedaneirongyingxiaozhuzhendipingtai(如ruxiaohongshu、抖douyin、知zhihudeng)建jianligongsicengmiandezhijieduihua,迎yinghedangxiahuazhuangpinxingyeyingxiaoqushi。我womenrenweigongsipinpailijichanpinlijiaoqiang,在zaidangqianneirongyingxiaoziyuanbeifengyongzhengduodebeijingxiajuyougengqiangdejingzhengyoushi,有youwangyouxianhuoquyouzhideyingxiaoziyuan

    多duoqudaodiaozhengyouhuachixujinxing,线xianshangzengsuyouwangchixuchaoyuexingyepingjunshuiping

    公gongsiduoqudaofazhan,其qizhongyi线xianxiashangchao(经jingxiao+直zhiying)及jibaihuoqudaoweizhu,而erjinnianshangchaojibaihuoqudaorenliuxiajiang、增zengchangchengya,CS渠qudao、电dianshang、母muyingdianxianhouxingqi,为weicigongsizaishangchaojibaihuodengchuantongqudaozhuozhongtishengkeliudaidongtongdianzengchang,同tongshituozhanCS、母muyingdian、电dianshangdengxinxingqudao。从congqudaoshuliangshangkan,2018年niangongsishangchaojibaihuoqudaoshuliangjiaoweipingwen,CS及jimuyingmendianshuliangwaiyantuozhanshuangweishuzengchang

    1)CS渠qudao:CS渠qudaogongsizhuyaotongguogaofujibaicaojidazhongdingweidediancuixiliejinxingtuozhan,2018年niandiancuixiliezaiCS渠qudaomoshilishun,2019年nianyouwangtongguomoshifuzhijiasutuozhan。截jiezhi218年niandigongsiCS渠qudaoshuliangyue1.3万wanjia,同tongbizeng11.11%。

    2)母muyingqudao:母muyingqudaozhuyaoxiaoshouqichujitangmeixingchanpin,其qizhongtangmeixingjieligongsifengfudeziyuanshixianzaimuyingqudaodekuaisufazhan(如ruhuodejiaohaodechenlieweizhi,通tongguoqichuyinliu、跨kuajiehezuomeizanchen、雅yapeidengtuozhanhuiyuan),目muqiantangmeixingyijingzaizhongguozuidamuyingliansuoqudaohaiziwangxitongzhongshixianxiaoshoudier,夯hangshigongsizaigaiqudaodejingzhengli。截jiezhi2018年niandigongsimuyingdianchao5000家jia,同tongbizengchang66.67%。

    3)电dianshangqudao:自zi2017年nianyilaigongsiduijingdong、天tianmaochaoshi、唯weipinhui、天tianmaoqijiandiandengxianhoujinxingyouhuashezhi:a)2017年niangongsiwanchengduijingdong、天tianmaochaoshidengqudaoyoujingxiaoxiangzhiyingdezhuanbian,2018年niangongsizaijingdongqudaoxiaoshoushouruchaoyuejingdongqudaozongtishuiping,天tianmaochaoshiyejibiaoxianchaogongsiyuqi;b)2018年nianzaiweipinhuizongtizengchangfalibeijingxia,公gongsirengyoujijidetupo,18Q4调diaozhengweipinhuijingxiaoshang,18Q4及ji19年nian1~2月yuegongsibiaoxianchaoyueweipinhuipingtaizongtishuiping;c)2019年niangongsiwanchengbufentianmaoqijiandianTP更genghuan,从congyuanlaidebeidong“流liuliangyunying”转zhuanbianweizhudongde“店dianpuyunzuo”,即jisuoyoudehuodong/策cehuajunyougongsiyuTP共gongtonghezuo,使shideqijiandiandeneirongyingxiaogengjiafengfu、场changjinghudongzengqiangcongertishengdianpuxiaoshou

    电dianshangqudaodeyixiexiliediaozhengxiaoguoyijingxianxian,2018年niangongsidianshangqudaoGMV增zengchangchao30%,超chaoguodianshangqudaozongti,收shouruzhanbitishengzhi25%。预yuji2019年niangongsi线xianshangqudaoshouruzengsuyouwangjixuchaoyuedianshangqudaozongtizengsushuiping。未weilaigongsiguihuadianshangshouruzhanbijinyibutishengzhi30%、长changqishenzhida50%。

    此ciwai,公gongsijijifajuebaicaojizai线xianxiaqudaodefazhanjiyu:1)商shangchaojingguoduoniandiaozheng,部bufenshangchaosuoxiaomianji、增zengjiacanyindenggonggongyulehuodong,提tishengchanpinjiegou,呈chengxiangaoduanhuaqushi,针zhenduigaibufenqudao,公gongsijihuajiangbaicaojichanpinshentoujinrugongsiyijinggoujianqilaideqiangdashangchaofenxiaotixi;2)在zaimuyingqudao,针zhenduiqichujibaicaojixiangtongdegoumairenqun,如runianqingfumudeng,在zaimuyingqudaoshidianxiaoshoubaicaojichanpin;3)在zaiCS渠qudao,典diancuixiliexiaoshoumoshilishun,其qizaiCS渠qudaoshizhanlvyijingzengchang50%,未weilaijiangjinxingtui广guangfuzhi;4)公gongsihuanjiarualimeizhuangzhihuimendianxiangmu,2018年nian20家jiamendianshishuizhihuimendian、客keliuliangyoumingxiantisheng,未weilaizhegeshidianjiangjixukuoda

    本bentuhuazhuangpinduopinpailongtou,2019全quanlizhongsubaicaoji、关guanzhuqiyejiguaidian

    我womenrenwei:1)公gongsizaixindongshichangdailingxia,坚jianchishiliuzifangzhen,发fazhanzongtiburulianghaotaishi,其qizhongbaicaoji2018年nianxianyejibodongdaigaishan,其qitapinpainianqinghua、细xifenhuaxiafazhantaishilianghao、未weilaiyouwangjixubaochi

    2)佰baicaojizai2016年nianyiqianduonianweijinxingchanpinhuanxin,新xindongshichangshangrenhou,完wanchengpinpaichubushuli、补buchongxinchanpinxilie、聘pinqingxindaiyanrendeng,为weizhongsupinpaidiandingjichu,2019年niangongsijiangzhongdianfalibaicaoji,对duibaicaojidingweizaishuli,采caiyongbaokuandazao、内neirongyingxiaodenggaoxiaofangshitongguodazaomingxingdanpinhuanxingzaixiaofeizhexinzhongdepinpaiyinxiang、重zhongsuzhongcaoyaogufangxingxiang、实shixianpinpaixinsheng;在zaiqudaofangmianyiyoujijidediaozheng,如rugenghuantianmaoqijiandianTP商shang,据jutaoshuju2月yuebaicaojitianmaoqijiandianxiaoshoushouruhuifuzhengzengchang,一yigaiciqianshuangweishuxiahua,建jianyichixuguanzhubaicaojiyejigaishandechixuxing

    3)公gongsimaolilvzhuyaoshoudaoxingongchangtouchanchengbentanxiao、产chanpinjiegouyuyuancailiaochengbenshangshengyingxiang,预yujiweilaisuizhuoxingongchangchannengliyonglvtisheng、加jiaqiangyuancailiaochengbenguankong,公gongsi2019年nianmaolilvzongtijiangyousuogaishan、但danchangqikangongsidimaolilvdepinpaizengsugenggao,总zongtimaolilvyujichengxianxiajiangqushi

    4)费feiyonglvfangmian,2019年niangongsijiangjiadaneirongyingxiaodengxinxingyingxiaofangshitongshiyouhuayingxiaofeiyongjiegou,预yujifeiyonglvzongtibaochipingwen

    5)2018年niangongsishixingqiquanjilifangan,激jiliduixiangbaohandongshichang、董dongmidenghexinguanlirenyuan,目mubiao2018~2021年nianjinglifuhezengsu37%。

    公gongsiduopinpaiduoqudaofazhan,旗qixiaduopinpaizhidiyouxiu,在zaichixu“研yanfaxianxing、产chanpinchuangxin”发fazhanzhanluexiaduopinpaiyouwangjixubaochixifenxingyelongtoudiwei,公gongsi2019年nianjiangquanmianfalimeizhuangzhupinpaibaicaoji,当dangqianqi线xianshangtianmaoqijiandianxiaoshoushujuhaozhuan,建jianyichixuguanzhu;公gongsiqiquanjilifanganzhiyingaochengchang,未weilaiwaiyanfangmianyouwangbujugaoduanmeizhuang/皮pifuyixuegainiandehufupindenggaochengchanglingyu

    考kaolvdaowaiyanbinggoujuyouyidingbuquedingxing,且qiedangqianhuazhuangpinxingyexuqiu、营yingxiaojipinpaigejubianhuajiaokuai,公gongsiduanqineizhongdiantuozhanbaicaoji、投touruyuchanchuxiaoguorengdaikaocha,下xiadiao2019~2020年nianEPS、并bingxinzeng2021年nianEPS为wei0.92、1.07、1.26元yuan,对duiying19年nianPE34倍bei,维weichi“增zengchi”评pingji

    风fengxiantishi:终zhongduanxiaofeipiruan;佰baicaojiyingxiaoxiaoguobujiyuqi;进jinkoupinjingzhengjiaju

    天tianhonggufen(002419)2018年nianbaodianping:坚jianchisandazhanlue,毛maolilvwenbutisheng

    【投touziyaodian

    天tianhonggufenfabu2018年nianniandubaogao。报baogaoqinei,公gongsishixianyingyeshouru191.38亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang3.25%;实shixianguishuyushangshigongsigudongdejinglirun9.04亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang25.92%。公gongsi2018Q4实shixianyingyeshouru53.04亿yiyuan,同tongbixiajiang5.25%;实shixianguishuyushangshigongsigudongdejinglirun2.31亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang2.03%。

    门mendianwangluotuozhan,可kebitongdianyingshouzengchang。2018年niangongsixinkai8家jiabaihuo/购gouwuzhongxinmendian,此ciwaihuanxinkaidulichaoshi8家jia,以yiji便bianlidian48家jia。另lingwaihuanyou7家jiamendianjinxingliao5-15年niandejingyingchangdixuyue,持chixuwendingzengchangdemendianguimoweigongsiyingshouzengchangdaxiajianshijichu。而ercongkaiyemanliangniandechengshubaihuo/购gouwuzhongxinmendianjingyingqingkuanglaikan,除chuhuadong、东dongnanqudebaihuodianyingshoulueyouxiajiang,其qitagequyumendianjunyoujiaohaobiaoxian,其qizhongbeijingdiqudekebimendianyingshouzengfuzuida,达da13.5%。超chaoshiyetaikebimendianyiyou4%的deyingshouzengchang。整zhengtilaikangongsitongguoyetaishengjixiyinkeliuyouyidingxiaoguo

    毛maolilvchuangxingao,三sanfeifeilvxiaofushangxing,净jinglilvyousuotisheng。2018年niangongsibaihuomendianjixushixingjiequhuadiaozheng,增zengjiamaolilvjiaogaodezulinjingyingmianji,租zulinmianjitongbishangsheng9%,百baihuoyetaikebimendianmaolilvtongbizengjia1.74个gebaifendian。综zonghekanlai,公gongsimaolilvxiangbishangniantisheng1.49个gebaifendian,创chuangjinnianlaixingao。三sanfeifangmian,销xiaoshoufeiyongheguanlifeiyonglvjunyouxiaofushangsheng,主zhuyaolaizizhigongxinchouhewuyezulinfeidezengjia,财caiwufeiyonglvyouyulixishourudezengjiaerlueyouxiajiang,总zongtilaikan,公gongsisanfeishangsheng0.67个gebaifendian,净jinglilvyou0.86个gebaifendiandetigao

    公gongsijiandingtuijinshuzihua、体tiyanshi、供gongyingliansandazhanlue。在zaishuzihuafangmian,公gongsizai18年nian4月yueyutengxundachengzhanluehezuo,11月yuetuichushougezhihuimendian,同tongshijiaqiangzhonghoutaideshuzihuagaizao。通tongguotianhongAPP推tuijinde线xianshangyewuyebiaoxianbusu,全quannianGMV7.96亿yiyuan,同tongbizengchang32%,会huiyuanrenshuda840万wan,一yinianyouchaoguoyi亿yirencizaiAPP上shangmianjiaohuhuoquxinxihuoxiaofei。在zaitiyanshifangmian,继jixutuijinbaihuo、购gouwuzhongxindezhutibianjihuagaizao,打dazaotesejiequ,形xingchengchayihuadexingxianghedingwei。在zaigongyinglianfangmian,公gongsijinyibushengengguoneiwaizhicai、自ziyoupinpaidengzhanluehexinshangpin。国guojizhicaichanpinxiaoshouezengchang61%,自ziyoupinpaifangmianxiaoshouzengchang102%,除chuciyiwai,公gongsihuantongguozaiwuliuzhongxinyouhuazuoyeliuchengherenyuanshebei,达dadaocangchuwuliufangmiandejiebenjiangfei。通tongguojianchisandazhanluedetuijin,公gongsizhengzhubuyouchuantongdetigongshangpindelingshouqiyezhuanbianweizhihuidegaoxiaodeshenghuoxiaofeifuwupingtai

    【投touzijianyi

    我womenrenweigongsitongguosandazhanluedechixushenhuayijingjubeijiaoqiangdehexinjingzhengli,根genjugongsi2019年niandeguihua,在zaiyewutuozhanshangyaojiakuaiyoushiquyudemijibudian,并bingsijiqidongxinquyutuozhan,营yingshoufangmianyouwangchixuzengchang,而erbaihuoyetaidejiegoudiaozhenghechaoshiyetaidegongyinglianjiansheyouwangtishengmaolilv,前qianzhonghoutaideshuzihuagaizaojianghuijinyibutigaoxiaolv,节jiebenjiangfei。预yujigongsi19/20/21年nianyingshouwei211.56/230.54/247.58亿yiyuan,归guimujinglirun10.90/12.18/13.79亿yiyuan,EPS0.91/1.01/1.15元yuan,对duiyingPE13.64/12.20/10.78倍bei,维weichi“增zengchi”评pingji

    【风fengxiantishi

    零lingshoushichangjingzhengjiaju

    业yetaiyouhuadeyinliuxiaoguobujiyuqi

    创chuangxinchaoshihe便bianlidiandepeiyuxiaoguobujiyuqi

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