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广发宏观:3季度经济企稳概率较高

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文转自微信公号“郭磊宏观茶座”,作者: 广发证券资深宏观固收分析师 邹文杰 博士报告要点我们认为未来大类资产的演绎逻辑将出现边际变化,资产价格的驱动逻辑将从风险偏好切换至基本面。从路径上来看,一季度处于逆周期政策推动期,经济企稳预期初步形成….

benwenzhuanziweixingonghao“郭guoleihongguanchazuo”,作zuozhe: 广guangfazhengquanzishenhongguangushoufenxishizouwenjieboshi

baogaoyaodian

womenrenweiweilaidaleizichandeyanyiluojijiangchuxianbianjibianhua,资zichanjiagedequdongluojijiangcongfengxianpianhaoqiehuanzhijibenmian。从conglujingshanglaikan,一yijiduchuyunizhouqizhengcetuidongqi,经jingjiqiwenyuqichubuxingcheng,市shichangjiaoyideshifengxianpianhao,利lilvzhaichengya;二erjiduchuyuzhengceyanzhengqi,转zhuanxiangjiaoyijibenmian,经jingjijixufanghuan线xiansuoxialilvcunzaiyidingyuqichajihui;三sanjidujibenmianquwen,通tongzhangzhongshushangsheng,大daleizichanzhuanxiangzaitongzhangjiaoyi,将jiangzhengtibuliyulilvzhai

zhengtishangwomenrenweililvchuyuxiaxingzhouqizhonghouduan,趋qushijiaoyigengweikunnan,对duijiaoyijiezouheyuqichadebawodutichuliaogenggaodeyaoqiu。分fenshiduanlaikanwomenrenwei

3-4月yue:市shichangrengchuyujiaoyifengxianpianhaodedahuanjingxia,灵linghuoguanlijiuqi,规guibifengxian,价jiazhiqujianhelipeizhi。从congjingjijibenmiankan,一yizenizhouqizhengcegaishanyuqi,二erzejijianqidongladongdingdan,三sanzexianchanzhengcefangsonggongxianzengliangchanchu,四sizetianqiyinsuqudongtiqiankaigong,多duoyinsudiejiaxingchenggongzhen,或huojiangxingchengjingjizaihuanfuxiahuadetongshijuyougaorenxingdetezheng,从congerbufenzhengwei“快kuaisuxiahua”预yuqi,导daozhililvzhengtibucunzaiqushixingjihui

congliudongxingkan,3-4月yuefen,流liudongxingdebodongxingjiangyousuoshangsheng。关guanzhugushibiaoxianhekechuangbanduiyujinronghuanjingdeyingxiang,以yijishuliangxinghejiagexinghuobizhengcegongjudecaozuodongxiang。如ruguojiangxichuxian,则zezheyijieduandekongjianhuibiwomenmuqianzhongxingyuqideyaoshaoda

5-6月yue:在zaijingjidierlunfanghuandekuangjiaxia,关guanzhuyuqichajihui。美meiguoxiaofeixuqiudefanghuanhezhudongqukucunzhouqidekaiqijiangtuidongmeiguojingjifanghuan,出chukouyalikenenghuisuiwaixuhuiluojinyibushangsheng;随suizhuopenggaizhengcedeshousuo,地dichanxiaoshouhexinkaigongdezhongxinjiangjinyibuxiachen;制zhizaoyetouzizengsuhuiluojiangqudongzhongxiayougongyezhizaoxingyezhudongqukucun。基jijianhuishengjiangshiweiyideduichong。经jingjikenengjixuchuyu2018年nianH2以yilaidedierlunfanghuanzhizhong(2018年nianQ3-Q4是shidiyilun;2019年nianQ1-Q2是shidierlun)。

nizhouqizhengce(如rujijianyingxiangzhubuluodi)将jiangyuwaixuhuiluo、棚penggaishousuo、降jiangxiyuqigongtongqudongjiaoyi。一yijidunizhouqizhengcetuigaofengxianpianhaohou,二erjiduhuojiangcunzaiyuqichaqudongdejiaoyijihui。社sherongyuM2增zengsuchasuodaibiaodehuobigongxuquekouyushinianguozhaizoushicunzaijiaohaodexiangguanxing,且qieqianzhelingxianyue6个geyue,从congjingyanguilvlaikanerjidumokenengshibenlunzhouqililvdedidian

sanjidu:经jingjiqiwen,通tongzhangzhongshutaisheng,基jibenmianqudongzaitongzhangjiaoyi。从congsherongzengsu、汽qichelingshou、基jijian、地dichanxiaoshousitiaoliantiaolingxianyujingjidejibenguilvlaikan,3季jidujingjiqiwengailvjiaogao;从congzhurou、螺luowengang、原yuanyoudengjiageyinsudequshilaikan,下xiabanniantongzhangzhongshudagailvtaisheng。经jingjiqiwendiejiatongzhangzhongshutaisheng,名mingyiGDP将jiangdagailvhuisheng。基jibenmianqudongzaitongzhangjiaoyi,利lilvzhongshujiangyousuohuisheng

hexinjiashefengxian:货huobizhengcekuansongchaoyuqi;经jingjixiaxingyalichaoyuqi

mulu

zhengwen

2018年nian12月yuezhengzhijuhuiyitichu“提tizhenshichangxinxin”,逆nizhouqizhengcemijichutai。2019年nianyilai,市shichangfengxianpianhaotisheng,风fengxianzichanjiageshangzhang,低didengjixinyongzhaishouyilvxiaxing,无wufengxianlilvxiaofuhuisheng(图tu1-2)。我womenrenweiweilaidaleizichandeyanyiluojijiangchuxianbianjibianhua,资zichanjiagedequdongluojijiangcongfengxianpianhaoqiehuanzhijibenmian

jibenmian:下xiaxingfengxianxiajiang,逆nizhouqizhengceyuqukucunqushizhudaojiezou

womenzainianducelue《顺shunshierwei,因yinshierdong》中zhongzhichu债券市场chuyulilvxiaxingzhouqidezhonghouduan,该gaijieduandedianxingtezhengshi:复fusuzhengcejiangbuduanjiama,长changduanlilvbodongjiada

2019年nianyilai,逆nizhouqizhengcemijichutai,金jinrongshichanghuanjingdedaoyouxiaogaishan。中zhongqilaikan,经jingjishisufengxianxianzhuxiajiang,基jibenmianquwengailvjiada。短duanqilaikan,逆nizhouqizhengcededuichongxiaoguoyuqukucunqushidiejia,在zaijingjiquwendeguochengzhong,基jibenmianjiezoujiangyousuobodong(图tu3)。基jibenmiandebodongyoujiangyingsheweiyuqichahezichanjiagedebodong

conglujingshanglaikan,一yijiduchuyunizhouqizhengcetuidongqi,经jingjiqiwenyuqichubuxingcheng,市shichangjiaoyideshifengxianpianhao,利lilvzhaichengya;二erjiduchuyuzhengceyanzhengqi,转zhuanxiangjiaoyijibenmian,经jingjijixufanghuan线xiansuoxialilvcunzaiyidingyuqichajihui;三sanjidujibenmianquwen,通tongzhangzhongshushangsheng,大daleizichanzhuanxiangzaitongzhangjiaoyi,将jiangzhengtibuliyulilvzhai

yijidu:逆nizhouqizhengceyanshengxuqiuzhicheng,多duoyinsugongzhenzhichengfengxianpianhao

nizhouqizhengcediejiajijianheqiyekaigong,将jiangxingchengqukucunqushizhongdeyicixuqiuzhicheng。对duichongmaichongdexingchengjizhibaohanruxiayinsu

1)基jijianyinsu:2018年niansijiduyilaijijianxiangmudeshenpitisu,城chengtougongsirongzihuanjinggaishan,地difangzhaifaxingtisu;

2)限xianchanyinsu:环huanbao“一yidaoqie”政zhengcedejiupian,限xianchanzhengceruoyu2018年nian,上shangyouxingyeshengchanhuodongkuozhang;

3)预yuqiyinsu:逆nizhouqizhengcegaishanyuqi,开kainianyilaiqiyedingdangaishan,或huojiangjifaqiyeshengchandongji;

4)气qihouyinsu:2019年nianqihoucengmianshuyunuandong,企qiyekaigongjiao2018年nianpianzao

qiyi:基jijianyinsu

tu4中zhong,发fagaiweiquanguotouzixiangmuzai线xianshenpijianguanpingtaishujuxianshi,2018年nian4季jiduyilaixiangmutouzizongezengsu(包baohanshenpilei、核hezhunlei、备beianlei)中zhongshutaisheng,1-2月yuezhengtichengxiangaosuzengchang。图tu5中zhong,建jianzhuyePMI新xindingdanyujianzhuyebennianxinqiandingdanhetongexiangguan,数shujuxianshi2018年nian4Q以yilaixindingdanqingkuangjiangtongbigaishan。综zonghelaikan,2018年nian4Q以yilaijijianzhengcejiama,建jianzhuyedingdandegaishan,对duiying2019年nianchunjixiangmukaigongheduixuqiuduandezhicheng

qier:限xianchanyinsu

2018年nianyijiduchuyuhuanbaoxianchanzhengcejiaoweiyangedeshiqi,环huanbaoxianchanyazhiliaoheise、有youse、化huagong、非feijinshukuangwuzhi(水shuini)等dengxingyedechanchu,叠diejiachunjietinggongyufangongpianwandengyinsu,形xingchengjiaodidejishu。图tu6-7中zhong,2018年nian1季jiduhuanbaoxianchanxingyekaigonglvyuchanchuzengsupiandi。2018年niansanjiduhuanbaoyidaoqiebeijiupianyilai,限xianchanxingyekaigonglvshangsheng,产chanchukuozhang。基jishuxiaoyingzhichengtongbishujudetongshi,产chanchukuozhangzhichengbianjixuqiu。去quchannengbeijingxia,上shangyouxingyezhengtijingqidujiaohao,企qiyeyifangmiangaishanshebeiwanchenghuanbaozhibiao,另lingyifangmianyecunzaixinjiuchannengzhihuantishengshengchanxiaolvdeyiyuan,这zheyouyidingchengdushangzhichengliaoshangyouxingyedetouzidongneng

qisan:预yuqiyinsu

2018年nian11月yueminyingqiyezuotanhuichongfenkendingwoguominyingjingjidezhongyaodiweihezuoyong,强qiangdiaodalizhichiminyingqiyefazhanzhuangda。与yucitongshi,逆nizhouqizhengcemijichutai,社shehuiyuqizhengtigaishan。图tu8中zhong,2018年nian4季jiduyilaiPMI的deshengchanjingyinghuodongyuqiyuBCI的deqiyetouziqianzhanzhishuchudihuisheng,企qiyeyuqimingxianxiufu。图tu9显xianshiqiyedingdanbianjihuisheng,但danyuancailiaoyuchanchengpinkucunxiajiang,在zaiyuqigaishandebeijingxia,叠diejiajijianfaliyijikainiandekaigongxuqiu,企qiyehuojieduanxingdekuozhangshengchan,形xingchengyigejieduanxingbukuxingwei

qisi:天tianqiyinsu

qihouhuiyingxiangkaigongjiezou,从congeryingxiangdaoduanqide经济数据bodong。图tu10与yu11展zhanshiliao2018-2019的deqihouyinsu。2018年nianbeifangweidongtianhanleng,一yijiduqihouyinsudiejiahuanbaoxianchan,开kaigongzhihou。2019年nian,北beifangnuandongyouliyuchunjitiqiankaigong。南nanfangjiangshuiliangpiangaohuifangaikaigongheshigongdejindu,过guoduoyushuiyehuidaozhinongzuowuqianshou,但danshi,由youyuyushuizhuyaoyingxianglutianzuoye,且qiefeichixuyingxiang,相xiangjiaoyuyushuidefumianzuoyong,我womenrenwei2019年niannuandongdailaidekaigongtiqiandeyingxianggengmingxian。气qihouyinsuhuoduijingjixingchengzhengxianggongxian,需xuqiutiqianshifang

3-4月yuejiaoyiluojizhanwang

zongheyishangfenxi,从congjingjijibenmiankan,一yizenizhouqizhengcegaishanyuqi,二erzejijianqidongladongdingdan,三sanzexianchanzhengcefangsonggongxianzengliangchanchu,四sizetianqiyinsuqudongtiqiankaigong,多duoyinsudiejiaxingchenggongzhen,或huojiangxingchengjingjizaihuanfuxiahuadetongshijuyougaorenxingdetezheng,从congerbufenzhengwei“快kuaisuxiahua”预yuqi,导daozhililvzhengtibucunzaiqushixingjihui。关guanzhugushibiaoxianjikechuangbanduiyujinronghuanjingdeyingxiang

yangxingxingchangyigangzailianghuijizhehuishangbiaoshi:降jiangzhunhuanyouyidingkongjian,但danbiqiqianjiniankongjianxiaohenduo。从congliudongxinglaikan,3-4月yuefen,流liudongxingdebodongxingjiangyousuoshangsheng(图tu12)。4月yuejiangzhunyufouduiliudongxingdewendingxingjiangchanshengmingxianyingxiang

likeqiangzonglizailianghuijizhehuishangbiaoshi:我womenhuankeyiyunyongxiangcunkuanzhunbeijinlv、利lilvdengshuliangxinghuojiagexinggongju,这zhebushifangsongyingen,而ershirangshitijingjigengyouxiaodidedaozhichi。价jiagexinggongjude使shiyongjiqijiezouhuiyingxianglilvdejiaoyijiezou,价jiagexinggongjude使shiyongshidiandexuanquzhideguanzhu。如ruguojiangxichuxian,则zezheyijieduandekongjianhuibiwomenmuqianzhongxingyuqideyaoshaoda

zongdelaikan,3-4月yuejibenmianwending,流liudongxingbodonghuojiangyousuojiada,债zhaishiyilinghuojiaoyi,规guibifengxian,关guanzhushuliangxinghejiagexinghuobizhengcegongjudecaozuodongxiang,在zaishouyilvdejiazhiqujianhelijiancang

erjidu:逆nizhouqizhengcechixu,需xuqiuhuiluo,市shichanghuiguiduijibenmiandeyuqichajiaoyi

congguoleiboshitichude“两lianglunfanghuan”的dekuangjiaxialaikan(《关guanyudangqianzengchang、通tongzhang、市shichang:一yigehongguanlijiekuangjia》),在zai2019年nianduodixiadiaopenghuqugaizaomubiaodebeijingxia,棚penggaihuobihuabiliyejiangyousuoxiadiao,棚penggaiduifangdichanxiaoshoudetuidongzuoyongxiajiang,地dichantouzizengsuyejiangyousuoxiaxing。海haiwaifangmian,美meiguojinruqukucunzhouqi,出chukouyalikenenghuisuiwaixuhuiluojinyibushangsheng。逆nizhouqizhengcexia,基jijianjiangyidingchengdushangduichongxiaxingyali。在zaicibeijingxia,市shichangjianghuiguidaoduijibenmiandeyuqichajiaoyi

touzizongliangcunxiaxingyali,稳wentouzidehexinshiwenzhizaoyetouzi,核hexinqudongshiqiyejiaxinxin

tu13,三sandatouzizhongdichanyujijian(不buhandianli)规guimoxiangjin。我womendui2019年niandejizhunjiasheshishifangdichantouzizengsucong9.5%回huiluozhi2%,基jijianzengsu(不buhandianli)从cong3.8%回huishengzhi10%。总zonglianglaikan,基jijianzengsudehuishengjibenduichongdichantouzizengsudehuiluo(图tu14)。综zonghelaikan,三sandatouzizhong,地dichanhejijiantouzihuxiangduichong,权quanzhongqiuhedejijian、地dichantouzizengsujiangweichipingwen,投touzizengsuxiaxingdeyalijiangyouzhizaoyetouzilaijueding(图tu15)。

tu16所suoshi,厂changfangjijianzhuwujungongmianjilingxianzhizaoyetouzi2个gejidu。图tu17所suoshi,企qiyejiaxinxinzhishulingxianzhizaoyetouzizengsu2个gejidu。稳wendingzhizaoyetouzidehexinqudongshiwendingqiyejiayuqi,改gaishanqiyejiaxinxin。改gailiangqiyedeyingshanghuanjing,加jiaqiangduiminyingqiyejiaderenshencaichananquanbaohu,减jianshuijiangfei,充chongfenjifashichangzhutidehuoliheshehuichuangzaolidengcuoshijiangshigaishanqiyejiaxinxindezhuolidian。从congshujudejingyanguilveryan,2019年nianyijiduzhizaoyetouzijiangjianding,二erjiduxiaxingyalijiangyousuojiada

zhizaoyetouzizengsuhuiluo,中zhongxiayouzhizaoxingyejiangjinruzhudongqukucunjieduan

xiangduijijianhedichan,制zhizaoyetouziduiyingdechanyelianhefugaimianjigengjia广guangfan,其qizengsudehuiluo,将jiangdaozhizhongxiayouzhizaozhongdejixie、仪yiqi、设shebeihedianzidengxingyedexuqiudehuiluo,中zhongxiayouzhizaoxingyejingqidudexiajiangyoujiangdaozhishangyouyuancailiaoxuqiudexiajiang,从congerdaozhizhizaoyebumengongzhenxiaxing

tu18中zhongzhanshiliaodaleixingyedetouzizengsu,上shangzhongxiayoudaleixingyetouzizengsuqidongshijianyousuofenhua,对duiyingtouzizengsuhuiluodeguochengyeyousuofenhua。当dangqianchuyudaleixingyetouzizengsucixiaobichang、温wenhehuiluodejieduan,而erdangshangzhongxiayouxingyetouzizengsuyizhihuiluoshi,或huojiangxingchenggongzhendexuqiushousuo

tu19展zhanshiliaozhongxiayouzhizaoxingyedechanchengpinkucunzengsu,该gaizhibiaodangqianchuyujiandinghuiluodechuduan。制zhizaoyetouzizengsudefanghuanjiangyuzhongxiayougongyezhizaoxingyezhudongqukucundeguochengxingchenggongzhen,带dailaixuqiudexiaxingyali

meiguoxiaofeixuqiuhuiluo,主zhudongqukucunzhouqikaiqi,全quanqiumaoyizengsuhuiluo

dangqianmeiguoshiyelvchuyu20年nianlaidediwei,近jinqixiaofuhuisheng(图tu20)。美meiguogerenxiaofeizhichuzengsujinqijiaomingxianxiaxing,库kucunzengsuhuojiangjiandinghuiluo,进jinruzhudongqukucunjieduan(图tu21)。从congquanqiumaoyilaikan,美meiguoxiaofeidongnengdefanghuanjiangqudongmaoyizengsudejinyibuhuiluo(图tu22)。

5-6月yuejiaoyiluoji

meiguoxiaofeixuqiudefanghuanhezhudongqukucunzhouqidekaiqijiangtuidongmeiguojingjifanghuan,出chukouyalikenenghuisuiwaixuhuiluojinyibushangsheng;随suizhuopenggaizhengcedeshousuo,地dichanxiaoshouhexinkaigongdezhongxinjiangjinyibuxiachen;制zhizaoyetouzizengsuhuiluojiangqudongzhongxiayougongyezhizaoxingyezhudongqukucun。基jijianhuishengjiangshiweiyideduichong。经jingjikenengjixuchuyu2018年nianH2以yilaidedierlunfanghuanzhizhong(2018年nianQ3-Q4是shidiyilun;2019年nianQ1-Q2是shidierlun)。

nizhouqizhengce(如rujijianyingxiangzhubuluodi)将jiangyuwaixuhuiluo、棚penggaishousuo、降jiangxiyuqigongtongqudongjiaoyi。一yijidunizhouqizhengcetuigaofengxianpianhaohou,二erjiduhuojiangcunzaiyuqichaqudongdejiaoyijihui

sanjidu: 经jingjiqiwen,通tongzhangzhongshutaisheng,基jibenmianqudongzaitongzhangjiaoyi

womenqianqibaogaozongjiejingjiqiwendesigezhuyaoliantiao(《经jingjizhouqijieduanyu股票市场》):一yi)社sherongyiyuquniandiqiwen,今jinnianchuyoujinyibukuozhang,经jingyanshangxinyongchudilingxianyujingjichudilianggejiduzuoyou;二er)汽qichelingshouduanyibantongbuyuM1,零lingshouduanjiandiyiweizhuoduixiaofeidetuoleinizhuan,下xiabannianchukenenghuiyoupifaduanjiandi;三san)从congdifangzhaijiezoukan,地difangjijianyiyuquniandiqidong,今jinnianchujinyibujiakuai,向xianggongyebumenchuandidexiaoyinghuizaihouxuerzhisangejiduzhubuchengxian;四si)从congdichanduanzhouqijibenguilvkan,我womenqingxiangyurenweidichanxiaoshouzengsudibukenengyuQ2出chuxian。我womenqingxiangyurenwei:Q2末mohuoQ3初chukenengshijingjicong“回huiluohouqi”进jinyibuxiang“复fusuqianqi”过guodudefenjie线xian

tu23-25中zhong,我womencesuanliaobutongyuqizhixiadezhurou、螺luowengangheyuanyoudejiagezengsu,综zonghelaikan,二erjidujiaodagailvjiangshibenlunzhouqidetongzhangdibu。图tu26中zhong,社sherongyuM2增zengsuchasuodaibiaodehuobigongxuquekouyushinianguozhaizoushicunzaijiaohaodexiangguanxing,且qieqianzhelingxianyue6个geyue,从congjingyanguilvlaikanerjidumojiangshibenlunzhouqixialilvdedidian

zonghelaikan,三sanjidudehongguanhuanjingbiaoxianwei:经jingjiqiwen,通tongzhangpingtaitaishengfengxian。这zhejiangqudongzaitongzhangjiaoyi,利lilvzhongshujiangyousuohuisheng

lilvjiaoyiluojideyanyi

2019年nianyilai,1-2月yueshichangjiaoyidehexinshifengxianpianhao,市shichangduiweilaidefengxianyuqifashengliaomingxiangaibian。我womenrenweiweilaidaleizichandeyanyiluojijiangchuxianbianjibianhua,资zichanjiagedequdongluojijiangcongfengxianpianhaoqiehuanzhijibenmian。从conglujingshanglaikan,一yijiduchuyunizhouqizhengcetuidongqi,经jingjiqiwenyuqichubuxingcheng,市shichangjiaoyideshifengxianpianhao,利lilvzhaichengya;二erjiduchuyuzhengceyanzhengqi,转zhuanxiangjiaoyijibenmian,经jingjijixufanghuan线xiansuoxialilvcunzaiyidingyuqichajihui;三sanjidujibenmianquwen,通tongzhangzhongshushangsheng,大daleizichanzhuanxiangzaitongzhangjiaoyi,将jiangzhengtibuliyulilvzhai。具jutilaikan

3-4月yue:基jibenmianwending,流liudongxingbodonghuojiangyousuojiada,关guanzhugushibiaoxianhekechuangbanduiyujinronghuanjingdeyingxiang,以yijishuliangxinghejiagexinghuobizhengcegongjudecaozuodongxiang。债zhaishiyilinghuoguanlijiuqi,规guibifengxian,在zaishouyilvdejiazhiqujianhelipeizhi

5-6月yue:两lianglunfanghuankuangjiaxia,逆nizhouqizhengce(如rujijianyingxiangzhubuluodi)将jiangyuwaixuhuiluo、棚penggaishousuo、降jiangxiyuqigongtongqudongjiaoyi。一yijidunizhouqizhengcetuigaofengxianpianhaohou,二erjiduhuojiangcunzaiyuqichaqudongdejiaoyijihui

3季jidu:经jingjiqiwen,通tongzhangzhongshutaisheng,基jibenmianqudongzaitongzhangjiaoyi,利lilvzhongshujiangyousuohuisheng

fengxiantishi

1)货huobizhengcekuansongchaoyuqi;

2)经jingjixiaxingyalichaoyuqi;

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