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对比中美银行业资产负债收入结构,中国银行业将如何发展?

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“银行家杂志”,作者:韩军伟 周琼。从1978年改革开放至今,中国银行业从发展特征上可大致分为三个阶段。1978~2003年是我国现代银行体系建立与初步发展期,主要的国有银行和股份制银行相继成立,资产规模快速增长,但积累了大量不良资产….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“银yinxingjiazazhi”,作zuozhe:韩hanjunweizhouqiong

cong1978年niangaigekaifangzhijin,中zhongguoyinxingyecongfazhantezhengshangkedazhifenweisangejieduan。1978~2003年nianshiwoguoxiandaiyinxingtixijianliyuchubufazhanqi,主zhuyaodeguoyouyinxinghegufenzhiyinxingxiangjichengli,资zichanguimokuaisuzengchang,但danjileiliaodaliangbuliangzichan,经jingjixiaoyibujia。2003~2013年nianshishangyeyinxingfazhande“黄huangjinshinian”,资zichanguimojixukuaisukuozhang,不buliangdaikuandedaobaolihuajie,利lirunmengzeng,利lilvshichanghuashenrutuijin。2014年nianzhijinjinruzhuanxingfazhan、提tizhizengxiaoqi,银yinxingyezichan、利lirunzengsufanghuan。随suizhuojingjijinru“新xinchangtai”和heyougaosuzengchangjieduanzhuanxianggaozhiliangfazhanjieduan,2014 年nianyinxingyelirunyouguoqudeliangweishuzengchangjiangzhigeweishuzengchang,2017年nianzichanguimoyejiangzhigeweishuzengchang。商shangyeyinxingdezichanfuzhaibiao、收shourujiegouzaiciguochengzhongsuizhifashengliaojiaoweimingxiandebianhua

meiguoyinxingyezaiqijinbainiandefazhanlichengzhong,经jingliliaoduolunjingjizhouqihejianguanhuanjingdebianhua,尤youqishi20世shiji70年niandaiyilai,随suizhuolilvshichanghuagaigedewancheng、分fenyejingyingxianghunyejingyingdezhuanbian,美meiguoshangyeyinxingbeidonghuozhezhudongdidiaozhengliaozichanhefuzhaijiegou,积jileiliaofengfudejingyanhejiaoxun。本benwenyanjiuliao20世shiji70年niandaiyilaimeiguoyinxingyezichanfuzhaishourujiegoudebianhua,以yiqiweiwoguoyinxingyeweilaifazhantigongyidingdejiejian,如ruwuteshushuoming,数shujulaiyuanyuFDIC和heWind。

zichanjiegou

zhongmeiyinxingyezichanjiegoujunyifeijinrongqiyehejumindaikuanweizhu,且qiezhanbixiangdang。美meiguoyinxingyezichanzhong,非feijinrongqiyehejumindaikuanzhanbijiaoweiwending,1970~2017年nianbaochizai50%至zhi60%之zhijian;我woguoyinxingyefeijinrongqiyehejumindaikuanzhanzichandebizhongyejiaoweiwending,2005~2017年nianbaochizai50%至zhi55%之zhijian。我woguoyinxingyezichanzhongdaikuanzhanbi,从cong2005年nian55.2% 的degaodianxiajiangdao2016年nian48.6%的dedidian。2017年nian,随suizhuobiaowaizichandehuibiao,贷daikuanzhanbishangshengdao51.6%,略luediyumeiguo(54.3%)。在zaiyanjianguan、要yaoqiuyinxingye“回huiguibenyuan”的dehuanjingxia,未weilaiyinxingyedaikuanzhanbikenenghuanjiangyousuotisheng。(见jiantu1、图tu2)

meiguoyinxingyezichanjiegoubianhuachengxianjieduanxingtezheng。第diyijieduanwei20 世shiji70年niandaidao80年niandaidezhongqi,该gaishiqichuyuyangedefenyejianguanjieduan, 并bingqiechuyulilvshichanghuajinchengzhong,贷daikuan、有youjiazhengquan、现xianjinjitongyecunfangdengzichandejiegoujibenwending。第dierjieduanwei20世shiji80年niandaizhongqidao2007 年niancidaiweijibaofa。随suizhuodaikuanlilvshangxiandequxiao,贷daikuanlilvnenggougengjiajishidisuishichanglilvbiandong,1971~1980年nian,FDIC银yinxingpingjundaikuanlilvcong7.37%上shangshengzhi13.12%。贷daikuanlilvdeshangsheng使shidaikuanzhanbiyouliaojiaodatigao,1984年nianbi1983年niantigaoliao3.8个gebaifendian,1989年niandadao60.8% 的dezuigaodian。净jingxichayesuizhitigao,由you1984年nianyijidude2.84%提tigaozhi1994年niansanjidude4.22%,达dadaojin30年nianlaizuigao。随suizhuo1999年nianhunyejingyingdekaishi,美meiguoyinxingyezichanzhong,贷daikuanheyoujiazhengquanzhanbisuiyoubodong, 但danjibenbaochiwending,现xianjinjitongyecunfangdezhanbibuduanxiajiang。第disangejieduanweicidaiweijihouzhijin,美meiguoyinxingyekaizhanliaodaguimodequgangganhuahuodong, 贷daikuanzhanbibuduanxiajiang,有youjiazhengquan、现xianjinjitongyecunfangdebizhongbuduantigao,净jingxichabuduanxiajiang,由you2010年nianerjidude3.76%降jiangzhi2015年nianyijidude3.02%。受shoujingjifusudedaidong,2015年niandaikuanzhanbikaishihuisheng,净jingxichayekaishibuduantigaozhi2017年niansanjidude3.30%。从congjingxichabianhualaikan,美meiguoyinxingyejingxichayizhigaoyuwoguo,且qiezaililvshichanghuazhihouwoguoyinxingyejingxichadazhichengxianbodongxiajiangtaishi

woguoyinxingyetongyezichanzhanbijinglikuaisushangshenghouxiajiang,美meiguotongyedaikuanzhanbijiaodi。随suizhuojinrongjigoutongyeyewudexingqi,我woguoyinxingyejinrongjigoudetongyezhaiquanheduiqitajinrongqiyezhaiquanzhanbiyou2005年niande12.2%升shengzhi2016年niande25.2%,为wei2005年nianyilaizuigaodian(占zhanbitigaodebufenyuanyinyezaiyu2015年nianrenminyinxingdaikuantongjikoujingdebianhua,增zengjialiaochaifanggeifeiyinxingyejinrongjigoudekuanxiang,当dangnianxinzeng12.28万wan亿yiyuandaikuanzhong,非feiyinxingyejinrongjigoudaikuanwei0.85万wan亿yiyuan)。2014年nianyinjianhuikaishiguifantongyeyewu, 2017开kaizhan“三sansansishi”专zhuanxiangzhilihuodong,受shouciyingxiang,2017年nianmogaizhibiaojiangzhi23.1%。美meiguoyinxingyefenyejianguanshiqidetongyedaikuanzhanbigaoyuhunyejianguanshiqi,但danyizhijiaodi,1970~2006年nianjunweichaoguo5%。2017 年nian,美meiguoyinxingyetongyedaikuanyijiangzhi0.5%,比bi2006年nianxiajiang0.8个gebaifendian。美meiguotongyeyewuzhanbijiaodideyuanyin,可kenengzaiyuyizichanzhengquanhuadebiaozhunhuatouziyidingchengdushangdaitiliaotongyeyewu。美meiguozichanzhengquanhuachanpinshi“影yingziyinxing”的dezhuyaodaibiao,有youjiazhengquanshimeiguoshangyeyinxingchudaikuanzhiwaidezhongyaozichan,其qizhanbiyizhizai20%左zuoyou,2007年nianhe2008年nianzhanbijiaodi(约yuewei14%),但danjinrongweijiyihouzhanbiyoutishengdaoliao20%以yishang

2008年nianyihou,美meiguoduigongdaikuanzhanbibuduantigao,我woguoduigongdaikuanzhanbibuduanxiajiang。从cong1987年niankaishi,美meiguogerendaikuanzhanzongzichandebizhongkuaisutigao,到dao1989年niangaoyuduigongdaikuanzhanbi,2005年niandadaocidaiweijiqianzuigaodian32.4%(当dangnianduigongdaikuanzhanbi23.9%)。次cidaiweijihou,美meiguodejuminbumenjingliliaoquganggan,个gerendaikuanzhanbibuduanxiajiang,到dao2017 年nianwei23.8%。美meiguoduigongdaikuanzhanbizi1989年niankaishidiyugerendaikuan,但danzai2008年nianjinrongweijihou,美meiguoduigongdaikuanzhanbikaishihuanmantigao,2015 年nianfanchaogerendaikuanzhanbi,到dao2017年niandadao24.4%。与yumeiguoxiangbi,从congjiegoushangkan,我woguofeijinrongleidaikuanyiduigongdaikuanweizhu,到dao2017年nianzhanbiwei35.6%,高gaoyugerendaikuanjin20个gebaifendian。从congqushishangkan,我woguogerendaikuancong2005年nianzhanzongzichande6%提tigaodao2017年niande16%,对duigongdaikuanzhanbizecong49%下xiajiangdao36%。

woguoyinxingyegerenzhufangdaikuanzhangerendaikuandebizhongyichaoguomeiguo。利lilvshichanghuawanchengyihou,美meiguogerenzhufangdaikuanzhangerendaikuandebizhongkaishikuaisushangsheng,从cong1987年niande34%提tigaodao1988年niande61%,到dao2007年nianyizhibaochizai60%左zuoyou。原yuanyinzaiyuyouzhidaxingqiyetigaozhijierongzibizhong,银yinxingzhuanerquxunzhaoxindedaikuanxuqiu,房fangdaizuoweifengxianjiaoxiaodeyewu,成chengweishangyeyinxingdexinyewuzengchangdian。从cong2008年niancidaiweijikaishi,房fangdaizhanbiyousuoxiahua,到dao2017年nianwei49.7%。在zaiguoqudeshijinianzhong,我woguoyinxingyegerenzhufangdaikuanyewuqudeliaohendadefazhan,2008年nianzhangerendaikuandebizhongwei52.2%,2009年niandadao58.2%的degaodian,到dao2017年nianjiangzhi54.1%。

fuzhaijiegou

zhongmeiyinxingyefuzhaijiegoujunyicunkuanweizhu。2016年nian,美meiguoyinxingyefuzhaizhong,个gerenjiqiyecunkuansuozhandebiliwei79.3%,为wei1970年nianyilaizuigao;借jieruzijinzhanbiwei8.8%,次cijizhaiwuzhanbiwei0.6%。我woguoyinxingyefuzhaizhong,居juminheqiyecunkuan2005~2017年nianjunchaoguo60%。2017年nian, 我woguoqitacunkuanxinggongsifuzhaizhong,对duifeijinrongjigoujizhuhufuzhaizhanbiwei61.3%,对duiyangxingfuzhaizhanbi4.2%,同tongyefuzhaizhanbi5.1%,对duiqitajinrongqiyefuzhaizhanbi6.7%,发行债券zhanbiwei9.0%。

meiguoyinxingyegerenheqiyecunkuanzhanbibianhuatixianchuliaojieduanxingtezheng。第diyigejieduanwei20世shiji70年niandai,在zaililvshichanghuachuqi,个gerenheqiyecunkuanzhanzongfuzhaidebizhongbuduanxiajiang,由you1970年niande74.7%降jiangzhi1974年niande61.8%。第diergejieduanwei20世shiji80年niandaidao90年niandai,随suizhuolilvshichanghuadetuijin,银yinxingzhubutigaoshenzhiquxiaolilvshangxian,使shideyinxingcunkuanxiangduiyuxianjinhezibenshichangdexiyinliyousuotigao,促cujinliaoshangyeyinxingxicun,个gerenheqiyecunkuanzhanzongfuzhaidebizhongyou1980年niande64.0%缓huanmantigaozhi1992年niande74.4%。第disangejieduanwei20世shiji90年niandaidao2008年niancidaiweijibaofa, 随suizhuofenyejingyingguanzhidefeichu,金jinrongchuangxindailailiaoduoyanghuadegerenheqiyetouziqudao,导daozhichuxuyiyuanxiajiang,个gerenheqiyecunkuanzhanzongfuzhaidebizhongyou1992年niande74.4%降jiangzhi2008年niande64.9%。第disigejieduanweicidaiweijihouzhijin,个gerenheqiyecunkuanzhanzongfuzhaidebizhongbuduantigaozhi2017年niande80%左zuoyou。一yifangmian,投touzileizichandedafusuoshui,导daozhijumingengyuanchiyoudifengxiandecunkuanzichan。另lingyifangmian,次cidaiweijicu使shimeiguoshangyeyinxinghuiguichuantongyewu,重zhongfanyicunkuanzuoweizhuyaozijinlaiyuandechuantongjingyingmoshi

woguoyinxingyejuminheqiyecunkuanzhanbizhunianxiajiang,金jinrongjigouzhijiandeguanlianxingtigao。2005~2017年nian,我woguojuminheqiyecunkuanzhanyinxingzongfuzhaidebizhongyou75.3%降jiangzhi61.3%。综zongheshichangguandian,一yishiyulilvshichanghua、互hulianwangjinrongdefazhanxiangguan,二ershiyuyinxingyejianguangaigeyouguan,三sanshiyushitijingjibujingqiyouguan。与yucitongshi,出chuyujianshaozibenzhanyong、规guibishenshenjianguanguiding、突tupofenyejianguandengxuyao,银yinxingyutongye、信xintuo、保baoxian、证zhengquandengjigoudelianxiyuelaiyuemiqie,同tongyefuzhaiheduiqitajinrongqiyefuzhaizhanzongfuzhaidebizhongyou2005年niande6.7%升shengzhi2015年niande14.4%,占zhanbitigaodebufenyuanyinyezaiyu2015年nianrenminyinxingcunkuantongjikoujingdebianhua,增zengjialiaofeiyinxingyejinrongjigoucunfangkuanxiang,当dangnianxinzeng21.84万wan亿yiyuancunkuanzhong,非feiyinxingyejinrongjigoucunkuan12.76万wan亿yiyuan。2017年nianyilai,随suizhuotongyeyewudeguifanhezhili,银yinxingyetongyefuzhaiheduiqitajinrongqiyefuzhaizhanbijiangzhi11.8%,仍rengbi2005年niantigaoliao5.1个gebaifendian。与yumeiguogerenheqiyecunkuanzhanbibianhuaxiangbi,我woguoyinxingyejuminheqiyecunkuanzhanbibianhuahuanchuyumeiguodiyijieduanxiangdierjieduanguodudeshiqi。随suizhuolilvshichanghuadewancheng,在zaiyanjianguandehuanjingxia,未weilaijinianjuminheqiyecunkuanzhanbihuoyoutisheng

meiguoyinxingyehuoqicunkuanzhanbixianxiajianghouhuisheng,储chuxucunkuanchixutigao,定dingqicunkuanmingxianxiajiang。20世shiji70年niandaichumeiguolilvshichanghuakaishi, 美meiguoyinxingyehuoqicunkuanzhanbikaishixiajiang,由you1970年niande51%降jiangzhi1980年niande36%。随suizhuo20世shiji80年niandaililvshichanghuadewancheng,商shangyeyinxingdedichengbencunkuanbuduanxianggaochengbencunkuanzhuanhuan,活huoqicunkuanzhanbimingxianxiajiang,到dao2007 年nianyijiangzhi9%。次cidaiweijiyihou,美meiguoshangyeyinxingdingqicunkuanzhanbidafuxiajiang,由you2009年niande29%降jiangzhi2017年niande14%,活huoqicunkuanzhanbiyousuotigao,由you2009年niande10%升shengzhi2017年niande15%,储chuxucunkuanzhanbidafushangsheng,由you2009年niande61%升shengzhi2017年niande71%。自zi2013年nian5月yueyilai,美meiguoshangyeyinxinghuoqicunkuanlixihendi(约yuewei0.01%),储chuxucunkuanlilvjunzhiwendingzai0.1%左zuoyou,部bufenyinxingchuxucunkuanlilvchaoguo2%,所suoyiqihuoqicunkuanzhanbihendi,储chuxucunkuanzhanbijiaogao。此ciwai,美meiguojumintouzixuqiuduyifeicunkuanmanzu,因yincidingqicunkuanzhanbijiaodi。(见jianbiao1)

woguojumincunkuanzengsuhezhanbibodongxiajiang,对duigongcunkuanzhanbizengda。2008年nianyihou,我woguojumincunkuanzengsuchengzhujianfanghuanqushi,2017年nianwei7.6%,比bi2008年nianxiajiangliao19个gebaifendian。但dan2018年nian11月yuejumincunkuantongbizengchang10.7%,主zhuyaoshishouziguanxinguiyingxiang,理licaizengsuxiajiang,银yinxingtongguojiegouxingcunkuanhedingqicunkuanlilvshangfuxishouzijin。从congzhanbilaikan,近jinnianlai,我woguojumincunkuanzhancunkuandebizhongbuduanxiajiang,2017年nianwei42.4%,较jiao2005年nianxiajiangliao7.6个gebaifendian。对duigongcunkuandezhanbibuduanshangsheng,2017年nianwei51.8%,较jiao2005年niantigaoliao6.3个gebaifendian。但dan2018年nian11月yueduigongcunkuanzhanbixiajiangzhi50.1%,主zhuyaoshifeijinrongqiyejingyingchuxiankunnan,流liudongzijinjianshao

jumincunkuanxiajiangdeyuanyinkenengyousan:一yishifangchanfenliu。根genju西xinancaijingdaxuezhongguojiatingjinrongdiaochayuyanjiuzhongxindeshuju,2016年nianwoguojiatingfangchanzhanjiatingzichandebizhongwei68.8%,比bi2015年niantigaoliao3.5个gebaifendian。随suizhuo2017年nianyixiliefangdichandiaokongcuoshideshishi,这zhexiezijinbeiguhuazailiaofangdichanshichangzhong。二ershiqitajinrongzichanfenliu。从congwoguojuminjinrongzichanjiegoubianhuaqushilaikan,居juminxunqiugenggaojinrongzichanshouyideqingxiangmingxianshangsheng, 2005~2014年nian,现xianjinjicunkuanzhanbichuyuxiajiangqushi,债zhaiquan、股gupiaohejijinzhujianchengweijuminpeizhijinrongzichandexinqudao。近jinliangnian,资zibenshichanghuinuanyijililvshichanghua、金jinrongtuomei、互hulianwangjinrongchanpindeyingxiangjiasuliaozheyiqushidefazhan。三sanshichanghuanzhaiwu。近jinnianlai,我woguojumingangganlvkuaisutigao。据juBIS统tongji,2017年nianmowoguojumingangganlvda48.4%,比bi2008年niantigaoliao30.5个gebaifendian。居juminganggandetigaojiyaliaojumincunkuandezengchangkongjian,居jumincunkuanzhuanhuaweifangdichanqiyezhaiwudebufen,会huitongguofangdichanqiyeyicunkuandexingshiliurudaoyinxing,转zhuanhuaweiqiyecunkuan

woguoyinxingyehuoqicunkuanzhanbixianshenghoujiang。与yumeiguodechuxucunkuanbianhuaxiangsi,在zaiwoguolilvshichanghuatuijindeguochengzhong,也yechuxianliaohuoqicunkuanxiangdingqicunkuanzhuanhuadeshiqi,活huoqicunkuanzhanbiyou2010年niande43%降jiangzhi2015年niande28%,其qizhongtongqigerencunkuandehuoqizhanbiyou40.3%降jiangzhi37.2%,公gongsicunkuandehuoqizhanbiyou60.3%降jiangzhi40.6%。2015年nianyilai,存cunkuanlilvshangxianzhujianfangkai,但danhuanyoushichanglilvdingjiazilvjizhiyueshu。银yinxingdingqicunkuanyuelaiyueduodiyitiqianzhiqushikaodangjixilaijianguliudongxingyushouyilv,和hehuoqicunkuandechabiesuoxiao。如ruqiansuoshu,企qiyeduicunkuandegongxianbuduanjiada, 企qiyechiyouhuoqicunkuandechengbenjiangdi,加jiazhijingjibuzhendaozhiqiyechibidaitouzideqingxiang,2016年nianhe2017年nianhuoqicunkuanzhanbikaishihuisheng,2017年nianwei29.6%,其qizhonggerencunkuandehuoqizhanbiyou2015年niande37.2%升shengzhi2017年niande38.6%,同tongqigongsicunkuandehuoqizhanbiyou40.6%升shengzhi43.9%。

congwoguoqingkuanglaikan,存cunkuanrengranshiwoguojuminzuizhuyaodejinrongzichan, 而erqiejingjixiaxingyalijiada,企qiyechibidaitouzideqingxianggengjiamingxian,存cunkuanjiagerengranshijuedingjuminheqiyepeizhijinrongzichandezhuyaojuedingyinsu。在zaidangqiancunkuanzengsuxiahua、存cunkuanjingzhengriyijiliedexingshixia,定dingqicunkuanlilvshangfufudujiaoda,导daozhi2018年nianyilaiwoguodingqicunkuanzhanbiyouliaoyidingtigao,个gerencunkuandedingqizhanbiyou2017年niande61.4%升shengzhi2018年nian11月yuede63.2%,同tongqigongsicunkuandedingqizhanbiyou56.1%升shengzhi59.0%。但dangenju20世shiji80年niandaiyilaimeiguohuoqihechuxucunkuandebianhuaqingkuang,结jiehemuqianwoguojingjixingshi、居juminjinrongzichanpeizhiqushi,以yijiwoguoshangyeyinxingxishoucunkuandeyali,短duanqineijiagerengranshijuedingcunkuandezhuyaoyinsu,定dingqicunkuanzhanbikenengzaiduanqineixiaofutigao,但dansuizhuoqitazichanpeizhixingshidefazhan,以yijijingjixianghaohouqiyeduiyuliudongxingdekaoliang,我woguoyinxingyehuoqicunkuanzhanbidagailvhuichengzhengtishangshengqushi。(见jiantu3)

shourujiegou

zhongmeiyinxingyeshourujunyijinglixishouruweizhu,美meiguofeixishourugaoyuwoguo。从congshouruzhanbilaikan,2017年nian,美meiguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhanbiwei34.0%,高gaoyuwoguo22.7%的deshuiping。大dazhongxingyinxingfeilixishouruzhanbigenggao,如rumeiguosidayinxingfeilixishouruzhanbi45%,我woguosidayinxingwei26%。总zongtilaikan,虽suiranmeiguoshangyeyinxingshixianliaozonghehuajingying,但danlixishouruyiranshishangyeyinxingdezhuyaoshourulaiyuan,盈yinglimoshimeiyoufashenggenbengaibian。从congfazhanqushishanglaikan,利lilvshichanghuaqijian,美meiguoyinxingyedefeilixishourumeiyoumingxiantigao。20世shiji80年niandaililvshichanghuawanchengyihou,美meiguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhanbikaishitigao,尤youqishi20世shiji90年niandaiyihou,受shouhunyejingying、金jinrongtuomeiheyinxingyejingzhengjiajudeyingxiang,非feilixishouruzhanbidafutisheng,2003年niandadaoliao43.8%的defengzhi。2008年niancidaiweijibaofa, 美meiguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhanbikaishixiajiang。我woguoyinxingyezaifeilixishourufangmiandeyingshounengliyuanburumeiguoyinxingye。近jinnianlai,我woguoshangyeyinxingyezaijijidijinxingzhuanxingfazhan,非feilixishouruzhanbicong2010年niande17.5%快kuaisushangshengdao2016年nian23.8%,2017年nianlueyouxiajiang,为wei22.7%。对duibifenyejianguanshiqimeiguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhanbidebianhuaguocheng,我woguoshangyeyinxingyewufazhanchuyumeiguolilvshichanghuawanchengzhihoudeyiduanshiqi,未weilaiwoguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhanbihuanhuichengxianjixutigaozhishi,但danyouyujianguanduiyinxingshouqushouxufeihehunyejingyingdexianzhi,非feilixishouruzhanbikenengbuhuikuaisutigao。(见jiantu4)

woguoyinxingyedaikuanlixishouruzhanlixishourudebizhongdiyumeiguo,且qiebuduanxiajiang。根genju16家jiazhuyaoshangshiyinxingnianbaoshuju,2017年niandaikuanlixishouruzhanlixishourudebizhongwei62.3%,比bi2016年nianxiajiangliao0.1个gebaifendian,比bimeiguoshangyeyinxingdi17.1个gebaifendian。从congmeiguo1970年nianyilaideshujukan,美meiguoshangyeyinxingyejingliliaolilvshichanghuawanchengyihou,贷daikuanlixishouruzhanbixiajiangdejieduan,但danyikaozichan、负fuzhaijiegoudediaozheng,贷daikuanlixishouruzhanbizai20世shiji80年niandaizhongqiyihoudedaoliaoyouxiaotisheng,即ji使shizaihunyejingyingshiqi, 也yenengbaochishangzhangtaishi。尤youqishicidaiweijiyihou,美meiguoshangyeyinxingxiangchuantongyewuhuigui,贷daikuanlixizhanlixishourudebizhongbuduantigao

meiguoyinxingyefeilixishourugengjiaduoyuanhua。从cong2017年niandeshujulaikan, 美meiguoyinxingyefeilixishouruchengxianduoyuanhuazuhezhuangtai。传chuantongdexintuoyewu、存cunkuanzhanghufuwushouruzhanbijiaogao,分fenbiewei14.0%和he14.1%,交jiaoyizhanghuzhanbiwei9.9%,附fujiazhijiaogaodezichanzhengquanhua、保baoxianyewu、投touziyinxingzhanbijiaodi,分fenbiewei0.5%、1.5%和he5.0%,包baokuozichanguanli、信xinyongkadengyewushourudefuwufeizhanbiwei3.7%。由youcikejian,美meiguoshangyeyinxingzhongjianyewubijiaozhuzhongkehufuwu,经jingyingfanweigeng广guang。我woguoyinxingyefeilixishouruzhong,银yinxingkaleiyewu、结jiesuanyewudengchuantongzhongjianyewuyiranchuyujueduilingxianshuiping,投touxing、理licai、托tuoguandengxinxingzhongjianyewudeqingzichan、轻qingzibentezhengqiheliaoshangyeyinxingdezhuanxingfangxiang,已yizhujianchengweishangyeyinxingzhongjianyewudezhuolidianhequdongli。由youyujianguanguidingquxiaozantingshangyeyinxingbufenjichujinrongfuwushoufei,银yinxingyeshouxufei、结jiesuanyewushourujianghuijianshao,理licai、托tuoguanjiqitashoutuoyewuzhujianchengweigexingfeilixishourufazhandezhongdianlingyu。(见jiantu5、图tu6)

duiceyujianyi

zongtilaikan,我woguoyinxingyedezichanjiegou、负fuzhaijiegouheshourujiegou, 与yumeiguofenyejianguanshiqililvshichanghuagaigejieduanbijiaoxiangsi。结jiehemeiguoyinxingyezichanfuzhaijiegoubianhuahewoguoyinxingyedangqiandefazhanqushi,未weilaishangyeyinxingdezichanfuzhaijiegoukenenghuichuxianyixiajigequshi:第diyi,银yinxingzaishehuirongzizhongdediweixiajiang,从congzichanhefuzhaiduandushoudaojiya,大daqiyetongguojinrongshichangzhijierongzi,个gerendaikuanzhandaikuanbizhongshangsheng,银yinxingzichanguimozengsujiangdi,居juminjinrongzichanduoyuanhua,银yinxingfuzhaizengchanggengjiakunnan。第dier, 居juminheqiyecunkuanzhanfuzhaidebizhongjiangyousuotigao,居jumincunkuanzhanbikenengjixuxiajiang,企qiyecunkuanduicunkuandegongxianjiangyuelaiyueda,活huoqicunkuanzhanbijiangjixutigao。第disan,非feilixishouruzhanbijianghuijixutigao。由youci,未weilaishangyeyinxingyewufazhanyaojiaqiangzichanfuzhaiguanli,推tuijinzonghehuajingying,提tishengfuwuzhiliang

yishizichanyewuhuiguibenyuan。未weilai,随suizhuowoguolilvshichanghuadewanchengheduocengcizibenshichangdewanshan,大daxingqiyezhijierongzizhanbijiangtigao,商shangyeyinxingbixupinghengdaikuanshouyihefengxianpianhao,寻xunzhaoxindeyewuzengchangdian。一yifangmian,紧jinzhuaguojiazhanluejiyu,围weiraojianshexiandaihuajingjitixi,加jiadaduizhongxiaoqiyedezhicheng,服fuwushitijingjifazhan。另lingyifangmian,更gengjiazhongshifazhangerendaikuanyewu。从congmeiguodefazhanjingyanlaikan,个gerendaikuanjianghegongsidaikuanbingjiaqiqu。不buguo,我woguojumingangganlvsuirandiyuandiyumeiguo(2017年nianmowei78.0%),但danjinnianlaitigaojiaokuai,也yecunzaizhaiwufengxian。为weibimianzhongdaomeiguoguoduxiangcijikehufafangdaikuanxingchengdefengxian,也yexuyaoshenshenquedingdiyalvshangxian,加jiaqiangduikehuhuankuannengli、收shouruhuandaibidengzhibiaodekaochayujiankong。此ciwai,在zaiqiangjianguandehuanjingxia,同tongyeyewujiyaoyikehuweizhongxinzhudongchuangxinchanpinhefuwumoshi,调diaozhengyewujiegou,适shidangliyongjinrongshichangtuozhanfuzhaiduanhezichanduan,也yeyaobimianzijinkongzhuan、层cengcengqiantao,回huiguiyinxingliudongxingguanlihezichanfuzhaiguanlizhongyaoshouduandebenyuan

ershizhuoliyouhuacunkuanjiegou。从congmeiguojingyankan,客kehudetouzixuqiujiangyuelaiyueduoditongguogupiao、债zhaiquan、基jijin、保baoxiandengchanpindedaomanzu。银yinxingjiucunkuanfazhancunkuanjianggengjiakunnan,银yinxingzaizhuolixiyincunkuan(尤youqishiqiyecunkuan)、优youhuacunkuanjiegou、降jiangdizijinchengbendetongshi,一yifangmianyaotongguogongnengqiangda、客kehutiyanjiadexitongtisheng线xianshang线xianxiayitihuafuwunengli,以yishengtaiquanjianshe、交jiaoyiyinxingyewumanzukehujiaoyixingxuqiu,培peiyanghexinjiesuankehuqun,增zengqiangkehuzhanxing,通tongguoxitongpingtairongruheshendufuwukehuyingyunzijinbihuanxiyinxingwaizijinliuru,提tigaodaikuandecunkuanpaishengnengli;另lingyifangmianyaofazhanzichanguanlihecaifuguanliyewu,重zhongshiAUM而erfeidanyicunkuan,从congweikehuchuangzaojiazhizhonghuodekehuzijinchendian,满manzukehutouzixingxuqiu

sanshiwentuotuijinzonghehuajingying。从congmeiguoyinxingyefazhanlichenglaikan,坚jianchishangyeyinxingcundaikuanbenyuanjichushangshidangzonghehuajingyingnenggoutigaoshangyeyinxingdeyinglinenglihediyufengxiannengli,但danguoducanyufuzayanshengpintouzidengxingweiyekenengzengjiayinxingmianlindefengxian。2006年nian,花huaqiyinxingtouzishouru、保baoxianshourujihuzhandaofeilixishourudeyiban,收shourujiegouduoyuanhuachengdujiaogao,但danzaijinrongweijizhongshoudeyingxiangyezuida。富fuguoyinxingyishouxufeiheyongjinshouruweizhudefeilixishourujiegou,使shiqizaijinrongweijizhongyingxiangzuixiao。我woguoyinxingyejingliliao“黄huangjinshinian”的decufangshifazhanzhihou,随suizhuogaozhiliangfazhangejuxiajingjiwenbufazhantaishideyanxu,我woguoyinxingyezichanlirunlvbuduanxiajiang,更gengxuyaowenbutuijinzonghehuajingying。商shangyeyinxingyaojiakuaidajianzonghejinrongfuwupingtai,为weikehutigong“一yizhanshi”金jinrongfuwu,降jiangdishitijingjirongzichengben, 提tigaofuwushitijingjixiaolv。在zaituijinzonghehuajingyingdeguochengzhong,随suizhuoyinxingbuduanjinruxindelingyu,也yehuizengjiayewujingyingdefengxian,引yinfajinrongluanxiang。因yinci,推tuidongzonghehuajingying,商shangyeyinxinghuanxutigaoheguiyishi,健jianquanfengxianguanlitixi


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