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国盛证券熊园:寻找超预期 2019年可以乐观一点

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“熊园观察”,作者:熊园。3月17日,国盛证券首席宏观分析师熊园博士,做客今日头条财经微访谈《大咖策略会》栏目,前瞻中国宏观大势,解读经济金融数据。问:熊老师你好,欢迎做客今日头条财经微访谈《大咖策略会》栏目,能否简单介绍下….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“熊xiongyuanguancha”,作zuozhe:熊xiongyuan

3月yue17日ri,国guoshengzhengquanshouxihongguanfenxishixiongyuanboshi,做zuokejinritoutiaocaijingwei访fangtan《大dakaceluehui》栏lanmu,前qianzhanzhongguohongguandashi,解jiedujingjijinrongshuju

wen:熊xionglaoshinihao,欢huanyingzuokejinritoutiaocaijingwei访fangtan《大dakaceluehui》栏lanmu,能nengfoujiandanjieshaoxiazijidecongyejinglihexingquaihao

xiongyuan:大dajiahao,我woshixiongyuan,中zhongkeyuandeboshi,社shekeyuandeboshihou。去qunianerjiduqudeguoshengzhengquan,负fuzedaituanduikanhongguan,我wodemaifangyanjiuzhilvyejiucikaiqiliao。此ciqian,我woxianhoujiuzhiyuzhongguogongshangyinxingzongxingheanbangzichanguanligongsi,做zuodedushihongguanyanjiuxiangguandegongzuo。同tongshi,我woyeyoushekeyuanfuyanjiuyuan(副fujiaoshou)的dezhicheng,所suoyixueshuyanjiudejingliyizhimeiduanguo。兴xingquaihaofangmian,除chuliaoreaiyanjiu,喜xihuankanjinyongxiaoshuohejinyongticaidedianshiju(这zhegeyeshiwofangsongdeyigezhuyaofangshi),以yijixihuanpianzhilileidehuodong,比biruxiangqi、围weiqi、麻majiang、扑pukedengdeng

wen:市shichangshangmaifangyanjiuzhemeduo,你nirenweishimecaishilizuzhiben?就jiugereneryan,你nirenweizijideyanjiuyouzenyangdetese

xiongyuan:说shuoshihua,虽suiranwogongzuoshijianbuduan,但danwozhenzhengzuomaifangyanjiudeshijianbingbuchang,所suoyishuo,回huidazhegewentiqishiyoudiandiqibuzu。以yiwo2016年nianyilaide2年nianmaifangyanjiujingliyijigangguoqude10来laigeyuemaifangyanjiujinglilaishuo,倾qingxiangyurenwei,好haodemaifangyanjiu,就jiushinenggougeimaifang(机jigoutouzizhe)的detouzijuecetigongkeguanyouxiaodezhicheng,这zhegezhichengkeyishiyixieshujuzhenglizhileidejichugongzuo,也yekeyishishichangzoushi、经jingjixianxiang、产chanyefazhanbeihoudeluojiyanhuadengxiangduigaojiediandegongzuo。因yincine,只zhiyaonengbangzhumaifangwanshantazishendetouyankuangjia(哪napazhishiwanshanyidiandian),在zaiwokanlai,就jiushihaodemaifangyanjiu。从congzhegedianlaikan,对duiyumaifangyanjiulaishuo, 立lizuzhibenjiushizhishaoyaoyouyijizhichang,也yejiushishuonenggougeizijitieshangyigeheshide“标biaoqian”。当dangran,研yanjiuqishixiangtongde,假jiayishiriruguochengweidajialiao,过guoqudeyijizhichangyexujiukeyizhuanhuaweiquannengxingxuanshouliao

duiwozijilaishuo,毕bijingshijianhuanhenduan,特tesehuantanbushang,还huanzaimosuoguochengzhong。非feiyaoshuodehua,我wodedayinxinghedabaoxiandemaifangjinglikenengshiwodejiafenxiang。同tongshi,由youyuchangqigenzonghongguanzhengce,加jiashangyeyizhizaigeiguanfangmeitixiepinglunwenzhang,所suoyiduizhengcebawoyouzijideduteshijiao

wen:历lishishangyouM1M2剪jiandaochaweizhengdeshiqi,也yeyoumuqianM1M2剪jiandaochaweifudeshiqi,这zheliangzhongzhuangkuangfenbieduiyingzenyangdehongguanjingjizhouqijieduan?相xiangguanzhibiaoshifoukeyipanduangushi、楼loushihuoqitazichanjiagebodongqushi

xiongyuan:2018年nian2月yueyilai, M1-M2剪jiandaochayouzhengzhuanfu,至zhijinyilianxu13个geyueweifu,确queshizhideguanzhu。从conglishizoushilaikan,总zongtikeyirenweiM1-M2剪jiandaochashiwoguojingjideyigelingxianzhibiao,与yugushi、楼loushihuoqitazichanjiagebodongyejuyouyidingdexiangguanxing

duijingjifangmian, M1-M2增zengsuchadui制造业pmidelingxianguanxibuxianzhu,2015年nianhouzheyilingxianguanxidagaizai2-11个geyue;领lingxiangongyeqiyelirun(当dangyuetongbi)3-8个geyue;与yugongyezengjiazhi(当dangyuetongbi)几jihutongbu,但danzheyitongbuguanxizai2015年nianzhihoujianruo;领lingxianmingyiGDP增zengsu3-8个geyue

duifangdichanfangmian, M1-M2增zengsuchalingxianfangdichantouzi(累leijitongbi)增zengsu2-6个geyue,但danzheyiguanxizai2016年nianzhihouyousuojianruo;滞zhihoushangpinfangxiaoshoue(累leijitongbi)2-4个geyue

duigushifangmian, M1-M2剪jiandaochayushangzhengzongzhizoushijuyouyidingdexiangguanxing,但danbingbuxianzhu。仅jindangjiandaochadafuzoukuohuodafushouzhaishi股票市场caihuisuizhishangzhanghuoxiadie。此ciwai,相xiangjiaoyuguzhi,剪jiandaochaheshangzhengzongzhishiyinglv(P/E)的dexiangguanxinggengjiaxianzhu,这zhefanyingchujiandaochaduigushideyingxiangqudaozhuyaoshitongguoliudongxingyingxiangguzhi,当dangshichangliudongxinggaishanshi,股gushiguzhishuipingwangwanghuitisheng,从congerduiguzhixingchengzhicheng

2018年nianyilai,我woguoM1-M2剪jiandaochachixuweifu,主zhuyinyouer

yifangmian,地dichandiaokongjiama。由youyujumincunkuanjiruM2,企qiyehuoqicunkuanjiruM1,当dangjumingoufangshi,货huobijiuhuiyoujuminbumenliurufangdichanqiye,从congerdaozhiM1增zengjia、M2不bubian。社shekeyuanfabude《中zhongguozhufangfazhanbaogao(2018-2019)》显xianshi,2018年nianyilai,房fangdichandiaokongzhengcebuduanjiama,全quanguofangdichandiaokongcishuyijinggaoda405次ci,比bi2017年niantongqishangzhangjiejin80%。调diaokongzhengcedejiamadaozhishangpinfangxiaoshoudafuxiahua,进jinertuoleiM1增zengsuxiahua。同tongshi,居juminbumendingqicunkuandafuzengjia,或huoshiyouyumaifangyiyuanxiajiangsuozhi

lingyifangmian,企qiyerongzibuchang。在zai2017年nian12月yueziguanxinguiyijian稿gaofabuzhihou,非feibiaoleirongziguimoxunsushousuo,并bingcongqunian2月yuekaishichixufuzengchang。与yucitongshi,由youyujinrongjigoufengxianpianhaojiaodi、银yinxingfangdaiyiyuanbuqiang,导daozhi2018年nianchuyilaiqiyexinzengdaikuanguimohesherongguimotongbichixuweifu,企qiyerongzibuchangdebeijingxia,现xianjinliumianlinjudayali,导daozhiqiyehuoqicunkuanxiajiangbingtuoleiM1增zengsu

wen:如ruhelijieM2增zengsuyingyuGDP名mingyizengsuxiangpipei?前qianjinianjihuM2增zengsudushigaoyuGDP名mingyizengsu,目muqianM2增zengsuruoyuGDP名mingyizengsudeqingkuanghuichangqichixuma

xiongyuan:从congjingyanguilvlaikan,合heyide M2 增zengsuyinggaiwei“实shijiGDP 增zengsu+通tongzhangshuiping+2-3%的dedanxingkongjian”。现xianzaikaishiqiangdiao“M2增zengsuyingyuGDP名mingyizengsuxiangpipei”,本benzhishanghuanshitouluchuwoguobuhuizai“大dashuimanguan”。从congqianjinianlaikan,M2增zengsudushigaoyuGDP名mingyizengsu,这zheyeshidajiarenweiwoguohuobichaofadeyigezhijielunju。反fanyingdao2019年nian,在zaizhongxingjiashexia,我womenyuji2019年nianshijiGDP增zengsuzai6.2%左zuoyouCPIzhongshu2.3%-2.5%左zuoyou,对duiyingdejinnianM2同tongbizai8.5%-8.9%之zhijian,难nanpo9%。

wen:四sijiduhuobizhengcezhixingbaogaozhongshandiao“中zhongxing”和he“总zongzhamen”的debiaoshu,这zheshifouyiweizhuohuobizhengceyoushizhixingzhuanxiangpiankuansongdeyitu

xiongyuan:确queshi,四sijiduhuobizhengcezhixingbaogaozhongshandiao“中zhongxing”和he“总zongzhamen”的debiaoshu,但danzhengfugongzuobaogaoyouba“总zongzhamen”加jiahuiquliao。总zongdelaikan,当dangqianwoguohuobizongtihuanshiqukuansongde

yifangmian, 对dui“货huobigonggeizongzhamen”的debiaoshuqishipiansongde,具jutikan,由you “调diaojiehao(16Q4-17Q3)”—“管guanzhu(17Q4、18Q1)”—“管guanhao(18年nianerjiduhuobizhengcelihui)”—“把bahao(7.31政zhengzhijuhuiyi、18Q2“管guanzhu”转zhuanwei“把bahao”、18Q3延yanxu“把bahao”)—“删shandiao(18Q4)”—“把bahao(19年nianzhengfugongzuobaogao)”。

lingyifangmian,央yangxing《四sijiduhuobizhengcezhixingbaogao》提tichu,要yaojixushishiwenjiandehuobizhengceyaogenjuxingshifazhanbianhuadongtaiyouhuahenizhouqidiaojie,适shiduyunpingjingjidezhouqibodong,在zaishangxingqifangzhijingjiguorehetonghuopengzhang,在zaixiaxingqiduikangjingjishuai退tuihetonghuojinsuo。不bunankanchu,货huobizhengcejianggengzhuzhongnizhouqidiaojie

wen:1月yuexindaishujudafuchaoshichangyuqi,超chaodeshinabufen“预yuqi”?为weishimehuiyoupiaojuchongliangzheyixianxiang?2月yuexindaishujuyoudafuhuiluo,如ruhecongshujudedafubodongzhongxunzhaokekaodequshine

xiongyuan:第diyi,1月yuedexinzengxindaigaozengyuanyuyinxingjizhongfangdaidejijiexingyinsu,也yeyuyangxingjiadanizhouqidiaojieyouguan。结jiegoushangkan,1月yuedejuminzhongchangdai、企qiyeduandai、企qiyezhongchangdai、表biaoneiwaipiaojujunyouliaobutongchengdudechaojijiexingbiaoxian;而er1月yuexinzengsherongchuangxingao,主zhuyaoshixinzengbiaowairongziyoufuzhuanzheng,表biaoneidaikuanzechixudandangzhuli企业债券hedifangzhengfuzhuanxiangzhaijundafuzengjia

dier,对duiyupiaojuchongliang,我worenweixuyaokeguankandai。数shujushangkan,2018年nianyilaixinzengxindaiyidatuchujiegouxingtedian便bianshipiaojurongzichixuchengweizhuzhicheng。2018年nianquannian,表biaoneihebiaowaipiaojurongzizongliangleijixinzeng12557亿yiyuan,其qizhongbiaoneipiaojurongzizengchang18900亿yiyuan,表biaowaidexinzengweitiexianyinxingchengduihuipiaoxiajiang6343亿yiyuan。单danyuexinzengpiaojuyefanyingchubiaoneipiaojurongzizengliangshangxing,表biaowaipiaojuzengliangxiaxingdequshi

zongdelaishuo,票piaojutiexiangaozengzhuyaoyuanyuyinxingcundaikaohe、民minqirongzixuqiuyijipiaojurongzichengbenjiangdisanfangmiandekaolv。第diyi,监jianguanyaoqiuyaojiadaduiminyingqiyedaikuantoufanglidu。票piaojurongzifengxianxiao,灵linghuoxingqiang,是shiyinxingdiaojiexindaiguimojiaohaodexuanze。此ciwai,签qianfapiaojushiqiyexuyaojiaonabaozhengjin,因yincipiaojuyoukezengjiayinxingcunkuan,可kebangzhuyinxingwanchengcunkuanzhibiao。第dier,在zaiquganggandedabeijingxia,中zhongxiaoqiyerongziqudaoshouxian,企qiyexuanzekaotiexianlaigaishanxianjinliu。第disan,2018年nianxiabannianyilai,货huobizhengcezhuanxiangkuansong,货huobishichanglilvzhengtixiaxing,带daidongpiaojurongzililvxiaxingsudukuaiyuputongdaikuanlilv,贴tiexianchengbendejiangdiyetishengliaopiaojurongziduiqiyedexiyinli

dangqiankan,2019年nianpiaojurongzidegaozengrengyuzhesanfangmianyuanyinyouguan。与yucitongshi,也yequeshiyaojingtiliyongpiaojurongziyujiegouxingcunkuandelichajinxingtaolixingwei,进jinerdaozhipiaojurongzixuzengyifenshixindaihesherongzengliang

disan,您nintidaodexindaishujudaqidaluo,其qishishuyuzhengchangxianxiang,今jinnian1月yuehe2月yuezhuyaohuanshichunjiederaodong。事shishishang,研yanpanxindaizoushi,核hexinshibawohaowoguohuobizhengcedezongjidiao。比biru,已yiyouzhuduojixiangbiaoming,今jinnianhuobizhengcezongtishiqukuansongde,因yinci,今jinnianxindaihesherongdagailvshiyaobiqunianhaode

wen:2月yueCPI同tongbizhang1.5%,连lianxu4月yuezhangfuhuiluo,有yourenshuokandaoliaotongsuo,有yourenshuokandaoliaokuansongyuqi,你nikandaoliaoshime

xiongyuan:整zhengtilaikan,2月yuetongzhangfuhewomendeyuqi。往wanghoukan,通tongzhangyoujingwuxian,全quannianbuhuiyouyanzhongdetongsuo。根genjuwomendejiandanmoxingcesuan(纯chuncuijiyuqiaoweiyinsuhexinzhangjiayinsudelishibiaoxian),2019年niantongzhangjiezouruxia

CPI方fangmian,2月yuedagailvshiCPI同tongbiquanniandidian,之zhihou 3月yuezhi6月yuekenenglianxuzougaozhi2%上shangfang(不buhuitupo3%),下xiabannianzhengtihuiluo(需xuyaojingtizhuwendaozhizhujiadazhang,进jineryipingCPI回huiluofudu)。

PPIfangmian,低dijishuzhixia3月yuePPI小xiaofuhuisheng,4月yuekaishijiangchixuxiadiezhisanjidu,二erjidumokenengdierufuqujian,三sanjidumoyinglaizuidadiefu,四sijidumozaiduxiaosheng

xuyaozhuyideshi,随suizhuozhuwenfajiao、货huobikuansong,市shichangduitongzhangyuqiyousuojiaqiang。综zonghekaolvzhujia、油youjiaheliudongxing,我womenyuji,二erjidutongzhangyalijiaoda,CPI可kenengzai7月yueqianhoudadaonianneigaodian(2.5%-2.8%)。除chufeiyoujiachaoyuqishangzhang,否fouzenianneiCPI难nan“破po3”。也yejiushishuo,通tongzhangzoushibuhuichengweihuobizhengcedezhiyue

wen:目muqianyoujiasihujinruliaoyigebugaobudidequjian,当dangqianyoujiazuihexindemaodunshishime,未weilaiwangnagefangxiangzoudegailvgengda

xiongyuan:分fenxiyoujia,供gongxubianhuashibenzhi,地diyuanzhengzhi、技jishujinbu美元dengqitayinsushizhongyaoraodongtebieshiduanqizoushi。原yuanyoujiagebianhuazhuyaoshougongxuhefeigongxuyinsuyingxiang,供gonggeiduanyinsubaokuoshijieyuanyouchuliang、储chucaibiopechefeiOPEC国guojiayuanyouchanliangdeng;需xuqiuduanzhuyaoshouquanqiujingjizoushiyingxiang;供gonggeihexuqiudegongtongzuoyongxingchengdegongxuquekouhe原油库存shijuedingliaoyoujia“基jibenpan”;此ciwai,地diyuanzhengzhi、技jishugengtidaozhideyuanyoukaicaichengbenbianhua、原yuanyoutidaipinxuqiuyijimeiyuanzoushidushiyingxiangyoujiadeqitazhongyaozhibiao

tongjilaikan,1861年nianyilaiyoujialijingqilunzhouqi,大dajibiedezhangdiezhuyaoshigongxuzhudao。经jingyanfaxian,油youjia“长changzhang”基jibenyuanyugonggeishousuohuoxuqiuzengchangdequedingxingshijian,“大dadie”则zelaiyuanyukeyujiandegonggeidafuzengchang(新xinyoutian、产chanyouguokuochan)或huodaguimoshuai退tui(经jingjiweiji)。

yiguoquliangnianyoujiazoushilaishuo,2017年nian6月yuediyilaiyoujiashangzhang,主zhuyinbaokuo:OPEC延yanchangjianchanfajiao、全quanqiujingjifusutizhenyuanyouxuqiu、OECD库kucunxiajiang、沙shatefanfudeng;2018年nian10月yue3日rizhihouyoujiayilubaodie,主zhuyinshimeiguozhicaiyilangbujiyuqi、沙shatejizheshijiandengdiyuanzhengzhichongji,导daozhishichangdanyouyuanyoushichanggongguoyuqiu,表biaoxianweimeiguo、俄eluosi、沙shatezengchan,OPEC下xiadiao2019年nianyuanyouxuqiu

zhanwang2019年nian, OPEC成chengyuanguokenengqidongxinyilunjianchan,但danmeiedagailvzengchanjiquanqiujingjixiahuajiangtuoleixuqiu,再zaidiejiatelangpudebuquedingxinghediyuanzhengzhichongtu,不bunanpanduan,油youjiahoushidequebianshuhenda。倾qingxiangyurenwei,相xiangbi2018年nian,2019年nianyoujiazhongshudagailvxiaxing

wen:市shichangpubianyuqijingjijiangzaierjiduqiwen,你niruhekandaiquanniandejingjizoushi

xiongyuan: 2019年nianjingjixiaxingyiwuxuannian,关guanjianshixiaxingjiezou。由youyuqunian7月yuewoguozhengcezongtiquyukuansong,因yincizhengcetuodideliduhuibajingjixiaxingdepoduladepingyidian。基jiyuwodepanduan,2019年nianGDP增zengsushangbannianzhubuhuiluo、下xiabannianzouping,二erjiduyalizuida。同tongshi,考kaolvdaozhengfugongzuobaogao5次citijiyao“确quebaojingjiyunxingzaiheliqujian”,意yiweizhuoquannianzengchang6%应yingshizuidiyaoqiu

wen:大dajiadufeichangguanzhujianshuijutilihaonaxiehuanjiedeqiye,以yijinaxiexingyeshouhuiliduzuida,对duicinishifouyouxiangxicesuanguo

xiongyuan:减jianshuizhekuai,我womentuanduihuanshizuoliaojiaoweiqianzhanhexitongdeyanjiu,去qunianwomenxianhouxieliao5篇pianjianshuixiangguandeshendubaogao,也yeyouxiangxidecesuan。目muqiangongbudezuixinjianshuifangan,也yeyuwomenqunian9月yuecesuanbaogaotichudeciyoufangandatiyizhi。由youyushangshigongsishangweipilu2018年niannianbao,我womenyi2017年niannianbaoshujuzuoweijisuanjizhun,来laicesuanbencijianshuidexingyeyingxiang,几jigejielunruxia

diyi,本bencizengzhishui16%降jiangzhi13%(去qunian5月yuecong17%降jiangzhi16%),10%降jiangzhi9%(去qunian5月yuecong11%降jiangzhi10%)根genjumoxingcesuan,2018-2019年nianquannianzengzhishuijianshuiguimojiangda1.04万wan亿yi。考kaolvdao2018年nianyixiadiao1个gebaifendian(全quannianjianshuiguimoyue4000亿yi),本bencijiang16%降jiangzhi13%、10%降jiangzhi9%减jianshuiguimoyuewei6000亿yi

dier,从congjianshuiguimolaikan,仅jinjiushangshigongsieryan,零lingshou(减jian132亿yi)、煤meitankaicai(减jian131亿yi)、房fangdichankaifa(减jian126亿yi)、乘chengyongche(减jian123亿yi)、普pugang(减jian123亿yi)、白baisejiadian(减jian94亿yi)等dengxingyejianshuiguimozuigao

disan,由youyuzengzhishuishijiawaishui,并bingbujinrulirunbiao,其qiduiqiyelirundeyingxiangjiangtongguoqiyedeyijianenglishixian。综zonghekaolvxingyemaolilv,我womenqingxiangyurenwei,白baidian、化huaxuezhiyao、中zhongyaoshengchan、白baijiu、化huaxueyuanliao、食shipindengxingyelirunzenghouzuiweimingxian,增zenghoufuduyuewei4%。

wen:人renminbihuilvjinniankewei“人renqijinshi”,汇huilvqiwenhou,市shichangsihumeirenzaiguanzhuhuilvliao,你nirenweihuilvzainianneikenengzaicidafubodongma?长changqilaikanruheyanbian

xiongyuan:说shuorenminbihuilvshi“人renqijinshi”,这zhedianwobutaitongyiha。你nikanriqianrenminyinxingdedajizhewen,我wojiandantongjiliaoxia,汇huilvwentiyinggaishibeiwendezuiduode

dangqian,利licha、通tongzhangdengchuantongyinsuyibushihuilvdeguanjianbianliang,汇huilvgengduodibianchengliaodaguoboyidegongju。判panduanrenminbihuilvhoushi,主zhuyaokanmeiyuanzoushihewoguoyangxingderongrendu。2019年nianquannianmeiyuandagailvduanzhangchangdie,对duiyingrenminbidagailvbianzhongquwen,破poqijibenshibutaikenengliao

jiezoushangkan,一yifangmian,二erjidu美联储zanhuanjiaxidebeiguanyuqiyoukenengxiaofuxiufu,叠diejia欧元PMI持chixudimi、欧ouyangxingjinsuojiezoukenengbujiyuqi,美meiyuanyouwangbaochiqiangshi,对duirenminbixingchengyidingdedaya。下xiabannianzaimeiguojingjihuiluo、停tingzhijiaxiqiekenengtiqianjieshusuobiaodeyingxiangxia美元指数yujihuiluo,对duirenminbidedayayouwanghuanjie。另lingyifangmian,进jinchukouwentidagailvquyuhuanhe,人renminbishengzhigailvjiaoda。此ciwai,“保baochirenminbihuilvdanxing,并bingzaibiyaoshijiaqianghongguanshenshenguanli,稳wendingshichangyuqi”仍rengshiwoguohuobidangjuduirenminbihuilvdezongyaoqiu。综zonghekan,人renminbihuilvdagailvbianzhongquwen,二erjiduyouwangweiquanniandidian,不buguozuidakenengshipianzhendanggeju

wen:年nianchuyilai,我woguoA股keweiqishiruhong,你niruhekandai?你nirenwei2019年nianhuanyounaxiechaoyuqi

xiongyuan:从congzoushishangkan,年nianchuyilaiA股gudesandaguzhizhangfuweijuquanqiuqiansan,的dequeshiqishiruhong。比bijiaoxingyun,我woyinggaishicong2018年niandijiukaishizaishuo:2019年nian,可keyileguanyidian。核hexinyijushiwokandaoliaowoguozhengceyizhizaifali、一yizhizaikuansong,而erqiezhecifalihekuansongdefangxiangyebiyiqianlaidegengweijingzhunxie,更gengweishichanghuayixie。往wanghoukan,继jixutishiwonianchudenianduzhanwangbaogaotidaodesigechaoyuqi,尤youqishiweilaiyiliangyueyaomiqiegenzongdifangzhengfujijixingshifouhuisheng

chaoyuqiyi:钱qiancongnalilai?——改gai“游youxi”规guize。改gaibian“游youxi”规guizedebenzhishituokuanzhidukongjian,可keconghuobigongjuhecaizhengshouduanrushou,提tishiguanzhuguoneihuobipaishengjizhidezhuanbianyijikenengdezhongyangjiaganggan。央yangxingzai2月yuexiaxungongbude《2018年niandisijiduzhongguohuobizhengcezhixingbaogao》中zhong,曾zengzhengmianbiaotaibuhuigoumaiguozhai,并bingmingquebuhuishishiQE,货huobizhengcefaxingjizhigengjiazhuzhongzhuquanxinyong;我womenjianyizhongdianhouxuwoguoxinyongchuangzaojizhikenengdegengdatupo

chaoyuqier:钱qianwangnaliqu?——孕yunyuzhongdexinjingji。2019年nianzhengfugongzuobaogaoba“坚jianchichuangxinyinlingfazhan,培peiyuzhuangdaxindongneng”作zuoweijinniandeshidagongzuorenwuzhiyi。特tebiedi,报baogaotichu“改gaigechuangxinkejiyanfahechanyehuayingyongjizhi”,以yiji“全quanmianjiaqiangzhishichanquanbaohu,健jianquanzhishichanquanqinquanchengfaxingpeichangzhidu,促cujinfamingchuangzaohezhuanhuayunyong”,倾qingxiangyurenwei,后houxuwoguozhishichanquanhezhuanlijiangzhubuzouxiangzibenhuadedingjiashidai。换huanyanzhi,研yanfatouruyuegao、专zhuanliyueduo、知zhishichanquanyueduodeqiye,将jianglaiyouwanggengjiashouyi。建jianyiguanzhuxinxijishu、高gaoduanzhuangbei、生shengwuyiyao、新xinnengyuanqiche、新xincailiaodengweidaibiaode“硬yingkeji”。

chaoyuqisan:改gaigezhaohuoli?——可keqidaidesanfangxiang。2019年nian,国guoqigaige、土tudizhidugaige、资zibenshenhua(货huobihua、科kechuangban)值zhideqidai。一yifangmian,今jinnianzhengfugongzuobaogaotichu“加jiakuaiguoziguoqigaige”,“自ziranlongduanxingyeyaogenjubutongxingyetedianshixingwangyunfenkai,将jiangjingzhengxingyewuquanmiantuixiangshichang”,倾qingxiangyurenwei,当dangqianjingjizengsuxiaxingyalizengdayouwang“倒daobi”国guoqigaigelidujijincheng。另lingyifangmian,今jinnianzhengfugongzuobaogaotichu“以yifuwushitijingjiweidaoxiang,改gaigeyouhuajinrongtixijiegou,发fazhanminyingyinxingheshequyinxing。改gaigewanshanzibenshichangjichuzhidu,促cujinduocengcizibenshichangjiankangwendingfazhan”,其qishiduiyingdejiushiguojia2月yuexiaxuntichude “深shenhuajinronggonggeicejiegouxinggaige”。综zonghelaikan,相xiangbi2015年niandigangtiemeitandegonggeicegaige(以yitaotaichannengweizhu),本benlunjinronggonggeicejiegouxinggaigeshiduoyanghuazengjiajinronggonggei,包baokuojinrongjigougonggei、金jinrongchanpingonggei、金jinrongfuwugonggei、金jinrongzhidugonggeideng,大dajinrongyouwangjixushouyi

chaoyuqisi:谁shuihuiquzhixing?——各gefangjijixingtisheng。2019年nian,各gediqugebumengejigoudejijixingshiguanjian,建jianyiguanzhusigegenzongweidu。维weiduyi:关guanzhugebuweichutaidezhengce,如ruguowuyuanjinwenhui、民minqizuotanhui、政zhengzhijuhuiyidexiangguanbiaotaideng;维weiduer:关guanzhubiaowairongzizoushi,预yuji2019年nianfuzengchangqushijiangjinyibufanghuan,甚shenzhizhuanweizhengzengchang;维weidusan:关guanzhuPPP落luodiqingkuang,2018年nian9月yueyilailihaozhengcexiangjichutai,PPP基jijinyujijiangtouru使shiyong;维weidusi:关guanzhuweiguandiaoyan、基jijianxiangguanxingyededingdanqingkuang,2019年niantouzilingyuyujijiangkuozhandaochengshiguidaojiaotong、人rengongzhineng、工gongyehulianwangdengxinxingjichusheshijianshefangxiang

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