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亚马逊(AMZN.US)有多少经济学博士?可能仅次于美联储

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自腾讯科技。据国外媒体报道称,预测国家通货膨胀是一项棘手而复杂的任务。在美国,政府的劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)通常会派遣测试人员到商店记录从奶酪到轮胎的各种商品价格,并通过电话向消费者调查他们在汽油和葬礼服务上的具体花….

benwenlaizitengxunkeji

juguowaimeitibaodaocheng,预yuceguojiatonghuopengzhangshiyixiangjishouerfuzaderenwu。在zaimeiguo,政zhengfudelaogongtongjiju(Bureau of Labor Statistics)通tongchanghuipaiqianceshirenyuandaoshangdianjilucongnailaodaoluntaidegezhongshangpinjiage,并bingtongguodianhuaxiangxiaofeizhediaochatamenzaiqiyouhezanglifuwushangdejutihuafei

danxianran,亚yamaxunrenweizijikeyizuodegenghao

zaiwaibuyanjiurenyuandebangzhuxia,该gaigongsidejingjixuejiazhengzaiyanjiuyizhongfangfa,通tongguozaizijidepingtaishangjinxingshuqianbijiaoyilaihengliangtongzhang。自zidongfenxichanpinshuomingyibangzhuzijigenghaodipinggufuzhuang、榨zhazhijihuoyudiandezhiliang,从conglilunshangchuangjianyigegengzhunque、最zuixindechanpinjiagezhishu

zhezhishiyamaxun使shiyongqijinnianlaizhaomudeyipijingjixuejiadeqizhongyizhongfangshi。如rujinzhejiadianshangjutouyijingkaishiconglingshouyekuozhandaobaokuoyunjisuandengduogeyewulingyu,同tongshidianfuliaojingjixuejiazaigongsineibudechuantongjiaose

xiaoxicheng,亚yamaxunxianzaimeinianhuicongbiyedeboshijingjixuejiarencaikuzhong“吸xiqu”大daliangxinxianxueye。在zaimeiguo,这zheyirencaikumeinianzhizengchangyue1000名mingxinboshibiyesheng。虽suiranrujin“经jingjixuejia”的dedingyiyijingshifenmohu,但danzhemenxueketongchangbeilijiewei“研yanjiurenmenruhe使shiyongziyuanheduijilidefanying”。

guoqujinianli,亚yamaxunguyongliaochaoguo150名mingboshijingjixuejia,已yijingchengweiliaogailingyuzuidadeguzhu,仅jinciyu美联储(美meilianchuyongyoushubaimingjingjixuejia)。而erqie,它tahuanshiweiyijiazai1月yuefenmeiguojingjixiehui(AmericanEconomics Association)年nianhuishangsheyouzhaopintanweideqiye,并bingqiezaichangmianfeifenfagangbihedaishangbiaodeyaliqiu

yurenzhiyuxueshujiehuozhengfudejingjixuejiabutong,亚yamaxunjingjixuejiadegongzuoneirongjihuwanquanshibaomide,工gongzuorenyuanbixuqianshubaomixieyicainengkaishigongzuo。但dangenjubeijingdiaochaheyamaxunbenshentouludexiaoxi,整zhenghejingjixuejiadeliliangduigaigongsizaidianzishangwulingyudejingrenzengchangqizhuozhiguanzhongyaodezuoyong

yamaxundejingjixuejiamenfuzezhidingfangdichanjuece,设shedingweigongsidailailirundechanpinzuidijiage,精jingquequerenkehuxuqiu,以yijipanduan广guanggaoshifouyouxiao。以yishangsuoyouzhexiedu使shiyongdaoliaojiqixuexisuanfa,这zhezhongsuanfakeyidaguimodishixianjuecezidonghua。规guimojiaoxiaodegongsibingbuzongshinengweizhezhongzichanmaidan,这zhe使shideyamaxunjiangjingzhengduishouyuanyuanpaozaishenhou

qitayouxiaoliyongjingjixuejiadekejigongsi,比biruyongyou30人renjingjixuejiatuanduideUber,也yeduiyamaxunsuodazaodetuanduiguimobiaoshiqinpei。Uber首shouxijingjixuejiaqiaonasen·霍huoer(JonathanHall)今jinnian1月yuezaimeiguojingjixiehuifabiaoyanjiangshibiaoshi:“亚yamaxunshiweiyijiapinyongliaodaliangjingjixuejiadegongsi,并bingqieyinciqudeliaodaliangchenggong。尽jinguanxuduogongsipinqingjingjixuejiadanrenzijimianxianggongzhongdefayanrenhuozhidaozongtiqiyezhanlue,但danUber和heyamaxundushiturangtamenchengweijihumeiyixiangshangyejuecedeguanjianguwen,并bingyongdaliangshujulaiqudairenleizhijue

yucitongshi,亚yamaxunzhengzaianzhaozijidexingxiangzhongsujingjilingyu

“亚yamaxunderenbingbuhuibanyanxiangchuantongshouxijingjixuejianayangdejiaose,他tamenzaizuodeshiwanquanbutongdeshiqing。”全quanguoshangyejingjixiehui(National Association of Business Economics)执zhixingzhurentangmu·贝beiersi(TomBeers)说shuodao

kejijingjixuejiadejueqi

yinggaishuo,经jingjixuejiaduisiyingqiyelaishuobingbumosheng。长changqiyilai,他tamenyizhizaibangzhuyucehongguanjingjizhuangkuang,以yizhidaoguanyushengchanshimechanpin、进jinrunageshichangyijicongnalicaigouyuancailiaodezhanluejuece

tamendejiaoseduiyukejiqiyelaishuoyebumosheng,因yinweixiangIBM、英yingteerheweiruanzheyangdegongsidusheliliaozheyijiaose,并bingyoujishiniandelishi。比biru,谷gugeshouxijingjixuejiahaer·瓦walian(HalVarian)帮bangzhushejiliaogaigongsishoucigongkaimugushidexinpaimaimoshi,同tongshiyezhengmingliaogugebingweiweifanlongduanfa。谷gugetoulu,该gaigongsixianzaiyongyouyue300名mingjingjixuejiahetongjixuejia,但danbuyuanjiucitigonggengxiangxideshuju

juxin,在zaizheyilingyu,亚yamaxunpinyongdeboshijingjixuejiashuliangbirenheqitakejigongsiduduo

guoqujinianli,一yixiemianxiangxiaofeizhedexiaoxingkejigongsi,比birujiatingsousuopingtaiHomeaway和heqiuzhiwangzhanIndeed也yekaishipinqingjingjixuejialaichuliyonghushuju,并bingchanshengyixieshujujiedu。这zhexieshujujiedukeyidabaochengyizhongmeitixingshi,提tigonggeijizhe。这zhexieqiyetongshihuanjuyoumouxiezhengfuguanxizhineng,并bingtongguoshujubiaominggongsiduimouyitedingshequdailaidejijiyingxiang

liangnianqian,全quanguoshangyejingjixuexiehuihuanqidongliaoyichangjinmianxiangkejijingjixuejiadenianduhuiyi,与yuhuijiabinbaokuolaiyamaxundesiweijingjixuejia

genjuhafoshangxueyuan(Harvard Business School)教jiaoshoumaikeer·卢luka(MichaelLuca)和hesitanfudaxueyanjiushengyuanjiaoshou、微weiruanqianjingjixuejiasushan·阿a西xi(Susan Ahe)最zuijindeyipianlunwen,在zaimeiguojingjixiehuidegongzuoqingdanshujukuzhong,为weijingjixuejiadachuzhaopinqishidekejigongsishuliangcong2014~2015年niande15家jiazengjiadaoliao2017~2018年niande21家jia,今jinnianshenzhiyouwangjixuzengjia。而erqie,考kaolvdaobingbushisuoyoukejigongsiduhuigongkaiweijingjixuejiazhiweizuozhaopin广guanggao,这zheyishuzikenenghuanbingbushiquanbu

“想xiangxiangyixia,如ruguonishiyijiayongyoudaliangmendiandedaxinglingshoushang。我womentongchangkeyizhunqueyuce30~40%门mendiandexiaoshoubiaoxian。利liyongmuqiandejiqixuexiherengongzhinengnengli,我womenzaitedingdidianyuceyewubiaoxiandezhunquelvyijingjiejin90%。”IBM首shouxijingjixuejiamading·弗fulaiming(MartinFlming)说shuodao

duiyuxiangyamaxunzheyangdegongsilaishuo,这zhezhongnenglishitamenjiweikanzhongde。亚yamaxunyongyoudeshujukenengbiqitarenhegongsiduduo,而ertayexuyaoshujucainengzhengchangyunzuogegeyewubumen,无wulunshidaikuan、网wangluofuwu,还huanshizuihouyiyinglijiaofudengdushiruci

shujudemoli

yamaxunpangdashujuchulituanduideshejishishipate·巴bajiali(Pat Bajari),他tashiyiweibeishouzunjingdexuezhe

zi1993年nianzaimingnisudadaxuehuodeboshixueweiyilai,他tazhuanxieliaodaliangguanyufangjia、政zhengfucaigou、拍paimaidengzhutidelunwen。在zaihafodaxue、斯sitanfudaxuehedukedaxuegongzuohou,巴bajialiyu2010年nianjiaruyamaxun,担danrenfuzongcaiheshouxijingjixuejia

yizhiyilai,亚yamaxundujujuerangqixiarenheyiweijingjixuejiajieshoucai访fang,也yejujuehuidayouguantamengongzuodewenti。但danjingjixuejiamenouerhuigongkaifayan,巴bajializengzaimeiguojingjixiehuihuiyishangfabiaoliaoyipianlunwen,主zhutishiguanyuyamaxunliyongdaliangshujuyucelingshouxuqiu,以yijidashujuruheyingxiangqiyeyejide。在zaiyanjiangzhong,他tafenxiangliaoyixiezijiduijingjiruhesuzaokejigongsidekanfa

“从congdayuebanianqiankaishi,我wokandaozhegexingyefashengliaobianhua,企qiyekaishigengjiarenzhendi使shiyongkexuefangfa,来laixiaochugongsineibudecaice。”在zailiangjuhuazhijian,巴bajialidaizhuoteyoudejinzhangxiaoshengshuo。“你nijibenshangshizai‘清qinglilaji’(clean up waste)。”

zaiqitagongsi,经jingjixuejiatongchangjizhongzaiyigexiaotuanduizhong。但danzaiyamaxun,他tamenhuibeizhenghedaozhenggegongsidexuduotuanduizhong。在zaiyibenzhizuojingmeidezhaopinshoucezhong,亚yamaxunmiaoshuliaoqijingjixuejiaruhebangzhujianlidaikuangeidisanfangmaijiadefengxianmoxing、为weiAlexa和heKindle等dengshebeidechanpinshejihecanyugenzongtigongzixun,以yijibangzhuqipengbofazhandeyunfuwuyewuxunzhaokehu,并bingyucegaixiaofeizhewangzhandefuwuqirongliangxuqiudenggongzuochangjing

zaimuqianfabuzaiyamaxunzhaopinwangzhanshangde46个gejingjixuejiazhiweiheshixizhiweizhong,其qizhongyouyixieshirangjingjixuejiabangzhuweidiaomaijiadingjia、找zhaochuyamaxunpangdafenxiaowangluoshixianyunshudezuijiafangshi,以yijiquedingbiaoxianzuihaorencaidetezhengyiqizuochuzuihaodezhaopinjueding

liru,亚yamaxunyunxingzhuoyigemingwei“Connections”的dechengxu,该gaichengxuhuixiangyuangongfasongxiaodiaochawenjuan,内neirongbaokuo“你nidegongzuoshifouweinintigongliaoxuexixinshiwudejihui?你nidetuanduizongshibakehufangzaidiyiweima?官guanliaozhuyiduodachengdushangzuailiaonijiaofuchengguodenengli?”

weiliaogaishanyuangongfankui,亚yamaxunshishiliaoyixieganyucuoshi,比birupeixunguanlirenyuan,让rangtamenyuxiashugenghaodihudong。事shishishang,该gaigongsizuizaodeshihoupinqingliaoyizhiyouxinlixuejia、其qitakexuejiahechanpinjinglizuchengdetuandui。但danbujiutamen便bianfaxian,这zhexianranbushiheshixianyamaxunzhuiqiudemubiao,即jigenghaodeyuangongbiaoxian。相xiangbizhixia,经jingjixuejiazenenggouyouxiaofenxinaxieganyucuoshicuchengliaogenggaodegongrenshengchanlv

yiweiyaoqiunimingdeqianyamaxunjingjixuejiabiaoshi:“心xinlixuejiazaiyamaxunduguoliaoyiduanfeichangjiannandeshiguang,因yinweitamenmeiyoujieshouguojingjixuejiajingliguodepeixun,这zhejiushiyuyinglinenglideguanxi。亚yamaxunshiyigeyishujuweiqudongdedifang,如ruguonibunengzhengmingnidejihuaduikehuyouli,就jiuhenkenenghuizaoyucuobai。”

yaonongqingchurenliziyuanshidianjihuahuozhejingjixuejiazaiyamaxunzuodexuduoqitashiqingshifouzouxiao,就jiuxuyao使shiyongdaosuoweide“因yinguotuili”(causal inference),即jiquedingshishimedaozhiliaoshime,从congerjuedingliaoyaozuoshime、该gaizuoxieshime

yiPrime订dingyuefuwuweili,大daduoshuxiaofeizhexuanzezheyifuwudadushiyinweimianfeisonghuofuwu、流liumeitishipin、还huanshiquanshichaoshidezhekou?经jingjixuejiadechuzuikenengdedaan,使shigongsinenggougenghaodijuedingnaxiePrime福fuliyinggaibaokuozainei、哪naxieyinggaiquxiao。其qitayixiegongsijuece,比biruruhedingwei广guanggao、在zainalikaisheshudianhecangku,以yijiEcho设shebeidechengbendengyeshoudaojingjixuejiadeshencha

zaidaduoshugongsi,这zheleigongzuotongchangshiyoushujukexuejialaiwanchengde。但danlingyiweiyamaxunqianjingjixuejiabiaoshi,巴bajializhuzhangpinyongshouguozhengguijingjipeixunderencai,以yiweijinkenengduodeshangyejuecetigongyouxiaozixun

zheweiyamaxunqianyuangongbiaoshi:“他tamenzaimouzhongchengdushangbiaoming,经jingjixuejiayongyougengjutidejinengzuhe,这zhexiejinenggengshiyongyuxuduoshangyewenti。”

tupoxiangyatadezhigu

keyikendingdeshi,建jianliyizhiyou150名mingboshijingjixuejiazuchengdetuanduibingfeiyishi,尤youqishiyinweizaiyanjiushengyuandexueshengtongchangrenwei“对duiyuwufazaidaxuezhaodaogongzuoderenlaishuo,私siyingbumencaishiyigehoubeixuanze”。虽suirangongsijingjixuejiahenshaozaixueshuqikanshangfabiaowenzhang(学xueshuqikandewenzhangfabiaoshuliangbeirenweishixueshujieyingzhibiao),但danyurenwenxuekedexuduolingyubutong,前qianzhetongchangkeyinadaofenghoudexinshui

dangran,亚yamaxunyewanquanyounengliweizheyituanduizhifugenggaodejiage。数shujuxianshi,甚shenzhilianputongjingjixuejiadexinchouyegaoda16万wan美元,这zhejihushiyamaxunsuoyouyuangongjibenxinzideshangxian,额ewaidegupiaoqiquanze使shitamendezongtixinchouyaogenggao

raner,这zhebingbushiyamaxunxiangxinpeiyangdeboshimensuojinxingdezhuyaoxuanchuan。因yinweizhexiejingjixuejiatongchangrenzhiyuzhimingxuefu,其qizhongxuduorendushizhongshenzhiwei,在zaitamendejianlishangyouyichangchuandechubanwuqingdan。因yinciyamaxundeshashoujianshi:为weitamentigongyongyoudaliangdujiashujude访fangwenquanxian,这zhexieshujuduiyudaxuedeyanjiurenyuanlaishuokenengshifeichangfeishifeilicaiyoukenenghuodede

2013年nianjiaruyamaxundegaojijinglijianjingjixuejiaweierke·舒shuerci·马malunduofu(Wilko Schulz-Mahlendorf)在zaiLinkedIn的degerenziliaozhongxiedao:“你niliyingjiduwomenzhengzaiyanjiudegezhongwenti,以yijiwomennenggouhuodedehailiangshuju。”

xianzai,正zhengshizhexiezhimingxuefuzhengjiangjiqixuexiherengongzhinengzhenghedaotamendekechengzhong。因yinweitamenzhidao,这zhexiedushichulixianyouxinxidejibenjineng,也yeshijiejuedangjinjingjimianlinzuidawentidechulusuozai

duixuduoxuezhelaishuo,这zheliyouyigebulidefangmian:私siyingqiyexianzaichuangzao、控kongzhizhuoliaojiexiandaishijiesuobixudedabufen“原yuancailiao”。

“在zaicizhiqian,经jingjixuejiamendeyanjiuduixiangdushigongkaishuju。”比biatelisi·谢xielier(Beatrice Cherrier)说shuodao,她tashifaguojiazhoudaxue(Universityof Cenerg Pontoise)的dejingjishixuejia。“但danxianzai,这zhexieyoujiazhideshujudushikejiqiyesuoduyoude。”

xielierjieshishuo,这zhebujin使shishijieshangsuoyoudeyamaxunrenbunengfabiaorenhekeneng使shigongsikanqilaibuhaodedong西xi,而erqieye使shitamenhennanfuzhizijikenengfabuderenheyanjiu,因yinweigongsineidesuoyouyuanshujudushibaomide

danshiduiyunaxieyijingzailimianderenlaishuo,亚yamaxunjiushiyigechongmankuailedeyoulechang

dalier·费feierweise(Daryl Fairweet)2014年niancongzhijiagedaxuehuodejingjixueboshixueweihou,不bujiujiujiaruliaoyamaxun

“你nibushiweiliaoyifengongzuobudebuqumianshide,你nikeyizaitongyishijianmianshihenduogongzuo。”费feierweiseshuo,他tayu2018年nianlikailiaoyamaxun,成chengweifangdichanwangzhanRedfin的deshouxijingjixuejia。“一yidanbeiluyong,研yanjiuqijianjiuhuifaxianhenduowenti。如ruguowojuedeyoushimedong西xizhendezhideyanjiudehua,我wokeyiquyanjiuyixia,但danmeiyourenhuitiqiangaosuwoshimecaishizhenzhengzhongyaode。”

lingyigexiyinrendedifangshi:尽jinguanyamaxunjingjixuejiamensuozuodegongzuokenengzaigongsineibuyongyuankanbudaoshuguang,但dantaquehuiyingxiangzhuoguanlicengdejuece,而erzhexiejuecezuyiyingxiangdaoqianbaiwanren。在zaiyamaxun,即ji便bianshizuichujidejingjixuejiadukeyizaigaojifuzongcaimianqianjieshaotamendeyanjiu,并bingkeyiduizijidejianyiduigongsilirunchanshengdeshijiyingxiangjinxingpinggu

“就jiugereneryan,这zhedequelingrenxingfen。因yinweiwosuozuodegongzuoyoumingxiandejiazhi。如ruguojinjinzaixueshuqikanshangfabiaolunwendehua,你nihennanzhidaolifazheshifougenjunideyanjiuzuochuliaobutongdexuanze。但dandangnizaigongsigongzuoshi,你nihuimingxianzhidaozijideyanjiugaibianliaorenmendexiangfa。”费feierweiseshuodao

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