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王涵:债务率软约束, 金融市场将迎来系统性变化

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“王涵论宏观”,作者:王涵。内容摘要中国债市此前扩张的核心逻辑:吃票息。中国固收市场此前收益扩张,其主要的贡献来源是票息收入。而支撑高额票息收入的,实际上是债权资产规模的快速扩张。“M2、社融与名义GDP相匹配”——债务率将约束债….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“王wanghanlunhongguan”,作zuozhe:王wanghan

neirongzhaiyao

zhongguozhaishiciqiankuozhangdehexinluoji:吃chipiaoxi。中zhongguogushoushichangciqianshouyikuozhang,其qizhuyaodegongxianlaiyuanshipiaoxishouru。而erzhichenggaoepiaoxishourude,实shijishangshizhaiquanzichanguimodekuaisukuozhang

“M2、社sherongyumingyiGDP相xiangpipei”——债zhaiwulvjiangyueshuzhaiwukuozhang。从congguojibijiaokan,中zhongguodangqianzhaiwulvyijingpiangao。而erzaizhengcecengmian,也yeyijingyishidaoliaofangfanduiyingjinrongfengxiandezhongyaoxing。因yinci,在zaizhaiwulvdeyueshuxia,未weilaizhaiwukuozhangkenengjiangfanghuan

zhengcegulijiangchengben + 潜qianzaijingjizengsufanghuan——利lilvjiangweichidiwei。从congzhengcekan,国guowuyuanchangwuhuiyihezhengzhijuhuiyiduocitichuyao“降jiangdishitijingjirongzichengben”,这zheduililvshangxingkongjianjiangxingchengyidingyueshu。此ciwai,中zhongguojingjideqianzaizengsujiangxiajiang,而erlilvzhongshuyoujingjideqianzaizengchangzhongshujueding,因yincililvzhongshudagailvjiangweichizaidiwei

liang、价jiashuangshuangshouxian,固gushoushichang“吃chipiaoxi”模moshihuobeidianfu。无wulunshicongkeshengxidejichuzichanguimo(量liang)还huanshililvshuiping(价jia)的dejiaodukan,固gushoushichangpiaoxishouruweilaijunyoujiansuyali。这zheyejiuyiweizhuoguoquyikaochipiaoxiweizhudegushoushichangxuyaoxunzhaoxindeshouyikuozhanglaiyuan

zhaishi:用yongyanshengpinweiliudongxinghexinyongfengxianzaidingjia。基jichuzichankuozhangfanghuan,实shijishangyiweizhuozhaishicongfeijinrongqiyezhonghuoqupiaoxishouyifanghuan,而erweilaideqianzaifazhanfangxiangzhiyijiangshicongjinrongjigouduishoufangzhonghuoqushouyi,即jiliyongyanshengpinduijichuzichandeshuxingjinxingdingjia:其qiyishiweiliudongxingdingjia,通tongguoABS盘panhuofeiliudongxingzichan;其qiershiweixinyongfengzaidingjia,通tongguofazhanCDS对duishouyijinxingfengxiandiaozheng,从congerzhutouzizhefengxianduichong

gushi:在zaijinrongshichangzhongzhongyaoxingshangsheng。债zhaiquanrongzikongjianshouxian,同tongshiyejiangyiweizhuoguquanrongzixuqiudezengjia。与yucitongshi,随suizhuozhongguojingjizhuanxianggaozhiliangzengchangmoshi,在zaizhuanxingguochengzhong,由youyuchuangxinxingdejingjijuyoufengxiangao、收shouyibodongdadetedian,股guquanyebizhaiquangengweishiheqiyerongzi。在zaicibeijingxia,资zibenshichangjiangdayoukewei

fengxiantishi:1)政zhengzhijingjidengtufashijian;2)其qitayuyuqibufudezhengcebianhua

zhengwen

dangqianzhongguozhaiwulvyijingdaodaliaojiaogaodeshuiping,而erzhengfugongzuobaogaozhong“M2、社sherongguimozengsuyaoyumingyiGDP增zengsuxiangpipei”,说shuomingzhengcecengmianchixuguanzhufangkongduiyingdejinrongfengxiandezhongyaoxing。在zaizhaiwulvderuanyueshuxia,中zhongguozhaishiguoqu“吃chipiaoxi”的defazhanmoshikongbeidianfu,而erxiangyingdi,股gushizaijinrongshichangzhongdezhongyaoxingyejiangjinyibushangsheng

zhaiwulvpiangao,对duizhaiquanzichanweilaikuozhangxingchengruanyueshu

bansuizhuojinrongweijihoudefusu,中zhongguofeijinrongbumengangganlvkuaisushangsheng。金jinrongweijihousiwan亿yicijizhengcededabeijingxia,政zhengfujuzhaikuozhangjijian、企qiyejuzhaikuozhangxiangguanchanneng,2009年nianzhongguozhaiwulvkuaisupansheng。但danjijiantouziguodu,新xinjianchannengbingweinengdaidongchangqihuibaolvdehuisheng,从conger使shidezhaiwuyaliwufayouxiaobeihuajie。面mianduizhongchangqizhaiwudaoqiyali,政zhengfujisirenbumenbudebujiejiuhuanxin,使shide2012年nianyilaizhongguozhaiwulvzaicijinrukuaisukuozhangqi。2018年nianzhongguofeijinrongbumengangganlvyijingdadao250%,从congquanqiubijiaokan,处chuyuquanqiuqian40%的deshuiping

congguojibijiaokan,当dangqianzhongguozhaiwulvyichuzaijiaogaoshuiping。经jingguojinrongweijihoujin10年niandekuaisukuozhang,当dangqianzhongguodezhaiwulvyijingdaodaliaojiaogaodeshuiping。从congdangqiandeshijianjiedianhengxiangbijiaolaikan,中zhongguofeijinrongbumengangganlvzaixinxingshichanglidepaixuyijingbijiaokaoqian,甚shenzhigaoyuyixiefadaguojia(比birumeiguo)。

fenbumenlaikan,企qiyezhaiwulvtishengkongjianyejiaoyouxian。分fenbumenlaikan,2018年nian2季jiduzhongguojuminbumengangganlvwei50%,政zhengfubumengangganlvwei48%(考kaolvdifangzhengfurongzipingtaihouyuewei70%),距juliquanqiu75%分fenweishurengyouyidingjuli。但danzhongguozhaiwukuozhangdehexinliliang——企qiyebumen,其qizhaiwulvyijinggaoda155%,即ji使shitichuchengtou,也yegaodayue116%。从congzhegejiaodueryan,如ruguoqiyezhaiwujixuanzhaodangqiansudugundong,其qiqianzaidefengxianyejiangsuizhizengjia,这zheduiyujinrongwendingshibulide

zhaiwulvpiangaodewentiyeyinqiliaozhengcecengmianduifangfanjinrongfengxiandezhongshi。如ruqiansuoshu,无wulunshicongquanshehuijiaodu,还huanshifenbumenjiuqiyeeryan,中zhongguodangqiandezhaiwulvduyijingdadaoliaojiaogaodeshuiping。显xianran,政zhengcecengmianyeyijingyishidaoliaofangfanduiyingjinrongfengxiandezhongyaoxing。2015年nian12月yue,“去quganggan”作zuowei“三sanquyijiangyibu”五wudarenwuzhiyishoucizaizhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyishangbeitichu。2016年niandezhongyangjingjigongzuomingque,去qugangganyaozaikongzhizonggangganlvdeqiantixia,把bajiangdiqiyegangganlvzuoweizhongzhongzhizhong,要yaoguifanzhengfujuzhaixingweideng。2017年nian7月yue,全quanguojinronggongzuohuiyijinyibumingque,要yaobaguoyouqiyejianggangganzuoweizhongzhongzhizhong,严yankongdifangzhengfuzhaiwuzengliang。2018年nian4月yue2日ri,中zhongyangcaijingweiyuanhuizhaokaidiyicihuiyi,首shoucitichu“结jiegouxingquganggan”,为wei“打dahaofangfanhuajiejinrongfengxiangongjianzhan”划huadingjibensilu。2018年nian7月yue23日ri,《人renminribao》发fawencheng“去qugangganchujianchengxiao,我woguojinruwengangganjieduan”。

2019年nian1月yue,偏pianqiangdesherongkeneng使shideshehuishangchuxianliaoduikuanxinyongguogao、不buheshideyuqi,因yinerzhengfuzaiciqiangdiaobugao“大dashuimanguan”,政zhengfugongzuobaogaozhongzhichuM2和hesherongzengsuyaogenmingyiGDP相xiangshiying,也yeshiduizhaiwudezaiciguoduzengchangdaozhidejinrongfengxiandejingti。可keyikandao,无wulunshi“去quganggan”还huanshi“稳wenganggan”,其qidaoxiangdushikongzhizhaiwulvbuyaokuaisushangsheng

yinci,在zaizhaiwulvdeyueshuxia,未weilaizhaiwukuozhangkenengjiangfanghuan。当dangqian,中zhongguozhaiwulvyijingdaodaliaopiangaodeshuiping,而erzhengcecengmianyeyijingyishidaoliaofangkongduiyingdejinrongfengxiandezhongyaoxing。在zaicibeijingxia,未weilaizhongguozhaiquanzichandekuozhangsududagailvjiangfanghuan

jiangchengbenxuqiu+潜qianzaizengsuxiajiang,利lilvhuoweichixiangduidiwei

zhengcegulijiangdichengben+潜qianzaijingjizengsuxiajiang,利lilvkenenghuiweichizaixiangduidiwei。对duiyuzhaishidepiaoxishourueryan,基jichuzichankuozhangfanghuan,是shishuliangcengmiandezhiyue。而ercongjiagedejiaodulaikan,中zhongguozhengtililvweilaikenengyejiangweichizaixiangduidiwei。其qiyi,从congzhengcekan,国guowuyuanchangwuhuiyihezhengzhijuhuiyiduocitichuyao“降jiangdishitijingjirongzichengben”,财caizhengbu、央yangxing、发fagaiweidengbuweiyechutailiaoyixiliepeihezhengce,政zhengcedaoxiangxialilvjiangweichidiwei。其qier,伴bansuizhuorenjunshourudeshangsheng,产chanyejiegouyouqishiqigongxuguanxifashengbianhua,资ziyuancuopeidaozhishengchanlvxiajiang,叠diejiarenkouhonglixiaoshideng,中zhongguojingjideqianzaizengsujiangxiajiang,而erlilvzhongshuyoujingjideqianzaizengchangzhongshujueding,因yincililvzhongshuyejiangxiaxing。其qisan,较jiaogaodezhaiwulvsuoyinfadeduijinrongfengxianshangshengdedanyou,可kenenghuidaobiyangxingweichixiangduikuansong。因yinci,利lilvweilaikenengjiangweichizaixiangduidiwei

liang、价jiashuangshuangshouxian,固gushoushichang“吃chipiaoxi”模moshihuobeidianfu

liang、价jiayinsudiejia,固gushoushichang“吃chipiaoxi”模moshizengchangkongjiankongjiangyouxian。中zhongguogudingshouyishichangciqianshouyidekuozhang,其qizhuyaodegongxianlaiyuanshijishangshipiaoxishouru。根genjuwomengusuan,2018年nianzhongguozhengtizhaiquanzichanchanshengdelixizhichuyuewei13.5万wan亿yi(规guimoyueweidangnianGDP的de15%),而erzhengfubumendelixizhichu,其qiguimoyedadaoliaosherongguimode65%。

danshiruqianfenxi,无wuluncongkeshengxidejichuzichanguimo(量liang)还huanshililvshuiping(价jia)的dejiaodu,中zhongguo债券市场depiaoxishouruzengsu,未weilaikongpajiangyousuoxiajiang,进jineryeyiweizhuo,过guoquyikaochipiaoxiweizhuyaoluojikuozhangdegushoushichang,未weilaixuyaoxunzhaoxindefazhanfangxiang

zhaishi:用yongyanshengpinweiliudongxinghexinyongfengxianzaidingjia

jinrongyanshenggongjunengweiweilaizhaiquanshichangzengjiaxindezichankongjian。如ruqiansuoshu,伴bansuizhuozhongguozhaiquanshichangdepiaoxishouruzengsudefanghuan,中zhongguogushoushichangweilaiyexuyaoxunzhaoxindefazhanfangxiang。而erruguoshuo,此ciqianjichuzichankuozhangfanghuanyiweizhuo,此ciqiancongfeijinrongbumenzhonghuoqudeshouyijiangfanghuan。那name,对duigudingshouyishichangeryan,未weilaiyigekenengdefangxiangshi,从congjinrongjigouduishoufangzhonghuoqushouyi,即jijiyujichuzichanchuangshejinrongyanshenggongju,对duijichuzichandeshuxingjinxingzaidingjia。具jutieryan

(1)发fazhanABS:将jiangfeiliudongxingzichanzhuanhuaweikeliutongzhaiquan,为weiliudongxingshuxingdingjia。发fazhanzichanzhengquanhua(ABS),其qihexinshipanhuoyinxingdezichanduan,通tongguodicengzichanchanshengdeweilaixianjinliuzuoweitouzihuibao,将jiangliudongxingjiaochadedicengzichanzhuanhuaweikeliutongzhai。而ertongguoduiABS的dejiaoyi,实shijishangshiduidicengzichanliudongxingdezaidingjia。虽suiranABS在zai2005年nianjiuyijingzaizhongguokaishishidian,但danzhizhi2014年nianxiliejianshezhengcedetuijin,中zhongguoABS市shichangcaikaishijinrukuaisukuozhangqi。而erxuyaoyishidaodeshi,与yujichuzichandaikuanguimoxiangbi,当dangqianABS产chanpinguimorengranxiangdangyouxian。而ercongguojiduibikan,相xiangjiaoyumeiguo,中zhongguodeABS产chanpinrengranyouhendadefazhankongjian

(2)发fazhanCDS:更gengzhuzhongfengxiandiaozhenghoushouyi,信xinyongfengxiandingjiaxuqiujiangmingxianshangsheng。此ciqianyinweizhaiwuzaibuduandekuozhang,实shijishangshiewaideyadiliaoweiyuefengxian。但danxianzaizhaiwukuozhangmianlintianhuabanzhihou,违weiyuefengxianhuizhujianhuiguizhongchangqidezhongchangqishuiping。那nameyejiuyiweizhuozaitongyangdepiaomianlilvdeqingkuangzhixia,现xianzaixinyongzhaidetouzixuyaochengdangengdadexinyongfengxian。或huozheshuo,对duiyuxinyongfengxiandedingjiaguanzhuhuishangsheng。此ciwai,伴bansuizhuo2016-2017年nianduoxiangtuodizhengcedezhicheng,信xinyongmingxiankuozhang。而er2018年niantuodizhengcexiaoguoxiao退tui,信xinyongfengxianyezhububaolu,违weiyueshijianmingxianzengjia,这zheyezengjialiaoduixinyongfengxiandingjiadexuqiu。而eryuyinxingtoufangxindaibutong,ABS的degoumaizhequefayouxiaodefengxianjiancejizhi,CDS对duiyuABS市shichangyeshirangtouzizheduichongxinyongfengxiandeyigezhongyaogongju。从congzhegejiaodulaishuo,CDS也yejiangshiABS市shichangfazhandeyouxiaobuchong

gushi:在zaijinrongshichangzhongzhongyaoxingshangsheng

jingjizhuanxingbeijingxia,债zhaiquankongjianshouxianyejiangyiweizhuoqiyeduizibenshichangyilaidushangsheng。债zhaiquanrongzikongjianshouxian,同tongshikenengyejiuyiweizhuoguquanrongzixuqiudezengjia。而ersuizhuozhongguojingjizhuanxianggaozhiliangzengchangmoshi,未weilaiduizibenshichangdeyilaijiangjinyibushangsheng。在zaizhuanxingguochengzhong,由youyuchuangxinxingdejingjijuyoufengxiangao、收shouyibodongdadetedian,股guquanbizhaiquangengweishiheqiyerongzi。美meiguoweili,初chuchuangqiyezhongguquanrongzidebilijiaogao,其qizhongpeiyuliaobaokuoFacebook在zaineidehoulaidelongtouqiye。当dangqianzhongguoshangshigongsishizhizhanGDP比bilijin69%,低diyudabufenfadaguojiaheyindu、泰taiguodengbufenxinxingshichangguojia,仍rengyoujiaodadefazhankongjian。在zaicibeijingxia,未weilaizhongguoshichangjiangdayoukewei

fengxiantishi:1)政zhengzhi、经jingjidengfangmiandetufashijian;2)其qitayuyuqibufudezhengcebianhua


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