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广发海外:宽裕“北水”会不会“南下”溢至港股?继续配置保险、汽车等

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“广发港股策略”,作者:廖凌。报告摘要●港股策略周论:宽裕“北水”会不会“南下”溢至港股?近期南下资金流入有所回暖,3月以来的2周“南下资金”净流入会不会成为趋势?本期策论我们将重点分析大家关心的“北水南下”问题。长期而言,内地资金“….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“广guangfa港股celue”,作zuozhe:廖liaoling

baogaozhaiyao

● 港gangguceluezhoulun:宽kuanyu“北beishui”会huibuhui“南nanxia”溢yizhiganggu

jinqinanxiazijinliuruyousuohuinuan,3月yueyilaide2周zhou“南nanxiazijin”净jingliuruhuibuhuichengweiqushi?本benqicelunwomenjiangzhongdianfenxidajiaguanxinde“北beishuinanxia”问wenti

changqieryan,内neidizijin“南nanxia”战zhanluexingpeizhiganggudeluojiyiranchengli。内neidipangdadecunliangcaifuquefahaiwaipeizhiqudao,通tongguoxianggangpeizhiquanqiuzichandequshibingweigaibian

dan“北beishuinanxia”并bingmeiyouchuyuzuijiadehuanjing,持chixuxingshangdaijianyan。国guoneiliudongxingchongyuqu使shibufenzijinqingxiangyu“南nanxia”配peizhiganggu,但danyuji“溢yichu”体tiliangjiaoyouxian;而errenminbishengzhi、港gangbibianzhidezuheyouliyubeishangzijinliuruA股,对duiyunanxiazijinliuruganggucijishenwei

duanqieryan,南nanxiazijinquyujieduanxinghuinuan。春chunjiehouzhi3月yuechuA股guxiangbiganggu“凌lingli”的dezhangfukuaisutuigaoAH溢yijia,使shideganggu“性xingjiabi”凸tuxian,充chongyuliudongxingyuqixiabufen“北beishui”倾qingxiangyumairuguzhigengdideganggu,但dangengqingxiangyuduanqizengpei

touzicelue:走zoushigengjiabozhe,关guanzhuhaiwaishijianyanbian。外waizizaigangbibianzhi、避bixianqingxuyingxiangxiarengqingxiangyujieduanxingchechu,预yuji3月yuefenganggushichangmianlingengdadeshangxingzuli。继jixupeizhiruozhouqihezaozhouqi,如rubaoxian、汽qiche、科kejigu(光guangxue、电dianxun、互hulianwang)等deng;短duanqiguanzhugaoguxigegu(香xianggangbendigu、公gongyongshiye)。

● 风fengxiantishi

美元、美meizhaishouyilvdafushangxing;国guoneixinyongzhengcechixushoujin;盈yinglibudayuqi

baogaozhengwen

1 港gangguceluezhoulun:宽kuanyu“北beishui”会huibuhui“南nanxia”溢yizhiganggu

benzhouganggushichangbiaoxianhaoyuA股gu,南nanxiazijinhuinuan美股fandanshizhuyaocuihuayinsu。恒hengshengzhishuyuhengshengguoqizhishufenbieshangzhang2.78%和he3.15%;恒hengshengyijixingyefangmian,所suoyoubankuaiquanbushangzhang,电dianxunhenengyuanbankuailingzhang

jinqinanxiazijinliuruyousuohuinuan,唤huanqiliaotouzizheduiyu16-17年nian“北beishui”大daliang“南nanxia”的demeihaojiyi。但dan3月yueyilaide2周zhou“南nanxiazijin”净jingliuruhuibuhuichengweiqushi?在zaigangbiduimeiyuanhuilvjiejinruofangduihuanbaozheng、且qierenminbishengzhideshijianchuangkou,“北beishuinanxia”的dechixuxingrengrancunzaiyidingyiwen。近jinqinanxiazijinhuinuanyuanyunaxieyuanyin?哪naxieyinsuyingxiangliaonanxiazijinzhongduanqizouxiang?本benqicelunwomenjiangzhongdianfenxidajiaguanxinde“北beishuinanxia”问wenti

1.1 “北beishui”暂zanbuhuidaguimo“南nanxia”——不bujubeizuiyoudehuilvtiaojian

changqieryan,内neidi“南nanxia”资zijinzhanluexingpeizhiganggudeluojiyiranchengli。内neidipangdadecunliangcaifuquefahaiwaipeizhiqudao,“北beishui”通tongguoxianggangshichangpeizhiquanqiuzichandequshibingweigaibian:1)对duiyubaoxianzijineryan,港ganggushichangjiaogaodeguxilv、适shihechangqitouzideturangjuyouchongzudexiyinli;2)2020年nianziguanxinguishishihou,银yinxingziguanzigongsilicaiweilaijiangxianggongmuhuakaolong,数shuwan亿yizijinduiwaijingxihuapeizhi,香xianggangshichangshihaiwaipeizhidezuijiachuangkou

dan“北beishuinanxia”的dezhongqiluojitongshishoudaoguoneiliudongxing、人renminbihuilvhegangyuanhuilvyingxiang,当dangqianbingmeiyouchuyuzuijiadeshichanghuanjing——国guoneijiaoweichongyudeliudongxingyoukeneng“溢yichu”至zhiganggushichang,但dan“人renminbishengzhi、港gangbibianzhi”的dehuilvzuhebuliyu“北beishuinanxia”。

jiaoweiyoulideshiguoneiliudongxinghuanjingjiaoweichongyu。市shichangliudongxingfangmian,年nianchuyilaiyinxingjian债券市场zijinchongyu,不butongqixiandezijinjiagedatichengxiaxingqushi;宏hongguanliudongxingfangmian,社sherongcunliangzengsuqiwen、货huobihuohuachengdugaishan,紧jinxinyonghequganggandedanyoudaweihuanjie。我womenrenwei,国guoneiliudongxingchongyuqu使shibufenzijinqingxiangyu“南nanxia”配peizhiganggu,但danyuji“溢yichu”体tiliangjiaoyouxian,个gezhongyuanyoubaokuo:其qiyi,19年nianbushi“大dashuimanguan”,流liudongxingshangweifanlan;其qier,国guonei“稳wenganggan”和heyankonghaiwaitouzifengxiandebeijingxia,“北beishuinanxia”的detilianghepeizhiqudaojunshouxian

jiaobulideshidangqiande“人renminbisheng、港gangyuanhuilvbian”的dezuhe——人renminbishengzhi、港gangbibianzhidezuheyouliyubeishangzijinliuruA股gu,但danduiyunanxiazijinliuruganggucijishenwei

diyi,较jiaoruodegangyuanduimeiyuanhuilvshiyingxiangnanxiazijinmairuganggudezhongyaozuai,近jinqigangyuanhuilvjiejinruofangduihuanbaozheng,若ruochixushijianguochang,势shibiyingxiangxianggangshichangliudongxing,压yazhiganggubiaoxian,不buliyunanxiazijinliuru

dier,人renminbishengzhibeijingxia,“北beishang”投touzigengjuxiyinli;加jiashangA股gu“入rumo”对duigangguzaixinxingshichangzhishuzhongdequanzhongcunzaiyidingchongji,中zhongqineipeizhiA股gugengyouli

disan,Libor-Hibor利lichakuodashi,美meiyuantaolijiaoyizengjia,资zijinkenengwaitaochuganggu,也yebuliyuganggushichangliudongxing,南nanxiazijinliuruyejiangshouyingxiang。而er19年nianchuyilaide美联储“转zhuange”使shideLibor-Hibor利lichashouzhai,因yincimeiyuantaoliduinanxiazijinliurudefumianyingxiangxiajiang

conglishiguilvlaikan,“人renminbiwenhebianzhi、港gangbixiangduiwending”是shiliyunanxiazijinliurudezuiyouhuilvzuhe,加jiashangruguomeiyuanzichantaolijiaoyijianshao使shidezijinwaitaoyalixiajiang,南nanxiazijinquxiangyuchixuliuru,当dangqianbingbujubeizheyangdetiaojian

1.2但danAH溢yijiadexunsutaisheng,使shidenanxiazijinduanzanhuinuan

shengangtongkaitonghou,南nanxiazijinduiAH溢yijiagengjiamingan,“北beishuinanxia”的deduanqiluojihuanshoudao“AH比bijiaxiaoying”的deyingxiang——对duiyuguoneizijineryan,互hulianhutongjizhikaitonghou,A股guheganggukeleibiweilianggexianghulianjie、但danrongnatiliangbutongde“蓄xushuichi”,当dangliangdishichangxiangduiguzhichuxianjieduanxing“失shiheng”后hou,资zijinqingxiangyuxunzhao“水shuiweigengdi”的deshichangjinxingpeizhi。2月yuefenzhi3月yuechu,A股guxiangbiganggu“凌lingli”的dezhangfukuaisutuigaoAH溢yijia,使shideganggu“性xingjiabi”凸tuxian,充chongyuliudongxingyuqixiabufen“北beishui”倾qingxiangyumairuguzhigengdideganggu

congnanxiazijinjinnian2月yueyilaijingmairujinejiaodadegegulaikan,AH均junshangshidezhongzijinronggumingxianzengduo、香xianggangbendihewaizigu(汇huifengkonggu、友youbangbaoxiandeng)净jingmairuliangjianshao,一yidingchengdushangyekeyiyanzhengnanxiazijinjinxing“AH价jiachajiaoyi”的dexingquzengjia

1.3 投touzicelue:走zoushigengjiabozhe,关guanzhuhaiwaishijianyanbian

jinqinanxiazijinliuruyousuohuinuan,港ganggu3月yuefenyilaidebiaoxianhaoyushichangjiwomendeyuqi。在zaihaiwaishichangbodonglvyoukenengjiajudaozhihaiwaizijinliuruquhuandebeijingxia(参cankaobaogao《又youdaoduanqizuoduobodonglvdechuangkouqi——港gangguceluezhoulun3月yuedi2期qi,2019-3-10),南nanxiazijindechixuliuruduiyuwendinggangguzoushijiaoweiguanjian。3月yueyilaide2周zhou“南nanxiazijin”净jingliuruhuibuhuichengweiqushi?对duici,我womendehexinguandianruxia

changqieryan,内neidi“南nanxia”资zijinzhanluexingpeizhiganggudeluojiyiranchengli。但dan“北beishuinanxia”并bingmeiyouchuyuzuijiadeshichanghuanjing,中zhongqineichixuxingshangdaijianyan。尽jinguanguoneiliudongxingchongyuqu使shibufenzijinqingxiangyu“南nanxia”配peizhiganggu,但danyuji“溢yichu”体tiliangjiaoyouxian;而errenminbishengzhi、港gangbibianzhidezuheyouliyubeishangzijinliuruA股gu,对duiyunanxiazijinliuruganggucijishenwei

duanqieryan,A股guxiangbiganggu“凌lingli”的dezhangfukuaisutuigaoAH溢yijia,使shideganggu“性xingjiabi”凸tuxian,充chongyuliudongxingyuqixiabufen“北beishui”倾qingxiangyumairuguzhigengdideganggu,因yinernanxiazijinquyujieduanxinghuinuan

jiugangguweilaizoushieryan,我womenrenweiweilaiyiduanshijianxuyaojingtibodonglvkuaisushangxingdailaideguzhiyazhi,但danguoneiyinsuzanshifengxianbuda,包baokuonanxiazijinliuruhezhengceluodisududeng。总zongtieryan,3-4月yuefenshoudaojibenmianhehaiwaiyinsuyingxiang,港ganggubiaoxianjianggengweibozhe,一yifangmianshijibenmianyuqidexiaxiuyalijiangjizhongtixian,加jiashangshichangduiyuhaiwaifengxiandeleguanqingxucunzaibeinizhuandekeneng,因yinciganggushichangshangxingrengyoulaiyugengduojijiyinsudepeihe

touziceluefangmian,尽jinguanjinqinanxiazijinliuruyousuohuinuan,但danwaizizaigangbibianzhi、避bixianqingxuyingxiangxiarengqingxiangyujieduanxingchechu,预yuji3月yuefenganggushichangmianlingengdadeshangxingzuli,策celueshangjianyijiao1-2月yuefenshidujinshen。配peizhishang,继jixuweiraoruozhouqihezaozhouqizhu线xianbuju,重zhongdianxingyebaokuo:保baoxian、汽qiche、科kejigu(光guangxue、电dianxun、互hulianwang)等deng,短duanqikeguanzhugaoguxilvbankuai,如ruxianggangbendigongsi、公gongyongshiyedeng

shichanggailanyuqingxugenzong:本benzhou(3.11-3.15)恒hengshengzhishushangzhang2.78%,恒hengshengyijixingyequanbushangzhang,电dianxunyelingzhang。HVIX指zhishu、主zhubangukongbili、看kandiekanzhangqiquanbilijunxiaofuxiajiang

hongguanliudongxingyuguzhigenzong:本benzhou(3.11-3.15)人renminbihuilvbianhuafudujiaoxiao。10年nianqimeizhaishouyilvxiadiezhi2.59%,中zhongmeilichakuodazhi55BP。wtiyuanyoujiage58.5美meiyuan/桶tong。恒hengshengzhishuPE 10.91倍bei,略luegaoyulishijunzhi

yizhiyuqiEPS跟genzong:本benzhou(3.11-3.15)彭pengboduiyuhengshengzhishuheguoqizhishu19年nianEPS一yizhiyuqizengsuxiaofuxiadiao

nanxiabeishangzijingenzong:本benzhou(3.11-3.15)南nanxiazijinjingliuru31.1亿yiyuan,北beishangzijinjingliuru12.8亿yiyuan。港gangguchengjiaoezhongnanxiazijincanyuzhanbixiaofuxiajiang

fengxiantishi

美元指数、美meizhaishouyilvdafushangxingdefengxian

guoneixinyongzhengcechixushoujindefengxian

shangshigongsiyinglibudayuqidefengxian

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