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荀玉根:从交易和资金层面来看,现在市场有多热?

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:
文章摘要:本文来自微信公众号“股市荀策”,作者:荀玉根、郑子勋。核心结论:①交易层面看,市场热度类似历史上牛市中后期,观测指标如指数月(周)涨幅、涨停股占比、换手率、融资交易占比、创业板成交占比、分级基金和新股溢价率。②资金层面看,年初至今增量资金整体….

benwenlaiziweixingongzhonghao“股gushixunce”,作zuozhe:荀xunyugen、郑zhengzixun

hexinjielun:①交jiaoyicengmiankan,市shichangreduleisilishishangniushizhonghouqi,观guancezhibiaoruzhishuyue(周zhou)涨zhangfu、涨zhangtingguzhanbi、换huanshoulv、融rongzijiaoyizhanbi创业板chengjiaozhanbi、分fenjijijinhe新股yijialv。②资zijincengmiankan,年nianchuzhijinzengliangzijinzhengtiwenhe,类leisilishishangniushidiyijieduan,其qizhongwaizihegangganzijinshangshengjiaomingxian。市shizhijixuzengchangxuyaochangwaizijinchixuruchang,靠kaocunlianghuanshouhuoyuehegangganzijinhuanbugou。③目muqianshiniushidiyijieduanjiyunyuzhunbeiqi,特tezhengshilunzhangpuzhang、回huichejiaoda,保baozhushouyishizhongdian。牛niushidierjieduanjiquanmianbaofaqidexinhaoshijibenmianjiandi,届jieshichuxianzhudaochanye

xianzaishichangyouduore

1月yue4日riyilaishichangyizhizaishangzhang,其qizhongeryueyilaishangzhangkaishijiasu,进jinru3月yuehougezhonggainianzhutichaozuobuduan,于yushiyourendiaokanshichangshangzhangguokuai,以yimuqiandezhangshilaikan,2015年niandusuanmanniuliao,那namejinqizheyiduanshijiandeshichangdaodiyouduore?本benwenduicijinxingfenxi


1.交jiaoyicengmiankanshichangredu

congzhangdiejiaodukan,市shichangreduleisilishishangniushizhonghouqi。我womenfenbiecongzhishuzhangfu、涨zhangtingguzhanbi、换huanshoulv、融rongzijiaoyizhanbisigejiaodulaihengliangmuqianshichangderedu。第diyi,涨zhangfufangmian,2019年nian2月yueshangzhengzongzhizhangfuwei14%,创业板指zhangfuwei25%,上shangzheng50涨zhangfuwei10%,沪深300zhangfuwei15%,各gegezhishu2月yuezhangfujunjiaoda,历lishishangdanyuezhangfuchaoguo19年nian2月yuedeyuefenjunchuzainiushidier、第disanjieduan,如ru06/11-06/12月yueyiji15/03-15/04月yue,其qizhongchuangyebanzhi19年nian2月yuezhangfugengshichuangzhishudanshengyilaixingao。从congzhouduzhangfukan,近jinsizhouzhangfupingjunhougedazhishuzhouduzhangfuchuzai2005年nianyilaigaowei,上shangzhengzongzhisizhouzhoujunshangzhang3.1%,涨zhangfuchuzailishiyoudidaogao87%的deshuiping,创chuangyebanzhisizhouzhoujunzhangfu/历lishifenweiwei5.2%/97%,上shangzheng50 2.4%/82%、沪hushen300 3%/87%, 19/02/25-19/03/01当dangzhousidazhishudanzhouzhangfujunchuang2019年nianxingao,上shangzhengzongzhi、创chuangyebanzhi、上shangzheng50、沪hushen300单danzhouzhangfufenbiewei6.8%、7.7%、7.5%、6.5%,均junchuzailishishang95%以yishangdefenwei,历lishishanggedazhishurucigaodedanzhouzhangfujunchuxianzainiushizhonghouqi,如ru06/12、09/12-09/12、14/10-14/12与yu15/03-15/06。第dier,从congzhangtinggegushukan,19年nian3月yueyilairijunzhangtingbangeguzhanquanbuA股debizhongyijingjiejin4%,处chuyu2005年nianyilaicongdidaogao94%的deshuiping,历lishishanggaibizhijiejinhuochaoguo4%的deyuefenjunchuyuniushizhonghouqi,如ru06/06、07/04-07/06与yu15/03-15/06。第disan,从conghuanshoulvkan,3月yueyilaiquanbuA股guyuchuangyebanzhiderijunnianhuahuanshoulvfenbiewei540%、1317%,2005年nianyilaiquanbuA股guhuanshoulvdegaodidianfenbiewei1714%和he83%,2009年nianyilaichuangyebantichuchenglichujizhoudejizhihouhuanshoulvdegaodidianfenbiewei5107%和he336%,目muqianwandequanA与yuchuangyebanhuanshoulvfenbiechuzaigezi80%、83%的defenwei,接jiejin15/03-15/04的deshuiping。第disi,从congrongzijiaoyizhanbikan,3月yueyilairijunrongzijiaoyiezhanA股guchengjiaoedebizhongwei10.2%,2013年nianyilairongzijiaoyizhanbizuidiwei3.8%,最zuigaowei19.5%,目muqianchuyu13年nianyilaicongdidaogao70%的defenwei,接jiejinyu14/03-14/05即jiniushidierjieduanquanmianbaofaqideshuiping。从congchuangyebanchengjiaoezhanbikan,3月yueyilaichuangyebanrijunchengjiaoejiejin1700亿yiyuan,最zuigaowei2000亿yiyuan,处chuyu15/05-15/06牛niushihouqideshuiping,成chengjiaoezhanquanbuA股gujiaoyiebizhongchaoguo17%,处chuyulishishang87%的degaofenwei。因yincicongzhangdiejiaodukan,市shichangreduleisilishishangniushizhonghouqideredu

congyijiajiaodukan,市shichangyeyijiaore。我womentongguojiagedebijiaolaihengliangmuqianshichangderedu:第diyi,看kanfenjijijinB溢yijialv。分fenjijijindeB份fenekeyizaigongkaishichangjiaoyi,因yinciB份feneyoulianggejiagezhibiao,一yishizaierjishichangshangdejiaoyijiage,二ershigaifenedeshijijingzhi,价jiagehejingzhidechaechuyijingzhijiushiyi(折zhe)价jialv,而erdangshichangjiaoreshi,溢yijialvwangwanghuizougao。我womenyihushen300B基jijinweiguanchazhibiao,沪hushen300B的dewuripinghuayijialvcong2月yuediyilaixianzhushangsheng,从congzuidide4.6%上shangshengdaomuqiande10.8%,2012年nianyilaigaiyijialvdegaodidianfenbiewei-5%和he43%,目muqiangaiyijialvweiyuliangnianlaigaowei,与yushangyilunniushixiangbi,目muqiandeyijialvdengjiayu15/04-15/05即jiniushidisanjieduanpaomofengkuangqideshuiping。第dier,看kancixinguxiangduixingyedeyijia。当dangshichangjiaoreshi,一yixiexinshangshidegeguwangwanghuixiangduixingyehuodegengdadeguzhiyijia。我womenyishichangreyidezhongxinjiantouhezhongguorenbaoweililaikanmuqianshichangderedu。中zhongxinjiantou18年nian6月yueshangshihouqiPE相xiangduiquanshangxingyeyizhiwendingzai1倍beizuoyou,PB相xiangduixingyeyuezai1.3倍beizuoyou,但danshijinru19年nian3月yue,其qiPE相xiangduixingyedebizhichonggaodao1.8倍bei,PB比bizhichonggaodao2.5倍bei,均junchuangshangshiyilaixingao;中zhongguorenbao18年nian11月yueshangshihouqiPE相xiangduixingyeyizhiwendingzai0.7倍beizuoyou,PB相xiangduixingyeyuezai1倍beizuoyou,但danshi19年nian2月yuezhongyilai,其qiPE相xiangduixingyedebizhichonggaodaozuigaode1倍bei,PB比bizhizuigaodao1.4倍bei,均junchuangshangshiyilaixingao,但danshizuijinyizhouzhongguorenbaoguzhikaishihuidiao,其qiPE相xiangduixingyedebizhiyihuiluodao0.8倍bei,PB比bizhihuiluodao1.1倍bei,基jibenjiejinzhengchangshuiping。因yincicongjijinyijiayuxinguyijiadejiaodukan,目muqianshichangreduyechuzaijiaogaowei

2.资zijincengmiankanshichangredu

nianchuyilai,增zengliangzijinzhengtiwenhe,其qizhongwaizihegangganzijinshangshengjiaoweimingxian。全quanbuA股gudechengjiaojinecongnianchu2440点diande3200亿yiyuanshangshengzhijinzuigaode11800亿yiyuan,增zengchangliao270%,除chuliaoquanbuA股gunianhuahuanshoulvcongzuidide160%上shangshengdaozuigaode606%外wai,我womenrenweiyidinghuanyoubufenzijinruchanglaituidongshichangxiangshang。从congzijingenzonglaijiangkeyigenzongjigezhuti:一yishisanhuzijin。由youyuyinzhengzhuanzhangyitingzhigongbu,我womenyongkaihushulaihengliangsanhudeqingkuang,开kaihushuzhibiaoyikanzhongzhengdeng2月yue27日rigongbude“新xinzengtouzizheshuliang”,2月yue22日ridangzhouxinzengtouzizhe31.6万wanren,环huanbizengjia50%,相xiangjiaoyu1月yue4日rizuidide12万wanrenduozengliaojiejin20万wan,创chuang18年nian4月yueyilaixingao,因yincigaizhibiaoyiquerenchudihuisheng。但danshilachangshijiankan,2015年nian5月yuegaizhibiaogongbuyilaijunzhiwei34万wan,目muqianshangbudaojunzhishuiping;开kaihuzhibiaoerkanshangjiaosuo3月yue12公gongbudeA股guzhanghuxinzengkaihushu,19年nian2月yuexinzeng165万wanhu,仍rengchuzai15年nianxiabannianyilaidediwei。新xinkaihudesanhuwangwangshixiaosan,资zijintiliangbingbuda,因yincicongkaihushutuicesanhuzijinruchangbingbuduo。二ershigongmujijin。我womenyongjijinfenedebianhualaihenglianggongmujijinzengjiaderuchangqingkuang,该gaizhibiaotichuliaozhangjiayinsudeyingxiang。19年nian2、3月yuegupiaoxingyu混合型基金hejifenebianhuafenbiewei6亿yifenhe100亿yifen,2005年nianyilaijunzhiwei136亿yifen,这zhelianggeyuedeyuedubiandongzhizailishishangshuyushijixiaodebiandong,从congcunliangkan,18年nian12月yuedishigupiaoxingyuhunhexingjijinfenehejigong23071份fen,目muqiangaifenewei23278份fen,增zengfubudao1%,因yincinianchudidianyilaigongmujijinliurugushidezijinyebuduo。三sanshi私募基金。私simujijindecangweihefenedumeiyougongkaishuju,我womenzhinengguancedaoguimoshuju。规guimozhibiaoyikanzhongjixiegongbudesimuzhengquantouzijijincunliangguimo,2019年nian1月yuewei2.1万wan亿yiyuan,已yijinglianxu13个geyuexiahua,相xiangjiao18年nian12月yuezaicidafuxiahua0.1万wan亿yiyuan;规guimozhibiaoerkanfaxingliang,根genjuwandetongji2019年nian2月yue、3月yuelianggeyuegupiaoxinghehunhexingsimufenbiefaxing8.5亿yiyuanhe3亿yiyuan,在zailishishangchuyujidideweizhi,低diyu2018年nianquanniandejunzhi41亿yiyuan,所suoyi2月yueyilaidexingqingsimujijincanyuyebuduo。四sikanwaizihexianzi。险xianzifangmian,银yinbaojianhuigongbudeshujuzhigengxindao18年nian12月yue,暂zanshimeiyougenggaopindeshujukeyigenzong;外waizifangmian,北beishangzijinsuiran19年nian1、2月yuedafuliuruchao600亿yiyuan,但danshijinrusanyuehouzijinliurumingxianfanghuan,至zhijinjinliuru60亿yiyuan,低diyu14年nian11月yueyilaidejunzhi145亿yiyuanyiji18年nianquannianjunzhi245亿yiyuan。因yinciconggegejiaodukan,市shichanggegezhuyaocanyuzhebencirushizijinjunbuda,而erchangneirongziyuecong2月yuechudenianneididian7100亿yiyuanshangshengdaozuigaode8800亿yiyuan,上shangzhang24%,融rongziyuezhanquanbuA股guziyouliutongshizhidebizhongyecongzuidide3.7%上shangshengdao4.0%,场changwaidegangganzijinyouyugangganbiligenggao,应yinggaihuibichangneiderongziyuegengduo,因yincibenlunxingqingzhongdezijinzhongwaizihegangganzijinzengjiazuimingxian

congzijinmiankan,目muqianzijinrushiqingkuangleisiyulishiniushidiyijieduan。历lishishujuxianshi,2012年nianyilaiyueduzijinliurujunzhiwei660亿yi,2019年nian1-3月yuegushizijinliurufenbiewei160亿yiyuan、1080亿yiyuanyu760亿yiyuan,三sangeyueyuejun(三sanyueyongbangeyuetuisuanquanyue)为wei800亿yiyuan,目muqianzhishiluegaoyujunzhi,处chuyu13年niandi14年nianchubijiaowenhedeshuiping。虽suiranzijinliurusihubuduo,但danshishichangshangzhangdefuduhuanshihenmingxiande,主zhuyaohuanshihuanshoulvjiaogaoyijigangganzijinderuchang。我womenzai《市shichangredu:春chunnuan,未weixiare——15年nianceluezhizijinrushixiangjie(5)-20150326》中zhongfenxiguo,市shichangdeshangzhangxuyaoliangjiapeihe,换huanshoulvguranzhongyao,但danshidaliangzijinyebibukeshao。从conglishishangkan,14/07-15/03期qijianzijinjingliuru(已yikouchuIPO、交jiaoyishuifei、产chanyezibenjianchidengxiangmu)3万wan亿yiyuan,同tongqiA股guziyouliutongshizhizengchang8.3万wan亿yiyuan,资zijinbianliangbishangziyouliutongshizhibianliangdebizhiwei36%。同tongli,14/07-15/06整zhenggeniushijieduanzijinjingliuru9.5万wan亿yiyuan,自ziyouliutongshizhicong9万wan亿yiyuanshangshengdao29万wan亿yiyuan,资zijinbianliangbishangziyouliutongshizhibianliangdebizhiwei45%,全quanbuA股guzongshizhicong27万wan亿yiyuanshangshengdao76万wan亿yiyuan,资zijinbianliangbishangzongshizhibianliangdebizhiwei20%。因yinciconglishishangkan,1万wan亿yiyuandezijinjingliurudayuenengtuidong2-3万wan亿yiyuanziyouliutongshizhi,而ernianchuzhijinkeyitongjidaodezijinjingliuruguimoyue2000亿yiyuan,同tongqiA股guziyouliutongshizhicongzuidide16.9万wan亿yiyuanshangshengdaomuqiande21.7万wan亿yiyuan,4.8万wan亿yiyuandeziyouliutongshizhibianhuaduiyingzhuozhiyou2000亿yiyuandezengliangzijin,资zijinlianghuanyuanyuanbugou。市shizhidezengchangxuyaoliangjiadepeihe,目muqianhuanshoulvyijingchuzailishigaowei,上shangshengkongjianyouxian,之zhihougengdadexingqingruniushidierdisanjieduandeqidongxuyaodaliangzijinchixubuduandiruchang,而erzijindedaliangruchanglibukaijibenmiandezhichi,只zhiyoujibenmianjiandihuisheng,大daliangzijincaihuipaoburuchang,牛niushicainengcongdiyijieduanzouxiangersanjieduan

3.应yingduicelue:行xingwenzhiyuan

shichangchenggongqiangpaodaoniushidiyijieduanjiyunyuzhunbeiqi。我womenzai《现xianzaileisi2005年nian-20190217》、《市shichangfanzhuanxuyaoshaxinhao?-20190220》中zhongfenxiguo,从conglishiguilvkanshichangzuididiandefanzhuanwangwangxuyao5大dajibenmianlingxianzhibiaozhongyou3个gejiyishangqiwen,1月yueshangzhengzongzhi2440点dianshizhiyousherong1个gezhibiaogaishan,市shichang便bianqiangpao,观guanchamuqian5大dajibenmianlingxianzhibiao,社sheronghejijianlianggezhibiaoyijingqiwen:2月yueshehuirongziguimocunliangtongbizengchang10.1%,较jiao1月yue10.4%略lueyouhuiluo,但dangaoyu18年nian12月yuede9.8%,社sherongquerenyijingjiandihuisheng;1-2月yuejijiantouzizengsuwei4.3%,高gaoyu18年nian12月yuede3.8%,基jijiantouziyequerenjiandi。2月yueguanfangPMI回huiluozhi49.2,但dancaixinPMI回huishengdao49.9,PMI也yeyouqiwenjixiang;其qitazhibiaoshangzaitandiqujian,1-2月yuezhongqixiechengyongchexiaoliangtongbidafuxiahuazhi-17.5%,19年nian1-2月yuedichanxiaoliangtongbiyouzhengzhuanfuzhi-3.6%。从conglingxianzhibiaokan,市shichangyijingquerenqiangpaochenggong,2440点dianweidi,市shichangyitandihuishenghoujinruyouce。而erwomenrenwei,本bencigushiqiangpaodeluojizhuyaoyuanzizhengcehongli。2月yue22日rizhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyizhichu“金jinrongshiguojiazhongyaodehexinjingzhengli”,并bingzhichuyao“深shenhuajinronggonggeicejiegouxinggaige”,金jinrongdedingweihengao。我womenzai《当dangqianzhongguoduibi1980年niandaimeiguoxilie》中zhongfenxiguo,过guoqu40年nianwoguorongzifangshiyiyinxingxindaidejianjierongziweizhu,助zhutuiliaogongyehua,目muqianwoguojianggengxiang1980年niandaichudemeiguo,将jiangdalifazhandisanchanyeyouqishikejidengxinxingchanye,需xuyaodalifazhanguquanrongzidaibiaodezhijierongzi。政zhengzhijuhuiyidedingdiaoyushizhuo,我woguojiangjinruguquanrongzidashidai,大dadezhiduhonglizhutuishichangtiqianjiandijinruniushi。我womenzai《牛niushiyousangejieduan-20190303》中zhongzhichu,牛niushiyousangejieduan,第diyijieduanshiyunyuzhunbeiqi,盈yinglihuiluo,流liudongxinggaishantuidongguzhixiufu,第dierjieduanshiquanmianbaofaqi,估guzhiyinglishuangsheng,戴daiweisishuangji,第disanjieduanshipaomofengkuangqi,盈yinglipingwen,资zijindaliangliuru,估guzhizouxiangshimenglv。目muqianshichangleisi05年nian,即jiniushiyunyuzhunbeiqi

niushiyunyuqibodongda,稳wenziweixian。我womenzai《牛niushiyunyuqibodongda-20190310》分fenxiguo,牛niushiyunyuzhunbeiqideshangzhangquefajibenmianzhicheng,市shichangwangwanghuijiner退tuiyi,上shangzhanghouchuxianjiaodahuiche。回huigulishi,上shangzhengzongzhiwangwangzaizuidazhangfudayuezai23-26%处chukaishihuiche,19年nian1月yueyilaishangzhengzongzhiyijingleijizuidashangzhang28%,未weilaikenengyouhuichefengxian。诱youyinkenenglaizihaineiwailiangfang。国guoneifangmian,一yishigenzong经济数据。周zhousigongbude19年nian1-2月yuegongyezengjiazhitongbizengsuhuiluozhi5.3%,接jiexialaiguanzhuweiguanshuju,3月yuexiaxunjinrushangshigongsinianbaojibaojizhongpiluqi,尤youqiguanzhubaimaleigongsiyejishuju。二ershigenzongjinrongjianguan。1月yue13日rizhongjiweisanzhongquanhuizhichuyaojiadajinronglingyufanfulidu。2月yue22日ridezhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyitichu“要yaojiejuejinronglingyutebieshizibenshichangweifaweiguichengbenguodiwenti”。3月yue7日ri广guangdongzhengjianjuzhaojixiaquxiangguanzhengquanyingyebufuzerenzuotan,对duizhengquanjingyingjigoufangfanchangwaipeizifengxiantichumingqueyaoqiu。3月yue8日rizhejiangzhengjianjuzhaokaizuotanhui,会huishanggecanhuijigoujiuruhejiaqiangyichangjiaoyijianguantebieshichangwaipeizijiancedengneirongjinxingliaojiaoliuhuibao。海haiwaifangmian,一yishiquanqiujingjizengsufanghuanjiangjinyibutuoleizhongguowaixu,BDI指zhishucong1月yuechu1282降jiangzhizuijinyizhoude730。二ershiguanzhu美股zoushi,若ruohouqi美联储huobizhengcemeiyoushichangyuqidenamegepaishenzhizhuanying,美meiguhuomianlindiaozhengyali,叠diejiarenminbihuilvyehuishouyingxiang,A股guyejiangshouciraodong。从congshichangfenggekanniushidiyijieduanshangzhangjieduanshijiazhidatai,成chengchangchangxi,而erhuichejieduanyeshijiazhiguxiandie,成chengchangsuihou,上shangzheng50 3月yue4日ridadaogaodianhouzhijinxiadie2.3%,创chuangyebanzhi3月yue12日rijiandinghouzhijinyixiadie3.8%,调diaozhengjixiangyixian。针zhenduihuiche,控kongzhicangweishiyifangmian,结jiegoushangyaozhaozhangfushao,机jigoupeizhishaodebankuai,如ruyinxing。我womentiaoxuan3月yue8日ri(当dangtianshangzhengzongzhixiadie4.4%,成chengchangfenggezhanyou)与yu3月yue13日ri(当dangtianchuangyebanzhixiadie4.5%,价jiazhifenggezhanyou)两liangtian股票型基金dejingzhibianhuazuosandiantu,发faxianjijindepeizhibuxiangyiqiandafuchiyoujiazhigu,已yijingjiaoweijunheng,因yinciyinxinggujubeipeizhijiazhi。牛niushidedierjieduanshiquanmianbaofaqi,信xinhaoshijibenmianguaidianchuxian。全quanmianbaofaqizhongzhudaochanyeyouyuyejigenghao,戴daiweisishuangjidechengshuxiaoyinggengqiang。现xianzaixuyaoweiniushidierjieduanzuozhunbei,重zhongdianshizhaodaozhudaochanye。05-07年nianwoguochuyugongyehuahechengzhenhuajiasujieduan,所suoyiniushizhongzuiqiangdexingyeshidichanlian+银yinxing,而erxianzaidezhudaochanyeshikejihexiaofeifuwu+券quanshang。此ciwai,从cong2-3年niandefenggelundongjiaodu,2019年niankaishishichangfenggejiangpianxiangchengchang,详xiangjian《关guanjianci:龙longtou、成chengchang——2019年nianshichangfenggezhanwang》。主zhutifangmian,近jinqichangsanjiaoquyuyitizhanlueyibeinarudaozhongyangzhengfujisanshengyishizhengfugongzuobaogao,详xiangjian《箭jianzaixianshang——长changsanjiaoyitihuaxilie(4)-20190307》。

fengxiantishi:向xiangshangchaoyuqi:国guoneigaigedalituijin,向xiangxiachaoyuqi:中zhongmeiguanxiehua

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